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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia opposes oil production cut
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2018

On 12 November President Putin announced that he does not want Russian consumers to be hurt by an oil price rise.On 11 November OPEC met in Abu Dhabi. There was a spirited debate about an oil production cut. The aim would be to raise prices. Iran and Saudi Arabia are both members of OPEC despite ...

Cash, just in time for elections
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Nov 2018

The situation in Ukraine has been intense in recent weeks. Residential gas prices have finally been raised by 23.5%, and the IMF immediately announced a staff-level agreement on a new 14-month Standby arrangement—a credit line worth up to $3.9 billion. This positive signal gave the green light fo...

Q3 GDP data tomorrow: moderate slowdown is expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2018

Portfolio.hu's analyst poll expects a moderate slowdown for Q3 GDP, to an unadjusted 4.3% yoy growth rate in real terms, after 4.9% yoy in Q2. We agree with that consensus: preliminary and partial data are indeed hinting at some moderate deceleration for the third quarter. Importantly, the same a...

Strong growth prospects, but politics could hamper business confidence
PERU · Forecast · 12 Nov 2018

Strong recovery in H1 was mainly due to a favorable base effect, after the H1 2017 slowdown caused by the El Niño disasters. Though we expect growth of just 2.5% in Q3, growth should speed up in Q4, taking into account the start of the fishing season, and strong public investment. Under these con...

Positive effects of the lower risk
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018

Might the Brazilian economy’s cyclical recovery accelerate at the start of the next administration? The current government has left a positive legacy of a low basic interest rate with inflation fluctuating around the target. With a still-wide negative GDP gap (unemployment rate of 12% and low uti...

Bolsonaro in Brasília again and to present elected governors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2018 · 1 response

This will be an intense week in the Lower House and Senate, despite the Thursday (November 15) holiday. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) will travel to Brasília again, where he will meet with Minister Rosa Weber (TSE). Bolsonaro and Paulo Guedes present elected governors with the new governme...

The bond market is starting to price in a possible dent in fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2018

Highlights: Wage growth is running at an annual pace of about 3.5% y/y. * Wage growth is impacted by a tight labor market and minimum wage hikes. Trend data point to recent moderation in wages. * This is fairly rapid and will have some impact on inflation. Business sector expectations f...

Taking off again
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2018

Hyperinflation took a break in October, in line with what we anticipated would happen after the September shock. We revised down our October estimate to 208%, from 224% in our previous report. The monthly inflation rate slowed significantly in October from 232 percent in September but, neverthele...

Local election dilemmas
TURKEY · Report · 11 Nov 2018

With less than five months left to critical municipal elections, AKP is rapidly losing support from voters. This means that it shall henceforth focus on the economy and elections, trying to preserve the status quo in foreign policy. The need to balance Kurdish and nationalist votes require tou...

China’s infrastructure model is broken
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Nov 2018

China’s economic growth in the near term will depend on further investment in infrastructure, which has been the main driver in the past. The switch to consumption will take time. Our analysis suggests there are inadequate fiscal resources to continue to generate significant growth through invest...

South African state-owned enterprises: A drag on fiscal position and a threat to financial stability
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Nov 2018

For sustainable economic growth, development and employment creation, nations need a financial system that is “resilient to systemic shocks, facilitates efficient financial intermediation, and mitigates the macroeconomic costs of disruptions in such a way that confidence in the system is maintain...

At a turning point?
ECUADOR · Presentation · 08 Nov 2018 · 4 responses

Ecuador is at a turning point – opportunities include a willingness to change from Correa’s economic model, optimistic perspectives on the oil industry and better relationships with trade partners. Risks include lack of political coherence and a weakening of Moreno’s popularity, as well as the po...

Surprise, surprise: bad news on CPI-inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

CPI-inflation for October came out at 0.5% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, up from 3.6% yoy in the previous month, beating Portfolio.hu's 3.7% yoy analyst consensus (and even more our 3.6% yoy forecast, to tell the truth). KSH's core inflation rose to 2.6% yoy, from September's 2.4% yoy, and non-fuel...

GDP growth slides anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Nov 2018

After the disappointment in the previous quarter, today’s news that 3Q18 GDP slowed to 6.1%, a shade below the median analysts’ forecast, was less of a surprise. The pattern of growth was similar to the earlier quarters, i.e., robust domestic demand that was offset by higher net imports. However,...

Why isn’t the US a trade-surplus economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • In a well-functioning world of global trade, the US should either run a more-or-less balanced trade account or it should run persistent trade surpluses. In standard trade theory, it is the norm for rich, mature economies with high income levels and ef...

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