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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Low inflation and elevated global risks support rate stability in January
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Dec 2018

Highlights: * Housing starts have slowed this year to an annual pace of 46k units. - On the other hand residential completions have accelerated. - Increasing completions is likely to have a moderating impact on housing rental prices (increasing housing inventory). - Our inflation foreca...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2018
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Dec 2018

Russia vows to restrict NATO warships in Arctic Ocean - On November 30 Russia promised to limit the movement of warships from NATO countries in the Arctic Ocean. This ocean to the north of Russia is of strategic importance. Goods and exported from Russia and imported to Russia via this route. Glo...

US pulling out of Syria strengthens Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2018

Trump announced that the US is withdrawing from Syria. This is largely welcome news in Russia since the Americans sometimes bombed Russia's Syrian allies. On the other hand the US help against ISIS was sometimes useful and Russia now has considerable responsibility, with Iran the other major back...

The European Commission is finally paying its dues, creating abundant liquidity for the government
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Dec 2018

Although neither the government, nor the European Commission are specifically saying so, the publicly available cohesion policy data of the latter make it clear that the EU Commission has just paid very substantial amounts of transfers due to Hungary. Our own estimates show the payments, in Decem...

Putin's annual press conference has only tepid good news
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2018

President Putin held his annual marathon press conference. There was little good news to report. Wages have increased 0.4% YoY - that was the best statistic to report. The president said ''Russia needs a breakthrough'' but did not suggest how this would happen. President Poroshenko of Ukraine was...

Inflation is receding but political uncertainty keeps the risk premium high
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Dec 2018

​Monthly inflation went down in November and will probably recede even more in December. This is the consequence of the stability of the exchange rate that was achieved since the beginning of October when the Central Bank announced its constant monetary base target for the period October 2018 to ...

The Colombian quilting bee
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Dec 2018

​According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a quilting bee is “a social gathering of women at which they work together at making quilts or doing other quilted work”. If the word “women” is replaced by “members of Congress”, we get a pretty good description of what happened with the tax reform (...

How different will be 2019 from 2018?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2018

Ecuador will close year 2018 with a dismal GDP y-o-y growth of 1% and perspectives for 2019 are not more encouraging. Economic transition from the Socialism of the 21st Century to a more sustainable model, will take place later than sooner due to an excessively cautious economic policy and to ...

Year end note
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Dec 2018

In this report, we leave readers with some charts of what we think is the more enduring story moving forward. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

December’s economic work conference
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Dec 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The annual Economic Work Conference ended today, and Beijing has released the official statement summarizing the event. It said most of the things we expected it to say. In 2019 Beijing will continue to try to walk the impossibly fine line between sti...

US Treasury prepares to end RUSAL sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Dec 2018 · 1 response

On December 19 the US Treasury indicated that it intends to end sanctions against En+ Group, RUSAL , JSC Rus Sib Energo (ESE) in the next 30 days. These companies have agreed to restructure under conditions that severely curb the main controller shareholder Oleg Deripaska. This should deal with t...

​New dynamics in Syria and Turko-American relationship
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2018 · 1 response

The agenda is moving at a speed faster than light for me to write the Big Picture piece I’ve been yearning for. Anyway, there is no Big Picture left anymore, Trump has smashed everything into bits and pieces. His sudden and unannounced decision to pull US troops out of Syria, while still subject ...

The RBI governor is likely to find a way to transfer the right amount of money to help the government meet its fiscal targets
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Dec 2018

As a service to our clients, we are reproducing this Op-Ed by Ila Patnaik, which appeared in ThePrint on December 19, 2018. The RBI governor is likely to find a way to transfer the right amount of money to help the government meet its fiscal targets At a time when the Narendra Modi government is ...

Weakened “de facto” president in power starting in January 2019
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2018

January 10 of next year, the day Maduro begins what he considers his second presidential term, will also mark the day that many of his citizens and the rest of the world will see him as now an officially illegitimate president, one who stayed in power through an undemocratic, illegal process. ...

Correction of fuel prices amid rising core inflation creates policy uncertainty
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2018

Q3 GDP growth was revised higher in the second estimate, pushing the seasonally adjusted year-on-year rate slightly above 5%. Growth is increasingly propelled by domestic demand rather than the export-driven industrial sector, which suggests that the trade balance must significantly deteriorate. ...

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