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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jan 2019

During the election campaign, Bolsonaro avoided talking about economic issues, alleging lack of knowledge of the subject. He stated that the questions should be put to Paulo Guedes. However, after assuming office, he provoked some unnecessary and costly clashes by revealing his intention to impos...

Too many doubts, too many delays, and a step back
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Jan 2019

President Moreno has given preferential attention to the reconstruction of democratic institutions, achieving important even if insufficient outcomes. However, restoration of the macroeconomic and fiscal equilibrium still evidences weaknesses in its conceptual and practical development. A lack of...

Economics: Risk outlook for 2019
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2019

The sharp setbacks experienced by Mexican financial markets and the peso during October and November on often troubling signals emanating from the incoming administration and its congressional majority, as well as the broader international market gyrations of the late autumn, eventually gave way ...

Headline CPI-inflation expected to have fallen to 2.7% yoy in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2019

Tomorrow at 9am BUD time, the KSH is scheduled to publish its consumer price data for December. Analysts contributing to Portfolio.hu's poll expect another sharp drop by the headline rate, to 2.7% yoy from November's 3.1%yoy, and we agree with that forecast. In our own spreadsheet, this result wo...

Politics: Judicial power at a crossroads
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2019

The January 2 vote by the members of Mexico’s Supreme Court to make Arturo Zaldívar the new chief justice was a significant development in the evolving and at times contentious relationship between the new government and the judiciary, which is seen by many as the last major institutional check o...

Apple’s China Problem: Is luxury consumption declining?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jan 2019 · 1 response

The decline in Apple earnings has gotten mixed reports about what it means for consumption in China in general. We use a novel data set to look at consumption trends in China. Our conclusion is that consumption is for the most part concentrated in a small portion of wealthy citizens. Their purcha...

Russia debates criminalizing fake news
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Jan 2019

The Duma (Russian Parliament) has proposed a law that would criminalize offending the state and disseminating disinformation. The Ministry of Communication has argued that it is too far reaching and breaches the constitutional right to freedom of expression. The sanctions would be fines from USD ...

The CA surplus is expected to increase in 2019-2020
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jan 2019

The CA surplus is expected to increase in 2019-2020 on the back of strong exports of natural gas and electronic components, supportive of a strong shekel. The new BoI Governor appears to be in the dovish camp, stressing that rate hikes will depend on an acceleration of inflation. We current expec...

Industrial production still shows no signs of reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jan 2019

Acceleration of the cyclical recovery will require expansion of gross fixed capital formation, leading to a better labor market and thus faster growth of household consumption. Although there are some favorable conditions, such as the low real interest rate and reduced indebtedness of companies, ...

Having the cake and eating it, too
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jan 2019

We are deviating from the weekly format today -- having sent our brief politics update on Friday (Good Tidings, Citizen, January 11, 2019) -- and provide a quick rundown of recent data releases, and share some thoughts on this coming Wednesday’s rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC...

The Finance Ministry confirmed a series of good news on 2018 fiscal results
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2019

Over the last few weeks, a series of good news on the 2018 government budget results were announced, leaked, rumoured or suggested by various sources. Yesterday, the Finance Ministry confirmed a few of them, minister Varga and state secretary Banai having been the speakers. In the main, they said...

2019 likely to be difficult for the United Russia Party
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2019

United Russia (UR) is the main pro-Putin party and it is in for a challenging year. UR's ratings are down. The economy is barely growing and trust in officials is falling. No wonder the state wants more control of the internet. Almost half of Russians regions with a directly elected governor have...

Argentina 2019: At the crossroad again
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 11 Jan 2019

The Argentine economy in Q4 performed at close to our previous forecast. For 2019 and 2020, we now present quantitative forecasts for two scenarios, and discuss a third scenario we cannot quantify. Finally, we will try to guess what political impact these three scenarios would have on the elector...

Russia's road toll system in trouble
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2019

Russia's road toll system is facing difficulty. It is called Platon and was launched in 2015. It involves collecting tolls from vehicles over 12 tons that use federal highways. Truck drivers have it and have blocked roads to weight stations and have impeded construction. Platon is still incomplet...

Rosneft to supply oil by rail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2019

Rosneft has signed a contract to transport oil by train to its Komsomolsk Refinery until June 2019. This is odd because Rosneft just spent USD 702 million on a pipeline. But Rosneft is unhappy with Transneft which has a monopoly on the pipeline. Transneft may be forced to cut its tariffs.

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