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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Nov 27
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Nov 26
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Odebrecht case update: a bigger than expected deceive
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Jun 2018
A year and a half after investigations into the million-dollar bribes of Odebrecht in the Dominican Republic was launched, the Attorney General's Office filed formal accusations. Few expected an impartial and fair investigation because the Attorney General is a political subordinate of President ...
The new old
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2018
Immediately after the inauguration, President Putin signed a decree establishing national development goals for his six-year Presidential term. Although the previous decree signed in 2012 was not fully fulfilled, it became an important performance management instrument for the government. With am...
Running scared, recession underway
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2018
A number of recent polls add weight to our call of President Erdogan winning the race in the second round, as we declare CHP candidate Mr. Ince his potential rival. Assuming pro-Kurdish HDP passes the qualifying hurdle, opposition parties should gain control of the Grand Assembly. A spate of rash...
XP/IPESPE Poll: Bolsonaro leads, Ciro gains, and Lula lifts Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jun 2018
The new telephone poll conducted by XP/IPESPE (June 4-6) shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), despite having lost some ground compared to the May poll, is still in the lead in the presidential race in scenarios in which former President Lula (PT) is not a candidate. Bolsonaro’s performance (from 21%...
Finance minister Varga appeared quite relaxed about the weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2018
Mr. Mihály Varga, who once again bears the title of finance minister (pretty much a different name for the economy minister only) spoke in a rather relaxed mood about the weak forint today, despite the May jump in CPI-inflation (to 2.8% yoy from 2.3% in April), which obviously had a lot to do wit...
Does Xi Jinping control China’s economy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Jun 2018
Xi Jinping is widely viewed as China’s strongest leader since Deng Xiao Ping thirty years ago. He has consolidated control over the Party, rammed home an anti-corruption campaign, and pledged backing for the expansion of the state sector through programs such as “One Belt One Road” and “Made in C...
Until March 2019: From here to eternity
TURKEY · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
The CBRT’s latest move avoided the worst but more needs to be done as the global backdrop deteriorates for high-CAD, high F/X debt countries such as Turkey. But until Turkey’s election cycle ends, with the March 2019 local elections, substantial corrective policy action is difficult to imagine.
Not until after the 2019 elections?
UKRAINE · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
The economy is recovering after crisis and war. As external payments continue to rise, there are stumbling blocks to an IMF agreement.
Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
Holding fair elections by year-end is on the public agenda again, and civil society is beginning to organize. Current bad policy and bad outcomes point to a full scale debt restructuring on the horizon.
Reviving the economy alongside institutional reform
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
South Africa’s economic growth surprised on the upside during in 4Q 2017, with rising confidence expected to boost investment. But the country faces some chronic and difficult political economy challenges at present.
2018 post-electoral AMLO economic scenario
MEXICO · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
We see a positive 2018-2019 economic outlook, but it’s unstable afterwards if AMLO wins.
The Indian economy
INDIA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
While conventional GDP data shows a certain story, net sales at current prices may tell a different story.
China may impose property taxes soon
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
The implementation of property taxes could help resolve significant distortions caused by the real estate market in China. But property taxes may not be all that is needed to stabilize the real estate market.
Economics & Political Outlook
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
A new fiscal balance path and questions of growth dominate as the country faces a run-off in the presidential election.
Snapshot of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018
Brazil faces no problems of financing the balance of payments, nor is it involved in any geopolitical conflicts or trade embargos. What puts it in the group of nations experiencing the greatest depreciations is its fiscal/political risk.