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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2018 · 2 responses

The change in the international scenario, with the appreciation of the dollar triggering a wave of revisions of the risk perceptions of emerging countries, ended a long period of leniency, during which investors did not react to the errors in conducting economic policies based on the consideratio...

Inflation surges, chastening forecasters
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2018

Consumer prices rose by a whopping 2.6% in June – at a rate about twice faster than the consensus -- which raised the 12-month rate to 15.4%, up from 12.1% in May. We are now looking to CPI inflation ending the year in the 14%-15% range, mechanically speaking, though we shall shortly revisit this...

First notes on the Mexican election
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018

The victory of Andrés Manuel López Obrador was bigger than anticipated: according to the quick count made by the National Electoral Institute (INE), he obtained 53% of the votes, 31 percentage points more than Ricardo Anaya, candidate of the coalition For Mexico to the Front and 38 points more th...

AMLO MAY START HIS PRESIDENCY WITH FAVORABLE ECONOMIC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENTS
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018

Finally AMLO won Mexico’s Presidency after three attempts. In previous presidential elections in 1988, 1994, 2000, 2006 and 2012, economic continuity was essentially granted by market friendly economic policies and strong committments to preserve economic stabilty.AMLO is not antimarket per se, a...

Credit, economic activity and monetary policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jul 2018

The economic recovery will be slower than foreseen before the truckers’ strike in May, both because of its direct effects (temporary paralysis of transport and part of manufacturing activity) and indirect ones (worsening of sentiment and financial conditions). This, along with anchored inflation ...

China’s “nervous economy”: The rate cut won’t solve the problem
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Jul 2018

Three events have occurred in the past several weeks that indicate China’s increasing nervousness about the state of its economy: 1) The PBOC engineered a targeted rate cut; 2) The domestic market fell more than 20 percent from its peak, and 3) An internal document warning of a “financ...

Annual exodus
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Jul 2018

The month of June was full of interesting economic activity. In the first half of the month, the majority of Indonesians were finishing their fasting month. The peak was the big holidays, similar to the Christmas holidays in western countries. This year, the holidays lasted for around 10 days, wh...

MNB vice governor Márton Nagy on television
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018

The forint slid a bit further today, to a new record of EURHUF 330.7, before returning to around the 330 level, which is 6% down in the year to date. The immediate reason is believed to be the most recent German government crisis, which is most likely to remain a negative factor for the forthcomi...

The Datena Factor and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jul 2018

The week begins with the Brazil vs Mexico World Cup game. If Brazil wins, the team plays again on Friday, July 6, against the winner of Belgium vs Japan. The World Cup schedule may have an impact on congressional work. Legislators, who go on recess on July 18, are trying to conclude votes on impo...

The shekel will react next week to the BoI macro forecast
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Jul 2018

Recent PC indicators points to some softening of PC demand, which supports weak inflationary pressure, although service prices and housing rentals are expect to contribute to inflation. The market has started to price in a rate hike later this year (we think Q119) but much will depend on the dire...

How long will the rebound last?
PERU · Forecast · 02 Jul 2018

We expect growth in Q2 to be very strong, at just below 5% y/y, rising from the low base left by the crippling effects of El Niño and by the corruption scandals surrounding Brazilian construction firms last year. Domestic demand is also recovering powerfully, driven particularly by a surge in min...

It's official. AMLO wins with wide margin
MEXICO · In Brief · 02 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Lorenzo Córdova, chair of the National Electoral institute announced in an official message tonight, at 11 pm, the results of the institute's quick count exercise. The results are: AMLO: 53%-53.8%Ricardo Anaya: 22.1-22.8%José Antonio Meade: 15.7%-16.3%Jaime Rodríguez: 5.3-5.5%There was a very pos...

Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Mexico's future president
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Jul 2018

According to GEA-ISA's exit poll, Andrés Manuel López Obrador will become Mexico's next president with a wide margin over its closest competitors. Our data, based on more than 3,500 interviews in over 100 voting booths show the following results: AMLO: 48.6% (min 46.9%-max 50.2%)Ricardo Anaya: 27...

First comments on the Mexican elections
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Jul 2018

July 1st was the biggest election in Mexico history. So far, electoral booths have closed in almost every state in the country. However, we will not be able to send any electoral data on the presidential race until 8pm tonight, bacanes booths will close by then in every state and the Mexican law ...

Post-election reflections
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jul 2018

Contrary to the gloom and doom permeating the international press, our politics author greets last Sunday’s elections as a significant victory for the Turkish democracy, with his long-term optimism significantly elevated by the vibrancy of the campaign and the intangible victories scored by the o...

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