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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Negotiations will shed light on 2018 outlook
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Nicolás Maduro wants to stay in power. Whether he will do so through a snap election in early 2018 with no pretense of fairness or legitimacy or by making concessions to boost his government’s legitimacy before semi-competitive elections later in the year is up in the air. Many analysts think tha...

Elections in Chile: Polarization?
CHILE · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Now that the dust has settled and the campaign for the run-off has truly begun, only two things are certain: the race between Sebastían Piñera and Alejandro Guillier is a toss-up (the latest polls have them basically tied) and Chile has become increasingly and perhaps dangerously polarized. Judgi...

Nascent Recovery Could Be Tempered by Political Outcomes
CHILE · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Though Q2 figures clearly confirmed the sluggishness of the Chilean economy in H1, Q3 numbers offered some green shoots, especially in exports and machinery, and in equipment investment. GDP growth recovered, to 2.2% y/y in Q3, from 1% y/y in Q2, with production strongly favoring the volatile nat...

The China connection begins amid anticipated fiscal performance and public-sector budget
PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2017

Economic activity, measured by the Monthly Index of Economic Activity, grew 4.4% y/y in September and 5.6% from January to September. External activities such as the Panama Canal, ports, tourism, and airport traffic, as well as construction showed continuous growth, while Colon Free Zone re-expor...

Economic and political perspectives
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 01 Dec 2017

Is the economy showing signs of a slight recovery? How will the government comply with the fiscal rule over the medium-to-long term? How are the scenarios shaping up for the 2018 presidential election? This presentation highlights the medium term outlook for Colombia’s fiscal, monetary, and econo...

​Turkish politics just got a lot uglier
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2017

While the world is fixated on the earth-shattering revelations of gold trader Mr. Reza Zarrab in the Iran sanctions violations trial of Turkish names, developments at home could possibly wipe off the last vestiges of democracy. I find it hard to believe markets have discounted all the potential d...

Economic and fiscal waters still choppy
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Nov 2017

The government argues that economic performance hasn’t been so bad, given the shocks since oil prices began plummeting in 2014. The opposition, in political campaign mode in the runup to the May 2018 elections, focuses more on the bleak numbers, contending growth is insufficient for continuing to...

GUATEMALA: The Good and the Bad
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2017

This year hasn’t been bright for the Guatemalan economy. Real GDP growth is expected to fall below the 3.1% of 2016, despite U.S. economic recovery and large private remittance inflows. Inflation will be in the upper parte of the 3%-5% target range. Monetary policy remains under the control of t...

Tax reform: down to the wire (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Nov 2017

The Senate finally passed yesterday its tax reform bill (Senate Bill 1592) on third and final reading. Even though the press release headlined a P160-billion expected yield, it left many, including the technocrats in the Department of Finance unimpressed, mainly because senators introduced certai...

China should not liberalize the economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Nov 2017 · 6 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There are two different reform programs proposed for China which are often conflated, but in fact the two programs are very different and in conflict. • The mainstream reform program consists of reforming institutions in order to enhance productivit...

​Three banks cited in Iran sanctions case
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Nov 2017 · 2 responses

With jury selection completed, and Reza Zarrab officially out of the defendants list, the re-named “People of America vs. Hakan Atilla”, or the Iran sanctions trial will take start on Tuesday at 5:30 pm Turkish time, according to the Turkish press. Jurors have been briefed that three Turkish bank...

Week of November 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Nov 2017

Negotiations between the Executive and Legislative around Pension Reform will continue. The Lower House and Senate will try to vote on provisional measures that deal with rural debt and the creation of a regulatory agency for the mining sector; both expire on Tuesday, November 28. Important econo...

Economics: Positive Signs from Nafta Round 5
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2017

The fifth round of the Nafta renegotiations proved to be something of an improvement over the stalemate of the previous round, which had heightened pessimism about the pact’s fate. Negotiators made progress on technical details that are the bedrock of the trade pact. Canada and especially Mexico ...

2017-2019 forecast: a crumbling economy and Maduro in power
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2017

Our 2017–2019 forecast sees the economy crumbling, hyperinflation setting in, and Maduro's policies staying in place. GDP falls by a quarter over our forecast horizon, and inflation approaches 23,000 percent by 2019. Oil output and exports continue to slip, but the current account becomes positiv...

Politics: More Pieces of of the 2018 Puzzle in Place
MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2017

The next two weeks are shaping up to be decisive for the 2018 electoral process, and parties will have sorted out by mid December the procedures through which they will select their nominees for office. With Andrés Manuel López Obrador having a lock on the nomination of his center-left Morena...

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