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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

From LEBAC to LELIQ
ARGENTINA · Presentation · 07 Dec 2018

The government is struggling to revert the country's macro imbalances. Central Bank President Guido Sandleris significantly changed the macro policy framework, including unwinding LEBACs. However, the Central Bank must pay a high interest rate to lure banks into the new LELIQs. • Even though the...

World Bank predicts low Russian growth
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Dec 2018

The World Bank issued a forecast predicting Russian growth of only up to 1.5% on average until 2028. This is a far cry from the Russian Government's objective. President Putin decreed that Russia should become a top five economy by 2024. In order to achieve this Russia would have to grow at 4.4.%...

Q3 GDP came out even stronger in second estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2018

KSH's second estimate of Q3 GDP growth was reported at 1.3% qoq, 5.2% yoy, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, revising the preliminary figures of 1.2% qoq, 5% yoy. The upward revision is no big deal in itself, but the new quarterly GDP total and details allow analysts to revisit their full-yea...

​General Flynn and Muhammed bin Salman
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018 · 1 response

I’ve been tardy in contributing to GSP Turkey research output, even though I am itching to write a Big Picture essay. My writer’s block is caused by the lengthy road trip of the towering figure in Turkish politics, President Erdogan. There is still very little background on his critical summit wi...

Inflation slows down in November
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018

Headline inflation eased to 6.0 percent year-on-year in November from 6.7 percent in October, falling near the lower end of the BSP’s forecast range of 5.8-6.6 percent for the month. This is due largely to slower price increases in selected food items namely rice, meat, fish, fruits, and vegetabl...

SA political economy update Q4-2018
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 05 Dec 2018

The past few weeks have registered important developments for the SA political economy landscape. We like to review the key issues:Constitutional Change for Land Expropriation without Compensation (EWC): The much debated, feared, and anticipated Parliamentary support for the change of the constit...

Moreno 2, Vice presidents 0
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicunia, Vicepresident of Ecuador presented her resignation today after accusations of extortion of public servants during Correa’s government. Vicunia has not denied public servants made payments in exchange of public jobs, but she said those payments were “volunta...

Ukraine raises tensions despite Russian attempts at de-escalation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Russia is now allowing Ukrainian merchant ships to and from the Sea of Azov. This is crucial because it allows Ukraine to ship out steel - one of her most valuable exports. President Putin has said that he will allows Ukrainians to become Russian citizens easily. Over a million Ukrainians work in...

COSTA RICA: At last, fiscal reform
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

After almost two decades discussing fiscal reform in Costa Rica, yesterday, December 3, 2018, Congress finally approved the law in the second lecture, with 34 votes in favor and 17 against. The new law was sanctioned the same day by President Carlos Alvarado and Minister of Finance Rocio Aguilar....

The South African economy exits the technical recession in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

Today’s all-important GDP results indicate that the SA economy has pulled out of the recession, as we had anticipated. Stats SA reports that quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP increased by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2018, meaning, indeed, the economy is out of the techni...

Politics: Governors could act as a counterweight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Last Saturday, López Obrador finally assumed the position of President of the Republic after a long transition period of actual government decisions. The two speeches delivered - one in front of Congress and the other before followers in the Mexico City Zocalo central square - were, in essence, t...

CEU's departure from Budapest unlikely to lead to direct negative consequences
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

The Central European University (CEU) announced yesterday that it would move from Budapest to Vienna early next year, as the government had failed to sign an agreement with the State of New York, which would be legally required for CEU to have an operating license in Hungary from January 2019. As...

Budget forecast until 2036 published
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

On 21 November the Russian Ministry of Finance published a budget forecast that goes up to 2036. These forecasts are published every six years. It is a fascinating insight into Russia's economic thinking. Necessarily these have to be the optimistic side of realistic.The forecast notes that fluctu...

New product labeling rules
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018

On 30 November new product labeling rules were introduced in Russia. Labels will be considered 'a state information system'. Business will be given access to data collated thereby.Prime Minister launched a labeling project run by the Center for the Development of Long Term Technologies (TsRPT) in...

Bolsonaro’s cabinet and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Congress enters its last month of activity before the recess. Among the bills on the agenda are the budget, transfer of rights, real estate contracts and the positive registry. Meetings are scheduled between President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and party leaders. Bolsonaro is expected to conclude...

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