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Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Oct 2017

As the Turko-American visa ban enters its second week, hopes for a compromise are high, but concrete developments are meager. Ankara continues to implicate the American “Deep State” in the July 2016 coup attempt. Escalation of the conflict is unlikely, but the mutual ban appears here to stay. ...

On the eve of 15 October 2017
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Oct 2017

The importance of these elections comes from its potential effectiveness in heralding change in 2018. For the first time in chavismo’s history, the opposition is visibly ahead and the government has confessed it: Maduro announced that chavismo would win 10 state governorships (currently it contro...

President Zuma's Legal Setback: "The Spy Tape 783 Corruption Cases" back on the Table
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2017

Today, the Supreme Court of Appeal (SCA) ruled against President and the National Prosecuting Agency (NPA), declaring that the NPA's decision, back in 2007, to drop the charges of corruption and fraud against the then Deputy President of the ANC, Mr Zuma, was irrational, flawed and illegal. The c...

Tensions rise between Maia and Temer
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2017

Furious with the government’s maneuver of emptying the Lower House Floor session to ensure the reading of the report by Rep. Bonifácio de Andrada (PSDB-MG) on the accusation presented by the PGR against President Temer in the Lower House Constitution and Justice Committee, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) m...

A Not-So-Firm Recovery Due to Political Economy Uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Oct 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: South Africa’s end-2016 – beginning-2017 technical recession came to a welcoming end during the second quarter of 2017 as the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP recorded a growth rate of 2.5% q/q. We expect a positive quarterly GDP growth rate once again during the th...

Accusation against Temer will be rejected, say lawmakers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2017

A poll conducted by Arko Advice shows that 71.23% of congressional representatives believe that the second accusation against President Temer, for obstruction of justice and criminal organization, will be rejected. The poll was taken on October 2-5 with 212 federal representatives from 25 politic...

September inflation: everyone will likely claim to have been right
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2017

CPI-inflation data for September was published this morning. The considerable good news was a marginal drop of the yoy headline rate, to 2.5% from 2.6% in August, in the wake of just 0.1% rise of average prices in September, and a 0.1% monthly decrease of non-fuel prices, leading to an unchanged ...

​Visa ban stand-off: Further escalation unlikely
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2017

Finally, I’m able to write a few intelligent lines about the visa ban stand-off between US and Turkey. The good news is that neither side seems to have an incentive to ratchet up the conflict. The bad news is that a climb-down is not likely in the short-term, barring a break-through in an impendi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017 · 4 responses

Ready to see the second denunciation submitted by Janot considered by the Chamber of Deputies, which should reject it, and suffering from the lowest approval ratings since the Sarney administration, President Michel Temer, with his political burden, has become an important obstacle to the continu...

Temer Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Political Reform increases support for government in September - A study by Arko Advice shows that support for the government increased from 43.8% in August to 54.56% in September. In the study, 21 roll-calls from the last month votes were analyzed. The government was not defeated in any of the...

Week of October 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

A short week due to the holiday on the 12th. In the Lower House, the main event is the report on the accusation against President Michel Temer, which should be presented on Tuesday in the Constitution and Justice Committee. On Wednesday, the Federal Supreme Court rules on a case that could deci...

Politics: A Broken Campaign Finance System
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

The crisis of credibility of political parties that has festered as part of the broader political crisis of the past three years was magnified in the last two weeks amid calls for the public funding of parties to be redirected to earthquake victims and reconstruction efforts. That clamor undersc...

Economics: No Need to Lower GDP Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 09 Oct 2017

While second quarter data prompted upward revisions to the 2017 GDP forecasts of some analysts and authorities, many have begun scaling back those estimates as evidence of a weakening of consumption and investment have emerged over the course of the third quarter. Some have gone as far as to warn...

Political Reform: Rules approved on the deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

A Constitutional amendment and two laws with changes to electoral rules were published on the deadline for effectiveness in next year’s election. The main changes were: the creation of a public fund to finance campaigns, the institution of a performance clause for parties, the end of party coalit...

Fiscal Policy Victories and Frustrations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Oct 2017

​The economic team has been unquestionably racking up victories on the fiscal front, among them changes in the design of the student loan program (Fies); alteration of the system of setting the interest rates charged by the BNDES, which will eliminate implicit subsidies; and measures to combat fr...

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