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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation rises further, eyes on MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jun 2018

May CPI inflation came in at 1.6%, m/m, somewhat higher than the consensus expectation of 1.4%-1.5%, reflecting a myriad of mainly cost-push factors, such as lira depreciation, higher oil prices and the Ramadan effect on food prices. The 12-month CPI rate rose sharply higher to 12.1%, y/y, from 1...

Finance Minister Dismissal on Agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jun 2018

Last week media reported about open conflict between Prime-Minister Volodymyr Groysman and Finance Minister Oleksander Danylyuk. On May 23, at the Cabinet meeting Finance Minister strongly insisted on approval of his candidate for the position of his deputy. Instead Groysman removed State Fiscal ...

​Wait and see on the IMF negotiations
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Jun 2018

Two years after the new administration took power, the fiscal deficit continues to be large, and the current account deficit has been increasing. In implementing its fight against inflation the Central Bank expanded the stock of LEBACs to a level higher than that of the monetary base. In May, the...

Is regime change possible?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Turkey’s ordeal with political risks is not over. At the very tail-end, postponement of elections still lurks behind. ‘Cohabitation’ is the most likely outcome on June 24th, after which time Erdogan and the opposition controlled Grand Assembly are likely to bicker on many topics, but agree on eve...

EU transfer allocations for 2021-2027 may be even less than thought initially
HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 May 2018

In our May report, we said that between 2021-2027, Hungary's allocation of EU development transfers may fall to 2.2% of GDP from 2.9% in 2014-2020 and 4.1% in 2007-2013, assuming it will change the same way as the EU's total allocation on its various transfer programs will, according to the EU Co...

A worse than expected year with elections looming
PANAMA · Report · 31 May 2018

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMAE) expanded at a rate of 2.9% y/y in March and 3.5% YTD confirming our predictions of a slower 2018 compared to 2017, when the economy grew at 5.4%. The main drivers during the first quarter of the year were commerce, transportation and communications (C...

Bank Indonesia raises the benchmark rate
INDONESIA · In Brief · 31 May 2018

At a special policy meeting on May 30, Bank Indonesia announced another increase in the benchmark rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75 percent. The rate increase, as we suggested in our most recent report, was able to reverse expectations, so that the exchange rate of the rupiah turned to Rp. 13 thou...

The Central Bank acts to stabilize the rupiah
INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2018

Like many other emerging economies, the Indonesian economy has been challenged by the policy undertaken by the US Fed, which has raised its interest rates for the last few quarters and has strongly indicated it will raise the Fed Funds rate further. Being a small open economy, Indonesia is not im...

Economics: 1Q public finance tops official forecast
MEXICO · Report · 29 May 2018

Public finance results for the first quarter were in keeping with budget and finance ministry targets, but also provide evidence of an extension toward the troubling trend of rising spending, mounting public deficits and a multi-year trend toward sacrificing physical public investment. While it ...

A strike of mistakes, multiple losers and a single winner, and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 May 2018

The truckers’ strike continues to have repercussions. New rounds of negotiations are expected. This will be the main item on the agenda in the Lower House and Senate. The government drafted a provisional measure that regulates minimum pricing for roadway cargo transport. The Planalto is negotiat...

COSTA RICA: Inauguration dreams versus fiscal realities
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 May 2018

Carlos Alvarado of the Citizens Action Party was sworn in as president of Costa Rica on May 8th, and immediately sent a clear message about the need to solve the government’s fiscal problem. The challenge is complicated, though, not only by the size of the central government’s deficit, estimated ...

Politics: Little change after the second debate
MEXICO · Report · 29 May 2018

The second presidential candidates’ debate also drew a record audience and produced much better performances by all three major candidates but no clear winner. Jóse Antonio Meade of the PRI-led coalition offered by far his best showing of the campaign, Ricardo Anaya once again was the best prepar...

Truckers’ strike continues amid rising suspicions of political involvement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 May 2018

Despite the new concessions announced by President Michel Temer this Sunday (27), the truckers’ strike continues in many cities throughout the country. The situation is very delicate, despite the fact that some roadways have been cleared. The National Association of Fuel Distributors, Lubrican...

Of deficits and rising risks
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 28 May 2018

Amidst buoyant global growth, the domestic economy expanded strongly at the start of 2018 boosted by particularly vigorous public spending. Despite this, the local mood especially in financial markets is less than jubilant. While we think the economy’s fundamentals quite solid as affirmed by S&P...

A stronger shekel supports lower inflation and will postpone tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 28 May 2018

The shekel has appreciated by 2.7% so far this month, which is supportive of lower inflation and rate hike postponement. The labor market remains tight with job vacancies up and job seekers down. Consumption of services remains robust while consumption of goods (domestically) has softened. Pol...

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