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Following last week's hike, tightening path expected to be gradual
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Policy rates moved higher last week (as we had expected but against market consensus), pushing bond yields higher. We expect the tightening path in 2019 to be very gradual (we see rates at 0.5% by end-2019), and dependent on Fed tightening. Private consumption (non-durables especially) indicator...

November inflation drops sharply on lira, taxes, food
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November, coming in at negative 1.4%, m/m, dropping about twice faster than the consensus forecast (around 0.7% drop). Twelve-month CPI inflation fell sharply as a result, to 21.6%, from 25.2% in October. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was als...

Monetary arithmetic revisited
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Nov 2018

Local attention these days is naturally focused on the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, which, from a geopolitical perspective, represents a genuinely historical event for Argentina, and in particular for the Macri administration. Holding the G20 presidency and therefore hosting the annual summit is p...

Is the worst really over?
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2018

In this econ-only report, we share our latest thoughts on the recent macro developments in a Q&A format, as our politics author thought he would be much better positioned to update our esteemed readers soon after the G20 meetings are concluded. Markets are constructive on Turkey’s economic pro...

The Gruevski case: a further crack on EU relations right at the outset of budget talks
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2018

In recent days Hungary's government granted right of asylum to Nikola Gruevski, former prime minister of the FYR Macedonia, who was sentenced to a two-year prison term in his home country, for various wrongdoings involving corruption and abuse of power. This followed a somewhat unclear escape by ...

​First ever woman elected President of Georgia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Nov 2018

Salome Zurabishvili was elected President of Georgia. She will be inaugurated on December 16. She was born in France to Georgian emigres. She is a French citizen and served as the ambassador of France to Georgia. Some accused her of being more French than Georgian and trying to make her country a...

Has the rupiah started to rebound?
INDONESIA · Report · 29 Nov 2018

The Indonesian economy has recently enjoyed some small relief because of the “rebound” of the rupiah, after it depreciated continuously over the past several months. Having fallen to more than Rp.15,000 per greenback, the Indonesian currency gained a bit of strength in November. As of this writin...

Brazil Conference Call: Challenges facing the new government
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2018

​What are the most important economic challenges facing the Bolsonaro government? How will it move the economy from a sluggish recovery to accelerating growth? Can it achieve the fiscal consolidation necessary to alter the current debt/GDP trajectory?​

COSTA RICA: Constitutional Court approves fiscal reform package
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Nov 2018

Costa Rica’s Constitutional Court on November 23 unanimously green-lighted the fiscal reform package. The decision came after a public service workers' strike, and more than a year of discussions. The Supreme Court had indicated that the plan, approved by the Legislative Assembly 35-22 in its fi...

Russia plans to block international cryptocurrencies
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2018

A bill to ban access to international cyrptocurrencies has been introduced to the Duma. The legislation would also grant the central bank sweeping powers over Russian cryptocurrencies. This would shore up the status of the central bank. The default setting for the Russian Government is to control...

Azerbaijan assists Turkmenistan's TAPI pipeline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Nov 2018

Last week President Aliyev of Azerbaijan visited Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan share a maritime border in the Caspian Sea. This is the first state visit by the Azerbaijani president to Turkmenistan. The two countries did only USD 164 million of trade last year. The visa regime between...

Kerch Strait incident raises tensions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2018

On 25 November three Ukrainian warships tried to sail to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol. They were intercepted by the Russian Navy. The details are disputed. The three Ukrainian vessels were captured.Ukraine has reacted angrily. President Petro Poroshenko persuaded the Rada (parliament) to pass m...

Trade surplus with the U.S. grew
CHINA · Report · 27 Nov 2018

Growth in October was stable, but slower. Industrial output was up 5.9% y/y, up only 0.1 pps from September. Investment was up 8% y/y, having risen for three consecutive months, and up 5 pps from July. State investment has accelerated, to counteract other negative growth factors. Retail sales ...

Martial law enacted
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Nov 2018

Yesterday parliament enacted martial law for 10 regions for 30 days starting from November 28. MPs harshly reacted to the Presidents’ proposal to enact martial law for the whole territory and for 60 days, suspecting that Petro Poroshenko might use military regime for his political needs. Consensu...

Q3 fiscal results: a sign of things to come
PANAMA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

The Fiscal Responsibility Law was amended to allow the NFPS to raise the ceiling of the net deficit to 2% of GDP at the end of 2018, up from 1% set in the previous version. The results through September suggest that even the new ceiling will be difficult to attain. The fiscal balance of the NFPS ...

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