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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New hits
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2018

Russian authorities started blocking Telegram – a popular online messenger whose founder refused to share encryption keys with the law enforcement. Weeks of blocking attempts resulted in thousands participating in street protests and multiple unrelated online services having connection issues but...

Maduro will declare victory. Then what?
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2018

Venezuela’s presidential election is just over a week away, but few citizens are passionate about the campaign. Folks are more concerned with day-to-day life under hyperinflation and collapsing public services. Surveys suggest that, nonetheless, more people intend to vote than they did a few mont...

Off to a good start
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 May 2018

GDP grew 6.8% in 1Q18, among the best in the region and in line with analysts’ estimates. Driving growth were domestic demand components, particularly:(a) household consumption, which grew 5.6% on the back of a 10% growth in peso remittances, despite rising inflation and crude oil prices;(b) publ...

Suspense Continues
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 May 2018

After a high level meeting of economy ministers and bureaucrats held at the Presidential palace this afternoon, the President's office issued a statement, which we offer a quick and dirty translation below to help you to draw your own conclusions. (The original statement in TR can be accessed her...

Squeaking by, without IMF money
UKRAINE · Report · 09 May 2018

With few notable events in April, we decided to take a closer look at what might happen if the IMF deal were delayed until after the 2019 elections—although we remain hopeful that cooperation will resume in 2018. Two important dates are coming up in the next two years: a presidential election ...

President Ramaphosa's first100 Days in office: South Africa's new dawn, Zuma legacy and the forceful gravity of historic challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 May 2018

President Ramaphosa's first 100 days in office are drawing to an end. He has promised a new dawn for the country's democracy, an ethical revival for the ANC, and a restart for the sluggish economy. On all these fronts, he is bogged down by some or other legacy challenges. The country's democratic...

​Back to the IMF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 08 May 2018 · 1 response

After last week’s measures to control devaluation expectations[1] president Macri announced today that the government has agreed with the IMF to retake conversation with the aim to negotiate a new Flexible Credit Line (current market talks go as high as USD 30bn).Treasury Minister Dujovne, who is...

Consequences of Joaquim Barbosa’s withdrawal from the presidential race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2018

​The withdrawal of former Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) Joaquim Barbosa (PSB) from the presidential race in October has prompted some important developments. The first of these is that, without Barbosa in the game, "anti-politics" or "outsider" candidacies are now restricted to two ...

Industry has passed its cyclical peak, following the Euro Area
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2018

New industrial data shows that output growth in the sector, one of the key factors behind last year's 4.2% real GDP growth has passed its cyclical peak already. This morning, KSH reported -0.7% mom, 2% yoy for output growth in March, down from 4.1% yoy in February and 6.6% yoy in January (all on ...

U.S.-China trade war likely to be short-lived
CHINA · Forecast · 08 May 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1, with GDP up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, a 0.6 pps rise from Q4. Investment was up 7.5% y/y, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017. But price-adjusted investment growth was up only 1.2% y/y, though private investment r...

Adding fuel to the crisis
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 May 2018

The Banesco takeover hurts financial sector stability, feeds distrust, and fuels hyperinflation, recession, and loss of value of the bolivar. The largest bank in the country, accounting for 25 percent of total deposits and 26 percent of total loans, 8 million depositors (in a country with only 31...

Presidential race - Volatility until the reformist center can show signs of life and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 May 2018

In a week without a holiday, legislators try to advance votes on matters of interest to the government. President Michel Temer may announce the regulation of Route 2030, a new program to stimulate the automotive industry. The Supreme Court examines the appeal against the arrest of former Presiden...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2018 · 1 response

The probability of a presidential candidate from the center, with a reform agenda, being elected in October is unknown, aggravating the uncertainty resulting from the perception of a change in the external scenario. Nothing indicates this situation will change until mid-year. Recent economic indi...

Weaker shekel and wage pressure support higher inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 07 May 2018

Shekel weakness is expected to push inflation higher this year, to the low end of target. Wage growth is also accelerating, because of a tight labor market and minimum wage hike. The fiscal deficit is likely to reach the target this year (despite positive numbers through April), and a tax cut app...

Economics: Election year forex volatility redux
MEXICO · Report · 07 May 2018

Mexican presidential election campaigns have long been preceded by months of foreign exchange and stock market volatility. The source of such turbulence generally involves uncertainty as to what sort of program each competitive candidate might implement and which candidate is likely to emerge vic...

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