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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A shake up of unknown dimensions
MEXICO · In Brief · 23 Apr 2018 · 1 response

On Sunday night, the wonderful Palacio de Minería in Mexico City hosted the first of three debates in the presidential campaign. The five candidates had a magnificent opportunity to present and compare their proposals before the voters. As we noted in our brief last night, the debate was going to...

What to expect after the first month
CHILE · Report · 23 Apr 2018

Our reading of February’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity is positive, based on the fact that that the 3.6% seasonally adjusted 12-month variation of the IMACEC, excluding mining, was the largest since we’ve started using official data. Retail sales grew at a healthy rate in February, and the ...

Presidential polls likely to see few changes and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2018

Minister of Finance Eduardo Guardia is expected to present a proposal to President Michel Temer to simplify the PIS/Cofins. Technicians from the Civil House and Ministry of Labor discuss Labor Reform regulations; the provisional measure that made changes to the reform loses its validity on Monday...

Economics: Airport suddenly dominates the campaign
MEXICO · Report · 23 Apr 2018

The issue that has dominated Mexico’s presidential campaign in the past few days is that of the new Mexico City airport that is intended to serve as the country’s most important domestic and international hub. It became apparent decades ago that the current Mexico City airport was inadequate to m...

Monetary policy: Fiscal and external influences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Apr 2018

With inflation contained, expectations anchored and the long end of the yield curve not indicating any sign of eroded credibility of the Central Bank, the maintenance of the interest rate at low levels for an extended period depends mainly on the success of fiscal consolidation. The current gover...

Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The clear deterioration of the balance of payments augurs difficult days ahead. We update our foreign exchange cash flow projection for 2018 taking into account two significant pieces of information: lower than expected oil production and exports in the first quarter of 2018 and the resumption of...

MPC conveys a hawkish tone with rate hike forecast in Q418
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Apr 2018

The PMI was up 1.1 points in March to 54.7 on strong export growth. The BoI rate hold decision was expected, but we note a somewhat hawkish tone in the announcement. Zoom in: If inflation expectations spike this summer on higher year-over-year inflation, the possibility of early tightening ca...

How They Stand Ahead of Debate
MEXICO · In Brief · 22 Apr 2018

To date, the most significant take-away from opinion polls is that Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), presidential candidate of the coalition Together We Will Make History, is the frontrunner. While the polls differ significantly on how much of a lead AMLO enjoys (8 to 23 percentage points) over...

Sixty days of nail-biting suspense
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2018

Our coverage of early elections scene starts by answering FAQs, such as whether Gul will run, the Good Party will be allowed to contest the race, and the mechanics of large-scale fraud. We then move on to the polls, which reveal AKP-MHP clinging to a narrowing lead in the parliamentary elections....

Election time is over, but the show goes on
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Apr 2018

Less than two weeks after the parliamentary election of April 8, the streets of Budapest saw the second big demonstration since the vote against the Fidesz government today. There were roughly 30k participants at todays's action and even more one week ago, which counts as quite a big crowd in Hun...

Sudden attacks rattle an inexperienced government
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018 · 3 responses

For the last 40 years, Ecuador is fortunate to have been virtually untouched by the terrorism plaguing neighbors Colombia and Peru. Now that’s abruptly changed: over the past month, four soldiers were killed, three journalists were kidnapped and executed, and a young tourist couple was kidnapped,...

It turns out 2017 wasn’t so bad after all for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s Growth: GDP growth for 2017 as a whole came in at 1.3%, following the trough of 0.6% in 2016. Seasonally adjusted GDP in the last quarter of 2017 increased by 3.1%, and this was the third consecutive positive quarterly growth rate following the second and...

Higher-than-expected inflation is weakening the support for inflation targeting
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The rate of inflation in the first quarter of 2018 has deviated significantly from the targets set by the Central Bank and the forecasts of most private consultants, ourselves included. The deviation was particularly large in March, and the online price indicator suggests that it will be even lar...

Notes from Beijing: Tighter control of the banks
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Apr 2018

After a week in Beijing we learned that the shift to new regulatory management, coupled with solidification of Xi Jinping’s power, is resulting in tighter control of China’s banks. There is a systematic effort to reduce reliance on off-balance sheet credit obligations in the banks that is working...

A (tenuous) sign of opposition unity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 19 Apr 2018

On April 17, the National Assembly (AN) approved a criminal investigation against Nicolás Maduro for corruption cases stemming from Odebrecht’s activities in Venezuela, upon request by the Supreme Court of Justice "in exile"[1] and former Attorney General Luisa Ortega Díaz. The decision was appro...

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