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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Following a weak Q218, a modest improvement expected in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Most economic indicators underline soft growth in Q218, but some modest acceleration is expected in Q3. Despite the BoI criticism, fiscal credibility is expected to be maintained and fiscal adjustments likely following the 2019 elections. Most factors are pointing to modest inflation: shekel appr...

Despite financial turbulence, fundamentals are sound
CHINA · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Growth is still stable amid the uncertainty of trade war. Industrial output was up 6% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, and down 0.6 pps from Q2, still in a stable zone. Investment increased 3% y/y in July, down 2.2 pps from Q2, and down 3.8 pps from July 2017, showing a stark decline. But p...

Risk-off
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 27 Aug 2018

The past few months have proved challenging for the Philippines amidst risk-off global market conditions and a string of surprises that have led to the current mood of heightened caution. Despite robust domestic demand, economic growth slowed sharply, dragged down by net exports. Capacity const...

​Post-vacation agenda:Pastor Brunson is joined by Idlib Crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2018

It was anything but a tranquil Eid al-Fitr in Ankara. Despite public denials, backdoor negotiations to end the stalemateabout Pastor Brunson and other American detainees in Turkey moved ahead without a break-through. Theseefforts were joined by shuttle diplomacy between Ankara and Moscow, as Assa...

A $725 million private placement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Aug 2018

On August 24, in the midst of National Independence Day celebrations, Ukraine raised $725 million at the international market through private placement. I have a mixed impression from this issue. The funds have been attracted only for six months. And the yield was reported 9% which is quite expen...

A post-holiday recap
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2018

Before another -- most likely -- volatile week starts on Monday, after this week’s calm thanks to the long religious holiday, I thought a quick (economics-focused) sequel to our last joint-piece (The Week of Fear and Loathing, August 12, 2018) might be useful. What has helped us get through the m...

Fiscal data for H1 signify the need to tighten policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018

A few days ago, the MNB reported the general government's net financing requirement for Q2 at 2.2% of GDP, which implies 1.4% of GDP for the whole of H1. These figures are compiled according to ESA-2010, just as the general government balance, the main fiscal policy indicator for EU-members, but ...

Land Trumps SA Political Economy Concerns
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Understandably, the issue of land expropriation without compensation is a big prevailing debate in the country, it has been since December 2017 when the ANC Elective Congress resolved to consider land distribution without expropriation. This then led to a Parliamentary Vote, proposed by the EFF a...

Alckmin’s performance in SP, MG and RJ is cause for concern
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2018

The data presented in Datafolha polling in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, the three states with the most voters in the country (41.50% of the electorate), are cause for concern for Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB). Numerically trailing Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) in São Paulo, the PSDB’s stronges...

The race begins with Lula and Bolsonaro in the lead
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2018

The first Datafolha poll released after the official registration of presidential candidates reveals a scenario that is very similar to the one presented by Ibope earlier this week. In the scenario without Lula (PT), Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is in the lead, with Marina Silva (REDE) in second. Ciro Go...

Monetary Council rate-setting meeting: no change, no surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2018

There was no policy change whatsoever coming out of today's monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council. Rising central bank interest rates, oil market events, trade war prospects and Turkish events were all mentioned by the communiqué, as factors requiring cautious watch and considerati...

Polls reveal the strength of Lula and Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The presidential polls released yesterday (Ibope and CNT/MDA) show that Lula (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) are well positioned in the race. Even if his candidacy is barred by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the former president has enough political capital (support from one third of the e...

From bad to worse
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The plan Maduro unveiled on 17 August 2018 aims at coping with the risks of social outbreak and blind violence sparked by hyperinflation and recession. Yet, it doesn’t address the root of the problems and rather raises the specter of ungovernability. Local industry may get further hurt along the ...

Economics: A legacy of debt and narrow public finance margins
MEXICO · Report · 20 Aug 2018

Analysts have been concerned for some time about the direction of public finance in Mexico, but such considerations have been largely overshadowed by the headline-grabbing 2018 presidential campaign and its results, including the presidential transition process, the uncertainty surrounding Nafta ...

Electoral race Q&A and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2018

The second week of electoral campaigning begins. Several national and state-level polls will be released in the coming days. Presidential candidates will take part in a debate on TV Record. Wednesday is the deadline for the presentation of requests to contest the validity of candidacies. The Fede...

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