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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Deceleration of growth and political uncertainty
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The real interest rates (both the current SELIC and 12-month ahead) are below the neutral level, but the Brazilian economy has still only been recovering fitfully. There are no inflationary risks on the horizon, and the main reason is this slow recovery of economic activity. With a high degree of...

Economics: A new round of mixed indicators in April
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2018

Economic news this past month portrayed an economy in which some segments continue to struggle to sustain or regain growth even as more general indicators outperform expectations. A case in point was last week’s Global Economic Activity Index or IGAE, which showed the Mexican economy cruising alo...

Politics: How the post-debate plays out
MEXICO · Report · 30 Apr 2018

In the first of this year’s presidential candidates’ debates last week Andrés Manuel López Obrador entered as the undisputed frontrunner and unsurprisingly became the target of roughly 70% of all questions and political jabs during the fray. To the extent that he had any clear strategy for the de...

Worrying signs: The weakness of the labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

When we revised our projection for GDP growth in 2018 to 2.2%, we assumed that expansion of household consumption, although less intensely, would lead to that result, and stressed that the performance of the job market was fundamental for that projection. The most recent data, however, trigger a ...

Exit from the integrated world may be costly
CHINA · Report · 30 Apr 2018

Chinese economic growth was stable in Q1. GDP was up 6.8% y/y, flat on Q4. Industrial output was up 6.8% y/y, and up 0.6 pps from Q4. Investment rose 7.5% y/y in Q1, up 1.7 pps from the lowest growth rate of 2017 (seen in Q3). However, the price-adjusted investment growth rate rose only 1.2%...

We waited so long
CHILE · Presentation · 30 Apr 2018

After four years of slow growth, the economy seems to be recovering. While low investment and flat credit are caveats, the central bank is almost ready to hike.

EL SALVADOR: Critical political developments
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

Political developments remain critical in El Salvador. The March 1st congressional elections revealed the weaknesses of the leftist ruling party FMLN, reflecting dissatisfaction with its leadership for two consecutive presidential terms. Whether or not the political environment will help unlock k...

On a knife-edge till March 2019
TURKEY · Report · 29 Apr 2018

This month’s report arrives in your inboxes in a Q&A format once again, allowing us to address a myriad of questions that we receive from our esteemed colleagues and clients, in the most effective way. With Gul declining to enter the race, Erdogan remains our favorite to clinch the Presidency,...

Tsinghua Unigroup: The “bank” behind China’s semiconductor ambitions
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Apr 2018

Tsinghua Unigroup is a spin-off of Tsinghua University, the MIT of China. It has developed into a conglomerate that is one of the key funding sources for China’s semiconductor industry. Unigroup raised an initial fund of Rmb180 billion from corporations, banks and state funds. Since then, it has ...

Ecuador Conference Call: Positive momentum – with challenges
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Apr 2018

Can Ecuador's positive 2017 growth pace be sustained in 2018? Will the new economic plan produce the necessary fiscal adjustment? Can the country defend itself against a growing terrorist threat?

Globalizations and its constraints
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Apr 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The current round of trade disputes should not be seen as merely a minor Trump-created speedbump on the road to a single global economy. They are part of a longer-term trend in which we are likely to see increasing antipathy to globalization. • While...

A rate hike in May? (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Apr 2018

In its latest meeting this week, the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) announced a weaker outlook on the exchange rate for its planning horizon (by P1/$ to a range of P50-53/$ from P49-P52/$) that we think will have short term monetary policy implications. The DBCC is an inter-agen...

Turkey Conference Call: Snap Elections: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly and Everything in Between
TURKEY · Report · 25 Apr 2018

Will the early election in Turkey bring longer-term stability to the markets? What are the implications of an early consolidation of power by President Erdogan? A conference call featuring our Istanbul-based Local Partners, Atilla Yesilada and Murat Ucer, "Turkey's Snap Elections: The Good, the B...

MPC: Positive Surprise, Fuzzy Statement
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Apr 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee hiked the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by a somewhat higher than expected 75 bps, to 13.5%, leaving all other rates unchanged (see chart). Expectations were a bit all over the place before the meeting, but they had more or less (including our own, broadly speakin...

What we feared is starting to become reality
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Apr 2018

Well, it is still about a week to go until the EU Commission is coming forward with its 2021-2027 budget proposal, but there is already an increasing number of signals, including official remarks and leaks alike, which are giving away important parts of the story.Most recently, a Financial Times ...

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