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Russian region will not have to pay debt to Gazprom
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2019

A court in the Russian region of Chechnya ruled that Chechnya does not have to pay a debt of USD 135 million to Gazprom. Gazprom has protested. The company is worried that other regions will also seek to have their debts written off too. The General-Prosecutor has taken Gazprom's side in this dis...

Russian population declining
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2019

The Russian population has started to fall. There are more deaths than births. Despite immigration the population went down by 87 000 last year. Immigration is also falling. The government is keen to make the population grow. A maternity capital program started last year which pays a monthly allo...

The South African economy poised for revival
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 25 Jan 2019

Summary and assumptions • South Africa’s growth: South Africa started 2018 on a high note and full of renewed optimism but ended the year with a more muted tone following another year of insipid economic metrics. GDP growth disappointed in H1 2018 but recovered in Q3 with 2.2% GDP growth. We ex...

Pressure on Maduro mounts
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Escalating pressures on Maduro, Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, was symbolically sworn in to "assume the powers of the Executive" as "interim president” before huge crowds in Caracas and other cities on January 23. The demonstration convened that same day by the government was a ...

How to think about China’s Year of the Pig
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jan 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • On February 5, the Year of the Pig begins. This is supposed to be a good year for making money, especially in the stock markets, and it may well turn out to be true, but only because the past year has been so miserable and Beijing may be thinking of ...

January 2019 China Bank Survey
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2019

China’s banking system is under pressure to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and reducing credit risks. On one hand, Beijing is calling for lenders to step up funding for small businesses and infrastructure projects to revive the ailing economy. On the other hand, worsening cor...

GDP growth sustained above 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Jan 2019

Government announced today that 4Q18 GDP grew 6.1%, a little below the median 6.3% analysts’ forecast. The headline rate reflects slower domestic demand growth alongside a smaller drag from net exports. The two are related: the former was pulled down by lower investments in durable equipment, mai...

Duma seeks more power
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2019

The Russian Parliament (Duma) is seeking to gain greater powers. Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin is asking for a constitutional change to enhance checks and balances. Volodin has several other disputes to handle. He wants to offer a solution to ''Problem 2024'' what to do when Putin's current an...

World Youth Day 2019 and the new government's to-do list
PANAMA · Report · 23 Jan 2019

This is Francisco’s week. The Argentinian Pope will arrive at Tocumen Airport on January 23 for a three-day visit to preside over the World Youth Day ("JMJ" in Spanish), an event that occurs every three years in a different city of the world; it was last held in Krakow, Poland in 2016 and drew th...

Three major Russian food and drink retailers merge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2019

Krasnoye i Beloye, Dixy and Bristol are merging. Dixy is a food retailer owned by Igor Kesaev. Krasnoye i Beloye is a chain of liquor stores. Bristol is also a chain of liquor stores and is owned by Sergey Katsiyev. Dixy and Bristol will own 51% of the new company. Krasnoye i Beloye will own 49%....

Good growth momentum despite political chaos
PERU · Report · 22 Jan 2019

Since winning ample public support in a fall showdown over judicial and political reform, President Martín Vizcarra has successfully positioned himself as Peru’s anti-corruption leader. The leaders of both major opposition parties, Fuerza Popular (FP) and APRA, are now under high-profile investig...

Investment in Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2019

Uzbekistan's economy is attracting funds and one based in Asia, Asia Frontier Capital, will launch in Uzbekistan in March. The economy is diverse and sectors such as oil, gas, coal mining and cement offer handsome returns. Listed stocks are cheap and trade around 3 to 5 times price-to-earnings. B...

Possible time frames for Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jan 2019 · 1 response

President Jair Bolsonaro embarks on his first trip abroad as President. Accompanied by cabinet ministers, he will take part in the Davos World Economic Forum. The VP, Hamilton Mourão, takes office as interim president. Bolsonaro returns on the 25th and, on the 28th, will undergo surgery in São Pa...

Underlying inflation remained fairly subdued in 2018
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Jan 2019

Inflation remained below target in 2018 for the fifth straight year, reaching 0.8% y/y. Core inflation reached 0.7% similar to last year, despite a weaker shekel and wage pressure. We expect inflation in 2019 to reach 1.1%, assuming fiscal consolidation following the elections spills over to inf...

Politics: Gasoline shortages, an initial crisis
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2019

The government’s decision in late December to launch a nationwide crackdown on the widespread theft of gasoline and other fuels has turned into a crisis in which many gasoline stations were left with only sporadic partial deliveries or without fuel entirely for days on end, especially in central ...

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