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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Global trade and its discontents
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Trump administration seems serious about implementing trade intervention policies aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, and especially the deficit with China. While part of the bluster may be for negotiation purposes, whatever happens in the nex...

The monetary easing cycle has not yet ended
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

The Central Bank decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the last COPOM meeting, to 6.5%, and made it clear that if the conjuncture continues to evolve as it has recently – low inflation and weak economic recovery – another reduction can be expected at the next meeting. Although th...

Pandora's box opens for markets
TURKEY · Report · 25 Mar 2018 · 1 response

The victory in Afrin has granted Turkey a permanent say in the future of Syria, but it has also confirmed our view of a long-term military and economic investment in the war. Furthermore, additional military campaigns heralded by President Erdogan are likely to raise the wrath of the US and/or As...

Moody's priceless gift to President Ramaphosa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2018

As I speculated in my last Note a week ago, yesterday Moody's kept South Africa's global credit rating at investment grade, and importantly changed its outlook from "negative" to "stable". I beleive , all considered, this is a jusified assessment. More imprtantly, however, this is a priceless gif...

China’s tariff plan: Xi Jinping plays smart domestic politics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Mar 2018

Beijing’s response to Trump’s tariffs was an astute brand of politics. Both sides are playing as much to internal politics as to their opposing countries. Trump is shoring up his political base by supporting the steel industry. Xi Jinping is wisely attacking states harboring Trump’s supporters, b...

After sticks, stones
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Mar 2018

Ecuadorians have been shocked by shameful political scandals around abuses of political power and corruption that have so far put a Vice President in jail, have demoted the president of the National Assembly and have the Attorney General waiting for an impeachment. In addition, for the first...

​President Kukzynski has resigned
PERU · In Brief · 21 Mar 2018

A few minutes ago, through a television address, the president announced his resignation thus avoiding the impeachment procedure that was scheduled for tomorrow.During a seven-minute speech, Kuczynski blamed the opposition majority in Congress pointing to their frivolous and arbitrary behavior, w...

Kuczynski likely to be ousted
PERU · In Brief · 21 Mar 2018

Yesterday's revelations of attempts to change votes to avoid the president's impeachment on the part of dissident members of the Fuerza Popular party has all but decided that he will be ousted tomorrow. During a press conference, the spokesman for Fuerza Popular Daniel Salaverry accompanied by ot...

Presidential succession: Context and perspectives
MEXICO · Presentation · 21 Mar 2018

The presidential election will take place in the context of a political crisis, with government approval at historic lows. The results of the election remain uncertain, and risks remain high.

More positive economic metrics out of South Africa as the deficit on the current account narrows to 2.5% of GDP in 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Following the notable widening in the seasonally adjusted and annualized trade surplus to R92 billion during the third quarter of 2017, the trade balance narrowed to (a still substantial) R74 billion in the last quarter of 2017 as reported by the SA Reserve Bank. This was a result of a more prono...

Economics: No clear consensus on inflation
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Inflation in Mexico has proven to be more stubborn this year than monetary authorities had earlier projected, and additional pressures are looming. Higher prices for LP gas, some produce, and certain goods have been especially apparent in recent inflation reports and prompted both Banco de México...

Politics: Security system struggles
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The decision by Jalisco state and federal authorities to sequester all members of the Tlaquepaque police force and directly assume control over public security in the municipality was immediately viewed through a partisan lens in a state where the PRI governor has long been warring with the oppos...

The gubernatorial races and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

On the economic agenda, we highlight the release of the GDP preview for January and the Central Bank’s decision on the benchmark interest rate. Former President Lula begins another caravan throughout the South region on March 19, closing in Curitiba (PR) on March 28. A new Ipsos poll on the presi...

Can the expansion of consumption guarantee 3% GDP growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The growth of household consumption, spurred by monetary policy, has been the driving force behind the recovery. However, the previous quarter witnessed a substantial deceleration, and if one takes real retail sales as a bellwether of consumption (which, as reiterated in recent reports, is an exc...

Rapid growth and moderate inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The odds for the April parliamentary election have become slightly more even since a candidate supported by all opposition parties won against Fidesz in an interim local election held in late February. This event has increased the willingness of opposition parties to cooperate in the national vot...

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