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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GUATEMALA: Stability, but with structural problems
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Mar 2018

The 2018-2019 economic outlook for Guatemala shows both stability and structural problems. The country will continue to grow at a moderate rate, of 2.9%-3.5%. But that’s insufficient to pull the population out of poverty. Inflation will stay within the Central Bank’s 3%-5% target range, and the ...

A changing political landscape
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 29 Mar 2018

The political landscape is changing: the opposition seems to be strengthening, internal struggles have paralyzed the PLD, President Medina’s approval ratings, while still high, have been declining, and the odds of his third nomination (banned by the Constitution) have weakened in recent months. H...

​“Unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated...”
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2018

The Turkish economy expanded at a faster than expected 7.3% rate in Q4, y/y (1.8%, q/q, work-day and seasonally-adjusted). Together with some upward revisions to previous data, growth was a stellar 7.4% for 2017 as a whole, up from 3.2% in 2016 (Table 1). In terms of expenditure contributions (ou...

Political turmoil amid healthy economic growth
PANAMA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Panama continued the path of solid economic growth during 2017 at 5.4%, which coincided with our projection published in February and later ratified in October. This GDP growth was primarily explained by the dynamics of the external-oriented activities (Panama Canal, ports, air transportation) an...

A timely interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Following a single 25-basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate in 2017 (during the Monetary Policy committee MPC’s July meeting), the South African Reserve Bank has decided to reduce the repo rate for the first time in 2018 by another 25 basis points. This places the repo rate at 6.5% and t...

Peru Conference Call: Continuity or change under a new president?
PERU · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Will PPK's resignation and Martin Vizcarra's accession to the presidency change the perspectives for Peru's needed reforms? What will Vizcarra be able to accomplish during the remainder of his term? Will the country's political instability begin to impact its economic stability? Discussion abo...

Iván Duque: A star on the rise?
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Senator Iván Duque, the leading presidential candidate and a member of Alvaro Uribe’s Centro Democrático, recently presented his ideas about Colombia’s future in Washington and New York. He spoke eloquently in English, but in bumper-sticker style: his comments on justice, corruption, economics, o...

Growth targeted at about 6.5%
CHINA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced during a March 5th address to the People’s Congress of Beijing that China’s growth target for 2018 would be about 6.5%, the same as in 2017, when growth reached 6.9%. The yuan will be “basically stable” at a reasonable level, Li also predicted. More local gover...

A rate hike in May?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Mar 2018 · 1 response

The signal has been sent. In its press statement following last Thursday’s Monetary Board (MB) decision to keep monetary policy settings on hold, the BSP “noted that inflation expectations have started to rise” and “that economic growth remains solid enough to absorb some policy tightening if war...

Monetary Council meeting: (almost) exactly as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Mar 2018

Today's Monetary Council meeting has brought about to no change in the MNB's interest rates, the access to the 3-month deposit, non-conventional policies and inflation forecast. Regarding the latter, the Bank expects 2.5% average CPI-inflation this year, 2.9% in 2019, and 3% in 2020, also predict...

Economic data is positive but needs to improve, while the presidential race remains between AMLO and Anaya
MEXICO · Report · 27 Mar 2018

Economic results and broader developments were generally positive over the past month. However, while numbers largely remained in the black, they could not hide the fact that growth has continued to slow and in some cases revealed outright contractions, even as inflation has failed to decelerate ...

Housing rental prices expected to accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Recent economic indicators point to fairly steady growth, and macro fundamentals remain shekel positive with accelerating exports (both services and industrial) supporting the CA surplus. In other economic news, we have revised our inflation forecast upwards for April to 0.4% m/m (from 0.3% m/m) ...

No change is likely at tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2018

The market expects absolutely no policy change at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting, either through interest rates or in the area of non-conventional policies. This corresponds to our view, which is based on two circumstances. First, the MNB may not want to take any significant action immediately b...

The presidential election: Temer’s candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Little doubt remains regarding the pre-candidacy of Michel Temer (MDB). In an interview with IstoÉ magazine this week, he said it would be “cowardice” not to run. He also stated that the main reason for his candidacy is so he can defend his legacy. It is still somewhat surprising that he would ru...

Lula’s legal battle and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Expectations are building regarding the appeals of former President Lula in the TRF-4; given the result of the first trial (3-0), the probability is that these appeals will be unanimously rejected. Due to the October elections, the ministerial reshuffle will begin. Two ministers (Healthcare and T...

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