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Downward pressure on growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Growth is facing downward pressure. Chinese fixed asset investment, a key growth driver, was up by a new low of just 3.9% y/y in May, and down 3.6 pps from Q1, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would apply tariffs of 25% to roughly $50 billion worth of Chinese goods....

​(B)ahceli for Victory
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

These are my first impressions, which are likely to evolve during the course of the day. It is too simplistic to say “Erdogan and AKP-MHP have won, and nothing will change”. First, AKP has lost big, dropping 7 handles vs. November 2015 general elections. Erdogan has only clinched victory, because...

​Final Post: Erdogan and AKP-MHP win, unofficially speaking
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

I must stop my coverage before the final drama starts to be able to serve my audience fresh and early tomorrow. Despite its promises beforehand, at 12:15 midnight, the High Election Council is yet to announce the preliminary results of the elections. This minor detail has not stopped Erdogan from...

Third Post: Erdogan readying for “balcony speech", opposition disputes AA reports
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

According to independent Haberturk TV, Erdogan has won in the first round, and he will “soon” make another one his famous balcony speeches. While other mainstream broadcasters are more circumspect, already Mahmoud Abbas and İlhan Aliev congratulated Erdogan for his victory. At home MHP leader Bah...

​Second Post:Erdogan and AKP-MHP likely to win
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

With 80-85% of the ballot counted, official media heralds a 4 point lead for Erdogan in the presidential race, while AKP-MHP has a daunting 55 seat majority in the Grand Assembly, as pro-Kurdish HDP scrapes by the 10% qualifying hurdle. The Fair Election website is still down, while the single op...

​First Post: Erdogan and AKP-MHP lead amidst conflicting claims
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2018

At 8 pm Istanbul time, the vote count is proceeding much faster than I had anticipated, thus I decided to start my entries one hour before the scheduled time.Currently, main stream media relying on Anatolian Agency, shows Erdogan leading with 56% of the vote, followed by Muharrem Ince at 29%.In g...

The political impact of Ricardo Martinelli's extradition
PANAMA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2018

Let’s define “uncertainty” in the current context. Panama will formally initiate the political campaign next August when Cambio Democratico (CD), the party created by former President Martinelli (2009-2013) -today on the opposition side- will hold its primary election to nominate the Presidential...

You can read me later
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2018

We are fully aware that this Brief won’t make the top item on your weekend reading list, but since we will not release a weekly report this Sunday (because of elections), we thought we should quickly touch upon some of the developments and data releases of the past week – for the record. May b...

Maduro's "new beginning"
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Diosdado Cabello was elected by consensus, without contenders, as president of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) replacing Delcy Rodríguez after having been in the shadows since 2015. This is a step in chavismo’s reengineering that Maduro dubs as the "new beginning". The decision reflects a...

A weakening of South Africa’s terms of trade results in a significant deterioration of the current account in the first quarter of 2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Jun 2018

There was a marked widening of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments, from 2.9% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 4.8% of GDP in the first quarter of 2018. This was largely due to the deterioration of the trade account during the period; South Africa’s trade balance ...

​Final Words: Polls and undertows
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018 · 1 response

It is time to express my personal thoughts on 24 June election results, and the landscape in their aftermath. Gods willing, I shall start posting comments on this website starting 10-11 pm on Sunday night, to be followed by a brief early Monday.There will be no Weekly Report this week. While thes...

Another rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018

Amidst tumbling financial markets, the Monetary Board (MB) decided today to raise its set of policy rates by 25bp, its second after last month's increase. The key overnight reverse repurchase rate now stands at 3.5%. 

The BSP said that while its latest baseline inflation forecasts have shifted l...

The IMF is unhappy
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Jun 2018

Yesterday the IMF finally made a statement on recent developments around the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC). Christine Lagarde outlined four points to be completed for the fourth review of the program: approval of the supplementary law to formally establish the HACC;amendments to the law on HA...

The MNB today: an eventful day in Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2018

Well, this kind of a monetary policy event cannot be seen very often. Expecting that today's Monetary Council will not bring about any significant development in terms of tightening, the forint weakened further this morning, to EURHUF 324-325, just a bit down from yesterday. And then came the Cou...

​More cabinet changes and FX policies
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 18 Jun 2018

This week will be an interesting thermometer to follow the market mood on Argentina. Even more so with tomorrow´s LEBAC auction, ahead of Wednesday’s formal approval of the stand-by agreement by the board of Directors of the IMF. As part of broader economic adjustments, aligned with the IMFstand-...

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