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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A change in leadership brings calm
PERU · Report · 19 Apr 2018

Amid an untenable political situation, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski resigned on March 21st, thereby avoiding certain ouster via a painful and politically damaging impeachment process. It would have been impossible for him to stay on another 3 ½ years, given soured relations between the Executi...

​Snap elections: Good for Turkey, good for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Erdogan-Bahceli meeting yielded snap elections, and I really mean “snap” elections, because the proposed date was brought forward from 26 August to 24 June. Early elections are good for Erdogan and Turkey, because both could have suffered a road accident, had they been delayed to 2019. My poll-of...

Fidesz restored two-thirds majority
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Apr 2018

The parliamentary election held on April 8 brought about almost exactly the same result as the previous one did in 2014. Fidesz once again won with a big lead, narrowly restoring its two-thirds constitutional majority, which it lost in an interim election held in early 2015. Participation in the ...

​Crucial summit between Erdogan and Bahceli scheduled for Wednesday
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

I promised to write a market brief about early elections, but instead of responding to Bahceli’s call, Erdogan invited him for a summit at 13:30 on Wednesday. I still believe the leaders will agree on early elections, but want to keep my powder dry until then. I also insist that a decision for sn...

​HEADS UP: Bahceli calls for early elections
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2018

MHP leader and AKP’s election ally Mr. Bahceli just called for early elections on 26th of August. First reaction from experts:Probably he had consulted AKP before talking to his parliamentary caucus about this. The announcement is market negative but I believe barring major TL-related accidents, ...

Datafolha’s messages and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2018

Three important issues are on the STF’s agenda: The 1st Group decides whether to accept complaint against Aécio Neves, the court decides on the habeas corpus petition by Paulo Maluf, and Minister Marco Aurélio may bring to the floor the PEN’s request on conviction in the second instance. On Tuesd...

Economics: A competitiveness plan for the campaign
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2018

The country’s anti-monopoly regulatory agency, Cofece, issued a document titled "Economic competition, platform for 2018-2024 growth," which offers an analysis of the current situation in relation to economic competition and an agenda of measures to spur competition as a necessary and indispensab...

Politics: TEPJF-INE dispute rocks contest
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2018

The country’s highest electoral court has overruled the electoral authority in a highly controversial decision with broad implications for the July 1 elections and the eventual presidential transition. In a four-to-three decision the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) granted Jaime "El Bronco" Ro...

Core inflation reaches 0.8% y/y in March
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Apr 2018

Inflation in March surprises slightly on the upside, core inflation reaches 0.8% y/y. Inflation is likely to reach the lower end of target in 2018, but the BoI is expected to be patient and wait until the inflationary environment reaches 1.5%-2% (mid-2019). Fiscal numbers in Q118 suggest that th...

The deceleration of GDP: Growth of only 2.2% in 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Apr 2018

At the start of the year (see the Weekly Bulletin “Economic Activity Recovering More Strongly”, of February 5th), a large number of indicators portended faster growth of investments. Among these were the decline in the stock of new residential units and the improved credit conditions for business...

Quo Vadis, Turkey?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Apr 2018

The Turkish economy closed 2017 with turbo-charged growth -- of 7.4%, and heightened vulnerabilities as a result, with inflation running at double digits and the current account deficit at a disconcerting 5.6% of GDP. Going forward, the government has one priority in mind, which is to sustain thi...

The Central bank leaves prime rate unchanged at 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Today the Board of the Central bank decided to leave prime rate unchanged at 17.0%. The decision was approved despite March inflation sped up to +1.1% m/m (+0.9% m/m in February) and despite no progress with the IMF. This decision might look a bit counter logical amid inflation speed up but in es...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2018

Lula has started serving his jail term for the crimes of corruption and money laundering, and the country was not set inflame, as had been promised by his party’s propaganda and had been the claim on countless earlier occasions. On the contrary, his imprisonment strengthened, in Brazil and the wo...

Continuing growth despite IMF issues
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Ukraine’s economy is clearly enroute to recovery. GDP grew 2.5% y/y in 2017, on the back of private consumption, which rose +7.6% y/y, and local investment, which jumped +18.1% y/y. GDP would have grown even more if not for a -6.3% y/y drop in the grain harvest, and a -16.3% y/y decline in coal e...

The banking crisis got worse
INDIA · Report · 10 Apr 2018

Three remarkable events took place in the last two weeks. A corruption investigation began concerning the CEO of the largest private bank, ICICI Bank. RBI forced the exit of the CEO of Axis Bank, a large private bank. And central investigation agencies have begun asking RBI employees (including a...

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