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Expectations improved after the post-electoral announcements
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2017

After winning the mid-term election, President Macri outlined his future policies in a short and clear speech on October 30, 2017. He announced that his government will pursue policies aimed at reducing poverty, opening the Argentine economy to the world, fighting inflation and reinvigorating gro...

Politics: Spiraling Murder Rate Largely Ignored
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2017 · 1 response

The latest official data showed the death toll from intentional homicides (2,564) made September the second deadliest month on record, surpassed only by June’s tally. In relative terms – murders per 100,000 inhabitants – we probably have already surpassed the previous peak year of 2011, when the...

Economics: Pemex Profits Belie Capex Effects
MEXICO · Report · 06 Nov 2017

When releasing its preliminary results for the third quarter of 2017 last week, Petróleos Mexicanos once again decided to emphasize the results of its efforts to strengthen the company’s financial health while trying to avoid as much as possible the extent to which oil and gas production has cont...

Slow Recovery of Industrial Production and Investments
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2017

The data for September confirm that industrial output is still recovering, but at a slow pace. Although production of capital goods dipped after having expanded for five straight months, the growth of capital goods imports will lead to an increase in gross fixed capital formation. All the same, w...

Maduro's foreign debt strategy
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Nov 2017 · 3 responses

After keeping markets on the edge by delaying payment on the Pdvsa 2020 until the last minute, Nicolás Maduro announced he is moving to “refinance and restructure” (sic) Venezuela’s foreign debt, thereby opening a new political front with default on the horizon. On Thursday 2 November, Maduro den...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 05 Nov 2017 · 1 response

We now rate Turkey’s political risk profile as high and rising among peer EMs. The upcoming trial of Mr. Reza Zarrab is likely to throw negative news Turkey’s way. He may have already chosen to cooperate with the prosecution. If this is true, the odds of a guilty verdict for the other defendant(s...

Further bad news on inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2017

Regarding CPI-inflation, which happens to be in the MNB's narrow focus, almost everything is fine for now, or at least so it seems from where the Monetary Council is looking. But we think inflation is a much broader concept, and its various aspects are unlikely to remain fully isolated in any lon...

October Inflation: Another Bad Print
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2017

At 2.1%, m/m, consumer price inflation surprised on the upside, with the 12-month rate rising to just under 12% (11.9%), up from 11.2% in September. Producer prices also rose sharply, to 17.3%, from 16.3% a month earlier, attesting to continuation of cost-push pressures and quite possibly, a chan...

CBRT Report: Buying Time, But For What?
TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2017 · 1 response

The CBRT has released this year's final Inflation Report today. The 2017 year-end estimate was revised upwards by 1.1 percentage points (pps) to 9.8% (midpoint of a band between 9.3% and 10.3%), from the previous report’s estimate, which, notably, is also higher than the 9.5% estimate in the late...

The Apple of Discord
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Oct 2017

The 2018 national budget as approved by Congress included some significant differences from the original proposal, mainly in the partial restoration of severe proposed cuts to investment and spending. Congress raised investment to 4.1% of GDP, from the proposed 3.5% of GDP (yet it’ll still be dow...

A step closer to formal dictatorship
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Oct 2017 · 1 response

The government beat all expectations in state elections held last October 15 thanks to a combination of low opposition turnout, electoral machine efficiency, and dirty National Electoral Council tricks. These results may have cleared the way for Nicolás Maduro’s regime to consolidate as an undemo...

Week of October 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2017

This Thursday’s holiday will reduce the pace of legislative activity in Congress. Rep. Rodrigo Maia makes an official trip to the Middle East and Europe. The government sends fiscal austerity measures to Congress. Ilan Goldfajn speaks to Congress on monetary policy. IBGE releases unemployment dat...

GDP growth doesn’t mean what you think it means
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Over the next few years either reported GDP growth in China will drop very sharply, probably to well below 2-3 percent, or it must surge to levels that will rival or surpass reported GDP growth in the 1990s and 2000s, probably to well above 10 percen...

The End of the Easing Cycle and the SELIC in 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2017

As expected, the Central Bank cut the interest rate from 8.25% to 7.50% and clearly signaled the intention to lower it to 7.0% at the last COPOM meeting of 2017. There remains the doubt about a final cut of 25 points at the start of 2018, which will be determined by the upcoming data. But our est...

Bad Overshadowing (Some) Good
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Oct 2017

Costa Rica’s short-term indicators continue to show economic activity slowdown, in line with our outlook for 2017. Lower capital inflows from abroad are one reason. The severe monetary contraction after the May FX turbulence is also reducing financial resources, thereby dampening consumer spendin...

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