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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of October 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2017

President Michel Temer and Ministers Eliseu Padilha and Moreira Franco present their respective defenses in the PGR accusations to the Lower House CCJ. Members of the PSDB discuss the merit of the accusations and the choice of rapporteur, which belongs to the party. The Lower House should conclud...

Trend shift: External sector and investment projects will set the new growth dynamic
PANAMA · Forecast · 02 Oct 2017

GDP expanded 5.4% in Q2 due to lower dynamism in wholesale and retail commerce after an impressive 6.2% growth in Q1. GDP grew 5.8% in H1, which presents a shift from the downward trend that started in 2012 (when the works of the Panama Canal expansion as well as several public investment project...

Budget Doubts Cast Pall on 2018, While the Government Acts Promptly after the Earthquake
MEXICO · Report · 02 Oct 2017 · 1 response

Economic indicators were contradictory over the past month. Business and consumer optimism continued to recover, the leading indicator rose for a sixth month in July, and private consumption continued to grow even as there was evidence of a softening in some segments. In news just this past week,...

The Engine of Recovery – Household Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2017

Evidence that household consumption is the predominant force in Brazil’s economic recovery is building up to an ever more solid scenario. However, doubts exist about the intensity of this movement. The decline of the market real interest rate and improvement in the job market and credit supply ar...

El SALVADOR: We’re Pessimistic
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2017

The economic outlook for El Salvador in the short term continues to be for low economic growth, with severe fiscal constraints. Lack of economic dynamism is driven by both political and economic factors. Uncertainty and negative expectations discourage investment. Moreover, fiscal restriction imp...

A really robust fiscal outcome in H1 2017
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Sep 2017

We have suspected for a while that fiscal performance must be markedly stronger than plan this year if viewed at the general government level and on accrual basis, which is the key policy indicator from the point of view of assessment by the EU and investors. But we never thought it was quite as ...

Tax reform: down to the wire? (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Sep 2017

In the first installment on this subject last week, we noted the wide gap between the finance department’s tax reform proposal, originally estimated to yield P157 billion in incremental revenues in the first full year of implementation, and Senate bill 1592 drafted by the ways and means committee...

Green Shoots at Last?
CHILE · Report · 28 Sep 2017

Given the tone of September’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Report, we think it’s extremely unlikely that the Bank will cut rates further. Still, the IPOM introduced a downward bias for the short-term inflation forecast. A further fall in inflation could be a game changer, but the closer we get to...

MTP: Sorry, But It Doesn’t Hang Together
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2017

Today the government announced the broad outlines of its Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2018-20. What we have below is our preliminary reactions, based on the presentation (in Turkish) made by the authorities. We shall follow this up with more thoughts, if need be, once the full document and more...

Ratings Downgrade is a Misleading Overreaction
CHINA · Report · 27 Sep 2017

Growth weakened in August. Industrial output was up 6% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, and down 0.9 pps from Q2, which represented its lowest level of the year. Fixed asset investment, up 4.9%, was likewise at its lowest level of the year, down 3.4 pps from Q2. But the ex-factory price index of ...

Slugging Along, with Few Hopes for 2018
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 Sep 2017

Q2 GDP growth figures clearly showed a weak economy, struggling to reach a mere 1.3% growth. Key indicators released since then show that the economy is still underwater – but also that it’s giving off nascent signs of recovery. The Industrial Confidence Index, after almost a semester of decl...

Economic Outlook
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017

A benign international scenario is favoring Brazil, inflation is falling across the board, and there is a clear increase in consumption, but the fiscal and political pictures are troublesome.

Monetizing debt does not relieve China’s debt burden
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017

The relative pick-up in nominal GDP growth and the deflator reduces the cost of servicing the debt in real terms, but households absorb part of the cost by providing borrowers with hidden rate subsidies. Policies involving any form of monetization to manage debt, such as low lending rates relativ...

The Indian economy
INDIA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017 · 1 response

Aggregating micro data shows a different story than official data. Challenges remain for the Central Bank and the banking industry.

One trillion dollar economy
INDONESIA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017

Prospects remain bright, bolstered by stable macro conditions, a rising middle class, and improving institutions. Infrastructure development is a key focus of the government, especially in tourism.

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