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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Setting the election stage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2017

Russia’s leadership once again announced its victory in Syria and started a troop withdrawal. The moment was carefully chosen to precede the presidential election in March 2018. However, Russia also demonstrated its long-range bomber strike capability to prove that it will remain involved in the ...

Chinese capital flight 3.0 three new nethods of capital flight are testing the regulators
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Dec 2017

For the ninth straight month, in October China’s foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, reaching US$3.11trn. SDR-denominated foreign exchange reserves also bounced back to a level above $2.2trn. After witnessing China’s crackdown on capital flight in 2017, and with stable foreign exchange r...

Tax reform: down to the wire (4)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 Dec 2017

With, we learned, the Secretary of Finance in attendance facilitating discussions, the Bicameral Conference Committee on the tax reform bill pulled a couple of all-nighters since last week to finally have a reconciled version of tax package 1. The two chambers of congress are expected to ratify t...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2017

The fragility of the Temer administration is demonstrated by the obstacles it faces in obtaining approval of the pension reform, undermining the chances of victory of a candidate drawn from the current governing coalition in next year’s presidential race. This situation is reason for high anxiety...

Economic recovery and political conflict
PERU · Report · 11 Dec 2017

While the economy is showing clear signs of improvement, the political realm is riven by strife. Corruption allegations linked to Brazilian construction firms’ scandals seem to be extending to all ambits of government. Still-unclear information from Brazil suggests that Keiko Fujimori’s 2011 pres...

Week of December 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2017

The government continues negotiations around Pension Reform ahead of a possible vote next week. The Lower House may vote on the bill that deals with the renegotiation of rural debt, and the Senate may conclude the vote on the provisional measure that extends the special customs regime for the oil...

2017 inflation: 2300 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2017 · 1 response

​Hyperinflation is the new normal in Venezuela since November. We estimate that the monthly inflation rate reached 56 percent in November and project 61 percent for December. This forecast has a slight downside risk due to seasonal factors, but hyperinflation dynamics could easily override season...

Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2017

The Central Bank cut the interest rate by 50 basis points to 7% at the last COPOM meeting of 2017, and signaled a residual reduction at the start of next year. The inflationary picture remains very benign, strengthening our belief that the interest rate will not be raised in 2018. The communiq...

Economics: Divining future economic policy
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2017

Only two of the major campaigns (Morena and the Front) have registered their 2018 platforms so far. However, when it comes to economic proposals both show a mix of orthodoxy and programs clearly designed to appeal to voters troubled by weakened household economies and an international context mar...

Politics: AMLO and front vying for discontents
MEXICO · Report · 11 Dec 2017

The latest public opinion poll conducted by GEA-ISA provides data on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the parties, and their actual or future candidates, and casts doubt on some widely held assumptions. In terms of voter’s party preferences, the PRI, PAN, and Morena all enjoy about 20%...

Q3 GDP and October BOP
TURKEY · Report · 11 Dec 2017

Here are some quick reactions on today’s two important data releases, which we shall follow up in the coming days and reports, with more analysis/thoughts. GDP growth surprised on the upside in Q3, coming in at a whopping (unadjusted) 11.1%, y/y and 9.6% (working day-adjusted), higher than the...

Saakashvili arrested, tension rises
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Dec 2017

Late in the night on December 8 Mikheil Saakashvili was arrested and this time successfully. He was escorted to jail of the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU). His supporters called for a new meeting on December 10 and they really gathered few thousands of protesters who called for impeachment. All...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2017

We rate political risk in Turkey as high, but can’t generate a prediction regarding its direction. Much will depend on the outcome of the Hakan Atilla Iran sanctions trial. In case of a guilty verdict (our likely scenario), Ankara will have to choose between a political settlement and defiance. A...

Political reading of Cristina’s imprisonment request
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 08 Dec 2017

On Thursday December 7th, Federal judge Claudio Bonadio (who is about to retire) requested the Senate to annul the Congressional immunity of recently sworn-in senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) and ordered her subsequent detention. This request came together with the actual detention (a...

November inflation: no surprise, no concern
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2017

The November CPI-inflation data is out this morning. The headline rate was 0.4% mom, 2.5% yoy, the latter up from 2.2% yoy in October. This was in line with the market consensus. Just as we wrote in a related note earlier this week, the upturn of the yoy headline rate should be no reason for conc...

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