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Moreno 2, Vice presidents 0
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicunia, Vicepresident of Ecuador presented her resignation today after accusations of extortion of public servants during Correa’s government. Vicunia has not denied public servants made payments in exchange of public jobs, but she said those payments were “volunta...

Ukraine raises tensions despite Russian attempts at de-escalation
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

Russia is now allowing Ukrainian merchant ships to and from the Sea of Azov. This is crucial because it allows Ukraine to ship out steel - one of her most valuable exports. President Putin has said that he will allows Ukrainians to become Russian citizens easily. Over a million Ukrainians work in...

COSTA RICA: At last, fiscal reform
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

After almost two decades discussing fiscal reform in Costa Rica, yesterday, December 3, 2018, Congress finally approved the law in the second lecture, with 34 votes in favor and 17 against. The new law was sanctioned the same day by President Carlos Alvarado and Minister of Finance Rocio Aguilar....

The South African economy exits the technical recession in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Dec 2018

Today’s all-important GDP results indicate that the SA economy has pulled out of the recession, as we had anticipated. Stats SA reports that quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP increased by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2018, meaning, indeed, the economy is out of the techni...

Politics: Governors could act as a counterweight
MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Last Saturday, López Obrador finally assumed the position of President of the Republic after a long transition period of actual government decisions. The two speeches delivered - one in front of Congress and the other before followers in the Mexico City Zocalo central square - were, in essence, t...

CEU's departure from Budapest unlikely to lead to direct negative consequences
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

The Central European University (CEU) announced yesterday that it would move from Budapest to Vienna early next year, as the government had failed to sign an agreement with the State of New York, which would be legally required for CEU to have an operating license in Hungary from January 2019. As...

Budget forecast until 2036 published
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2018

On 21 November the Russian Ministry of Finance published a budget forecast that goes up to 2036. These forecasts are published every six years. It is a fascinating insight into Russia's economic thinking. Necessarily these have to be the optimistic side of realistic.The forecast notes that fluctu...

New product labeling rules
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018

On 30 November new product labeling rules were introduced in Russia. Labels will be considered 'a state information system'. Business will be given access to data collated thereby.Prime Minister launched a labeling project run by the Center for the Development of Long Term Technologies (TsRPT) in...

Bolsonaro’s cabinet and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Congress enters its last month of activity before the recess. Among the bills on the agenda are the budget, transfer of rights, real estate contracts and the positive registry. Meetings are scheduled between President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and party leaders. Bolsonaro is expected to conclude...

Economics: Mixed economic indicators and new risks loom
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Economic news released in November included a third quarter GDP report that confirmed growth had rebounded between July and September. However, the 2.5% revised rate left cumulative growth for the first eleven months of the year at a relatively lackluster 2.1%, which is exactly on the mark of wha...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

By nominating Judge Sergio Moro to be the new minister of justice, with carte blanche to propose a program to fight corruption and organized crime, Bolsonaro allayed fears that his oft-times antidemocratic utterances made during the campaign might be put into practice. At the same time he benefit...

The cyclical recovery continues, but is still slow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2018

​The publication of the official GDP figures for the third quarter shows that the cyclical recovery remains in progress, but is still sluggish. Growth in the quarter was 0.8%, after having inched upward by 0.2% in each of the two previous quarters. As is usual in the announcements of third-quarte...

Following last week's hike, tightening path expected to be gradual
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Dec 2018

Policy rates moved higher last week (as we had expected but against market consensus), pushing bond yields higher. We expect the tightening path in 2019 to be very gradual (we see rates at 0.5% by end-2019), and dependent on Fed tightening. Private consumption (non-durables especially) indicator...

November inflation drops sharply on lira, taxes, food
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2018 · 1 response

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November, coming in at negative 1.4%, m/m, dropping about twice faster than the consensus forecast (around 0.7% drop). Twelve-month CPI inflation fell sharply as a result, to 21.6%, from 25.2% in October. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation was als...

Monetary arithmetic revisited
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Nov 2018

Local attention these days is naturally focused on the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, which, from a geopolitical perspective, represents a genuinely historical event for Argentina, and in particular for the Macri administration. Holding the G20 presidency and therefore hosting the annual summit is p...

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