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Q4 GDP growth, the new growth target and monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

1. GDP growth was reported at 4.8% yoy on sda basis for Q4 2018, down from a revised 5.1% yoy in Q3. The full-year growth rate was recorded at a preliminary 4.9% in sda terms (4.8% according to unadjusted data). In fact, GDP grew by close to 5% yoy throughout the whole of 2018.2. On February 10, ...

Bank of Russia remains 7.75%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

As expected the Bank of Russia retained the benchmark rate at 7.75%. Inflation was the stated reason for this. In January inflation was at 5.5% YoY. This is at the lower end of what CBR forecast. Inflation in 2019 is predicted to be from 5.5% to 6%. Likely it will be highest in the middle of the ...

US Senate to discuss more anti-Russian sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

On Wednesday the US Senate met to discuss a new round of sanctions under DASKAA (Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act). DASKAA was passed least year but a new enhanced version might be introduced. The sovereign debt aspect of it is probably going to be the most impactful part o...

The days of swine and roses
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Feb 2019

Things are far from coming up roses for the Philippines in 2019, the Year of the Pig.A more somber mood greeted the start of the year as talks of slower global growth, persistence of trade war, no-deal Brexit, and US government shutdown made headlines.Locally, notwithstanding tamer inflation and ...

Stolen Moldovan assets seized
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Feb 2019

UK authorities have seized assets belonging to Luca Filat. The 22 year old is the son of Vladimir Filat the former Prime Minister of Moldova. Vladimir Filat is serving 9 years in prison in Moldova for his role in 'disappearing' over USD 1 billion from three Moldovan banks in June 2016. This was w...

South Africa in darkness as Eskom’s troubles intensify
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Feb 2019 · 1 response

Load shedding is back once again, and this time, the electricity cuts by Eskom that have long plagued South Africa have intensified. Load shedding is implemented by Eskom as a last resort measure when demand for electricity outstrips power generation by the entity. This is done in order to avert ...

Severe damage
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2019 · 2 responses

The 28 January 2019 sanctions put the Maduro government in dire straits. According to our calculations, forex earnings will fall by at least $700 million this month and are unlikely to recover. Pdvsa proved being unable to avoid the resounding fall in oil output so far. It was taken by surpri...

Polls bring wake-up call, but constitution includes NATO/EU aspirations
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Feb 2019

Recent polls that showed comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy leading in the presidential race shocked everyone. Ukrainian voters seem to be sending a message to the powers that be: maybe we’d be better off with a comic than with “business as usual.” How serious respondents are in plumping for a man who ...

We were wrong on January inflation, a problem for the economy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2019

Well, the problem is certainly not so much that we undershot the January inflation actual (though the analyst consensus got it right). They will most likely survive it somehow. The real problem is that the current growth rate of GDP, around 4% annually, less and less appears to be compatible with...

The new law on elections is disappointing
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Feb 2019

Last night, the Chamber of Representatives approved the bill on the electoral regime. The bill was passed by the Senate last week. The aim of the law is to create a new and modern electoral regime to complement the party law passed last year, which with shortcomings, was a step forward because it...

February flash: MEF complies with deficit ceiling and important Panama Canal Authority news
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

Fiscal PerformanceAccording to the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s (MEF) latest publication, the deficit of the non-financial public sector (NFPS) represented 2% of GDP for fiscal year 2018, thus barely hitting the ceiling of the Fiscal Social Responsibility law (FSRL). In November, we estimate...

Economics: New data could weigh on investment
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2019

The main source of concern weighing on economic agents in Mexico, whether domestic or international, is the heightened sense of uncertainty regarding Mexico’s economic evolution during 2019 and in the years to come, and how much risk it might pose to their investment, sales and earnings expectati...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Feb 2019

The prolonged hospitalization of President Bolsonaro, without taking a formal leave of office, has paralyzed part of the government, accentuating internal conflicts. The latest information indicates he will be released in the next few days, after which his actions and governing style will tend to...

Politics: The first election test for the incumbent Morena
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2019

Voters will go to the polls in only six of 32 states this June 2, but those state and municipal contests will offer the first test of a nationally incumbent Morena’s ability to extend its hold on elected office and build a much broader voter base with which to expand the political power needed to...

The House may conclude Pension Reform in June
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro may be discharged from the hospital on Thursday. Lower House President Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) will meet with governors to discuss Pension Reform. In the Senate, party leaders meet on Tuesday to decide on the presidencies of the permanent committees. On Friday, the Central ...

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