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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Paula and the cowboys
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Duque won Colombia’s presidency with 10.4 million votes (54% of total valid votes), while Petro obtained 8 million votes, equivalent to 41.8% (See Table 1). Figures 1 and 2 show the regional distribution indicating that some key provinces of central Colombia were responsible for these results. Du...

A bit of a problem with inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Those analysts who believed a few weeks ago that Fidesz was unlikely to use its two-thirds parliamentary majority to carry out further constitutional reforms appear to have been clearly wrong. In fact, a draft act to further restrict the operation of non-government organizations, and a constituti...

Change in the international scenario and increased risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The international scenario has changed. The current cycle is marked by appreciation of the dollar and reduced flow of capital to emerging countries, which to a greater or lesser degree has weakened their currencies and raised the quotations of their CDS. The countries with balance of payments iss...

IMF view of new high court anti-corruption law still a mystery
UKRAINE · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The bill on the high anti-corruption court (HACC) has finally passed in the Verkhovna Rada. President Petro Poroshenko promptly signed it into law, and it took effect on June 14th. Nominally, Ukraine’s government has fulfilled the IMF requirement, but, predictably, the law was not quite the one t...

Last month of legislative activity before the mid-year recess and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018 · 1 response

The Central Bank, pressured by the external scenario, will offer approximately US$10 billion in swap contracts to increase liquidity in the foreign exchange market. On Wednesday, the central bank will announce the benchmark interest rate. Finance Minister Eduardo Guardia meets with investors in N...

Carrasquilla to lead Duque’s transition team
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Alberto Carrasquilla, former Minister of Finance under president Uribe and the most mentioned name for taking that same post again during the next administration, has been designated general leader of the two-month transition, until August 7th, by president-elect Iván Duque.On the government’s si...

Economics: Fuzzy economics of the final debate
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The third and final presidential candidates’ debate was planned around three broad policy areas, the first being economic growth, poverty and inequality. But, unfortunately, the contenders preferred to spend most of their time attacking one another, and when they did get around to economic policy...

Politics: AMLO and the businessmen: hesitant pragmatism
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Relations between Andrés Manuel López Obrador and most of the country’s business class have long been fraught. The man who increasingly seems will be the country’s next president has often had choice words for some of the country’s most powerful business leaders and has troubled them with his app...

How long will China’s slowdown last?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • A sharp slowdown in economic growth in May was preceded by a sharp slowdown in credit growth. Analysts are confusing the slowdown in credit growth with the deleveraging process, and will undoubtedly point out that Chinese deleveraging is causing gro...

Weekly Macro-Economic review
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Inflation in May was in line with consensus, but the acceleration of housing rental prices poses a risk for higher inflation. External fundamentals are less shekel positive than in the past, with the CA surplus reaching 2.2% GDP in Q118, down from 3% in 2017. We expect inflation to reach 1% NTM, ...

Economic activity: A new frustration of expectations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018

After the weak GDP result for the first quarter, some signs of better performance emerged in April. Unfortunately, however, even before the truckers’ strike (which put paid to any expectations of faster recovery), those signs were already changing for the worse, making the diagnosis even clearer ...

Cohabitation, contagion, contraction
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jun 2018 · 2 responses

In the final week before elections, Erdogan’s lead in the presidential race looks insurmountable, but not large enough to seal the deal in the first round. While we discus some downside scenarios for Erdogan, we are confident in our forecast of a second-round victory over the CHP candidate Muharr...

​Maduro seeks more control
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Maduro freshens up his cabinet by bringing in "more women and youngsters". Yet he is simply reshuffling people already holding top positions in government or chavista organizations. One of the cabinet changes stands out, though, as it hints at what Maduro is looking for early on in his second ...

Power was absolute, but not everlasting
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Political events have evolved with amazing speed in Ecuador since May 2017, when President Moreno took office. The new president has managed to dismantle the almighty power structure of former President Correa, who finished as the “head of all powers” (as he referred to himself), dominating execu...

Tightening interbank liquidity
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Chinese banks have been caught in the middle of stronger regulations and rising pressure from new competitors, particulary the internet finance companies. Under new rules discussed late last year that banks are starting to put in place, guaranteed wealth management products have been forbidden, r...

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