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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

President Ramaphosa's Cabinet: Cleansing and Reviving the ANC- It is complicated!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 May 2019

President Ramaphosa have been forced to delay his cabinet appointments and announcement for third time in a row. Not something that he can fully control, and it is all driven by the internal "cleansing processes of the ANC". As part of the ANC's moral revival strategy that Ramaphosa has been cham...

Today's Monetary Council: No measure this time either, just as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 May 2019

The Monetary Council's regular monthly rate-setting meeting today has brought about to no policy change at all, just as expected. Logically so: given the MNB did not tighten policy in any material way between September 2018 and April this year, when adjusted core inflation was rising, why would h...

Expansionary monetary policy likely to continue this year
ISRAEL · Report · 28 May 2019

Highlights: Policy rates remained stable last week, for the following reasons: - Inflation is still hovering slightly above 1%, not moving higher. - The shekel has appreciated by 6% YTD, 1.2% since the last rate decision. - Global downside risks have increased with the trad...

Good news for Russian bank
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 May 2019

At a meeting of VEB.RF the bank decided that this state corporation can take out loans and have them guaranteed by the government. VEB has various investments in mind. National projects have been hard to fund due to limited access to international financial markets.It looks like US sanctions will...

The pension reform war and other battles
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2019

The approval of a robust reform of the social security system is crucial to set the stage for renewed economic expansion. Measured by the insignificant growth of per capita income, the Brazilian economy is nearly in a depression, and faster growth depends on investments revival, something that wi...

Economics: FDI data more troubling than it looks
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2019

Foreign Direct Investment for the first quarter may have come in 66% above levels of the fourth quarter of 2018 thanks in large part to highly favorable seasonality, but compared to a year prior, it fell to its second lowest level for any January-March period in six years, a performance more in l...

Politics: IMSS head quits, dysfunction grows
MEXICO · Report · 28 May 2019

Last week’s decision by the head of the Mexican Social Security Institute to step down was the first cabinet level defection to date in this administration. It also provided the first open statement from within the government of discontent with many ways in which this administration is attempting...

A fork in the road
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 27 May 2019

Going into the second half of the Duterte administration, poll results suggest exceptional executive influence over the legislature that opens up a window which many hope would lead to initiatives that would advance the economic reform agenda, including ramping up the sovereign credit rating to g...

European elections: one piece of good news and two pieces of bad news for Mr. Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2019

At first glance, PM Orbán came very well out of the European Parliament elections held at the weekend. His Fidesz-KDNP coalition won 52.4% of the Hungarian vote, which is a better result than the 47.4% they collected at the latest parliamentary election in March 2018. By this popular vote, Fidesz...

Kolomoyskiy talks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 May 2019

Ihor Kolomoyskiy advised Zelenskiy to default on external debts. A cheeky and provocative advice. Kolomoyskiy gave many other interviews throwing to the pubic verity of quite controversial messages. Many of those statements go in contrast to what Zelenskiy himself or his advisors claim. What is g...

Between a rock and a hard place
TURKEY · Report · 26 May 2019 · 1 response

The politics section opens with a summary of the US-Iran tensions and the flare up in Idlib to put Turkey’s regional dilemmas in context. The ever-changing features of the Middle East kaleidoscope will likely force President Erdogan to change policy and make sacrifices eventually, but that discus...

Billionaire backer of Zelenskiy advocates Ukrainian debt default
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2019

Ihor Kolomoisky is the financial backer of the Ukrainian President. Kolomoisky gave an interview to the Financial Times. He advocated Ukraine defaulting on foreign debt - akin to Argentina.He also says he wants PrivatBank back - which he used to own. Kolomoisky divides his time between Israel and...

Russian independent oil refinery for sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2019

On May 21 Antipinsky oil refinery declared bankruptcy. This is one of the main refineries in the Tyumen Region. Sberbank owns 80% of the refinery since Antipinsky owes money to Sberbank. SOCAR (State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic) is considering buying the refinery. The remaining 20% is ...

Zelenskiy appoints a new presidential administration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2019

On May 20 Zelenskiy was inaugurated as president. There was much concern over who he would appoint to the cabinet since he is a political ingenue.Two people from Kvartal 95 (Zelenskiy's TV production company) have been appointed to the presidential administration. Andriy Bohdan was head of the pr...

A change in Chinese demand for American soy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 May 2019 · 1 response

As a follow up to my newsletter, it occurred to me that there may indeed be a change in Chinese demand for American soy over the next two years, but not because of trade sanctions. As everyone knows by now, China is suffering from a tremendous pork shortage thanks to the ravages of swine flu. A l...

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