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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Sweet and Sour Year End
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Dec 2017

The year closes with a mix of good and bad data and news. Politically, the government managed to pass its economic agenda through Congress (tax reform, fiscal responsibility, transfer to provinces, social security, financial transaction tax and 2018 budget ), with the support of the traditional P...

Hope of Deliverance
CHILE · Report · 29 Dec 2017

Markets celebrated Sebastian Piñera’s second-round election victory. The peso appreciated and the stock market jumped. We will have to wait a little bit to determine whether this optimism translates into improved business confidence and a pickup in investment. As of November, business confidence ...

​Political power struggle at year end
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Dec 2017

Wednesday night the Government managed to close the year with the approval of the remaining three economic bills which were debated until late night in the Senate. These are: 1) the 2018 budget, 2) the tax reform and 3) the extension of the financial transaction tax. These three laws, together wi...

Ending 2017 with new optimism
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Dec 2017

New optimism has emerged in the period approaching the end of 2017. While in the first half of the year skepticism abounded because of the slow growth in corporate sales of many companies, in Q3 the situation improved a bit. In the last quarter of this year, new optimism was driven by the bright...

Consumption slows down and Panama enters the EU blacklist
PANAMA · Report · 27 Dec 2017

Panama´s economy continues to grow with a real GDP expansion of 5.4% in Q3 and 5.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, construction, financial intermediation and services to business. The bad news was retail trade: following a 6.1% ...

Narrowing the external imbalance
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2017

Growth remained stable in November, with industrial output up 6.1% y/y. Fixed asset investment excluding agriculture was up 6.3% y/y, up 0.5 pps from October, and up 2.4 pps from its August nadir. However, the current investment growth rate is still lower than investment goods’ price growth rate,...

Looking ahead to 2018, AMLO’s fantasy cabinet disappoints
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Economic indicators were mixed in December as the leading index for October showed its first negative adjustment in ten months (-0.02 compared to September), but remained in positive range. This slight setback reflected a softening of the growth trend in manufacturing payrolls, and a drop in the ...

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has pardoned ex-president Fujimori
PERU · In Brief · 24 Dec 2017 · 1 response

This afternoon after a special cabinet meeting PPK granted a humanitarian pardon to ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Yesterday Fujimori was hurriedly taken to a local clinic because of an arrhythmia. In the highly polarized political situation Peru is undergoing, it is expected that the anti-Fujimo...

Stockholm arbitration clarifies on its decision: both Naftogaz and Gazprom call victory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2017

On Dec 22 Naftogaz published a release describing details on decision of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on lawsuit of Russian Gazprom against Naftogaz. According to the release Stockholm Arbitration: recognized $352 per tcm gas price for Ukraine in 2Q 2014 instead ...

Holding our breath at least until January
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

We see two scenarios for 2018. In one, Nicolás Maduro consolidates his position as head of a radicalized authoritarian regime and remains in power through a sham election early in the year, at great economic and human cost. In the other, social and economic hardship at home and pressure from abro...

Dark, like oil
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017 · 1 response

The outlook for the Venezuelan economy in 2018 is dire. Deep depression and hyperinflation augur hard times. Policy reforms are unlikely and foreign funding will not lift Venezuela out of its problems, for now.

From rabbits, back to elephants
TURKEY · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017

The year will close with a stellar growth rate, at around 6.5% we now estimate, thanks to massive stimulus measures and to a lesser extent growth in net exports. But macro imbalances have worsened as well, with inflation likely to end the year at around 11.5%, up from 8.5% at end-2016, and the cu...

COSTA RICA: Dynamism is waning
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

Costa Rica’s economic activity continues decelerating, more or less in line with our 2017 forecast, despite official optimism about expected real GDP growth. The slowdown is quite generalized across sectors. We reiterate the influence of both external and domestic factors. Rising interest rates i...

Polls, non-performing loans and downgrades
COLOMBIA · Report · 20 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Polls on the presidential race are still in an early stage of their Evolution. Apparently, the supply of and demand for votes are not matching quite yet in the political market. From our point of view, voters older than 35 and clientele voters will beat young urban and left-leaning voters. The wi...

Most do not believe Temer will run for re-election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Dec 2017

President Michel Temer will not run for re-election, according to the belief of 83% of the 209 congressional representatives polled by Arko Advice on December 5-7. Representatives from 24 political parties in the Lower House of Representatives were polled. Even within the President’s party, the P...

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