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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Xi Jinping’s measured Boao speech
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2018

Xi Jinping made a surprisingly concessionary speech at the Boao Forum on April 10 in response to the escalating trade war instigated by the Trump Administration. We had expected him to avoid making any overt signs of concessions to Trump’s trade threats. Perhaps we underestimated how little these...

Inflation rising, after a break in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2018

We revised down our monthly inflation rate estimate for March to 62 percent, significantly lower than our 89 percent forecast.This reflects the lagged effect of the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in February (-8%) which interrupted the vertiginous January surge (+123 pe...

It ain’t over until it’s over
COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Germán Vargas-Lleras is the candidate chosen by president Santos to succeed him. This is the conclusion of the recent coalition between the U-Party and Vargas-Lleras. Santos will use all his power to further this coalition and to prevent Uribe’s protégé, Iván Duque, from winning the presidency. R...

STF may resume discussion on arrest after a second instance conviction and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Apr 2018

Once again, eyes are on the STF, which could resume discussions on imprisonment after conviction in a second instance. Michel Temer may conclude changes to his ministerial team. While he is in Peru, for the Summit of the Americas, the Presidency will be held by STF President Cármen Lúcia. An Ipso...

Economics: The economics of electoral preferences
MEXICO · Report · 09 Apr 2018

Although the economy is one of the two main areas of policy voters are most concerned about (the other being security), the various candidates have failed so far to offer the sort of precise economic policy proposals that might sway the considerable percentage of voters who remain uncommitted. Th...

Politics: A demographic look at the race
MEXICO · Report · 09 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The presidential contest is now in full swing, with the three major contenders and a single independent anxious to consolidate support in key constituencies and woo voters away from their rivals. They all begin with high levels of name recognition, but none of them are viewed positively by most o...

The Evolution of the fiscal picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Apr 2018

The central government’s primary result has improved markedly in the past few months, with the deficit going from 3.2% of GDP in October to 1.6% of GDP in February. However, virtually all the improvement in that span was based on non-recurring revenues, while the recurring primary result continue...

Modest shekel weakening will push inflation higher in April
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Apr 2018

Average wages are accelerating, which is supportive of some inflationary pressure. The shekel has weakened by 3.3% YTD (against the basket) as some Israeli institutions are increasing their FX exposure. We currently expect inflation to increase by 0.9% cumulatively in the next three months (in pa...

Fidesz has narrowly won back constitutional majority
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2018

At today's parliamentary election, Fidesz has narrowly won back its previous two-third majority, providing it with the right to amend the constitution and high-power parliamentary acts. With 95% of all votes counted, Fidesz has 66.8% of all seats, followed by 13.1% held by the radical right-wing ...

At the doors of purgatory
TURKEY · Report · 08 Apr 2018

Defining moments in Turko-American relationship are approaching fast, as an evangelical protestant pastor, Mr. Brunson, lines up for trial, where a guilty sentence could seriously upset the Congress, and even the White House. The trial will come on the heels of the sentencing of convicted Iran sa...

Panama – Venezuela: a crescendo, on the eve of the Summit of the Americas
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Apr 2018

The Panama – Venezuela crisis is part of a process that began last year. The crescendo comes just a week before the Summit of the Americas, scheduled on April 13-14 in Lima, Peru. In October 2017, the Panamanian government set visa requirements for Venezuelan citizens. Two months later, the Venez...

Six More Years
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Apr 2018

Vladimir Putin won the presidential election with an overwhelming 77% of the vote and voter turnout of 67.5%. Although some of this may be a result of fraud, it is clear that the large majority of the votes were won because of popular support. Mr. Putin won in every single federal entity in the c...

Commercial and diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Panama in a lowest point in recent history
PANAMA · In Brief · 06 Apr 2018

Venezuela suspended several commercial and financial activities with Panama’s Government and a group of Panamanian companies as a measure to protect “their economic system”. The list includes President Juan Carlos Varela and all his Ministers, and Panama’s flag carrier Copa Airlines. On April 5th...

Temer’s popularity remains stable and the population begins to perceive economic recovery
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2018

The CNI/Ibope poll released this Thursday, April 5, shows that the popularity of Michel Temer remains practically unchanged compared to the poll from December of last year. However, there has been an improvement of “regular” evaluations and a decrease in negative evaluations compared to September...

Consequences of the Supreme Court decision to reject Lula’s habeas corpus
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Apr 2018

The Federal Supreme Court’s decision to reject Lula’s habeas corpus (HC) by 6 votes to 5 is an emblematic defeat for the former president and the PT. The result of the trial will have important political consequences.

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