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Political protests: authorities play for time
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

My personal opinion – healthcare reform was a sacrifice to prevent revision of political rules of the game. When reformers had been celebrating approval of healthcare legislation, the authorities tried to derail process of implementing political demands. Firstly, the draft law, which cancels MPs ...

Healthcare reform approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

Yesterday, on October 19 parliament finally approved long-awaited healthcare reform. Frankly, I was skeptical about chances of this badly needed measure but probably protests on the streets sped up the process. Virtually, the reform has been curtailed for some critical features like official co-f...

ABS and Deleveraging in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Oct 2017

• Explosion in ABS. By the end of September, there were 1,129 ABS securities with an outstanding balance of Rmb1.5trn. Encouraged by government policies, we estimate ABS will grow by double digits through 2020. • Fiscal “Band-aid.” The central government has retreated from using fiscal resources...

Fidesz' Main Opposition Is Non-Inflationary Growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2017

Six months ahead of the next regular parliamentary election, the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance remains on course towards an easy victory, with better-than-equal chances for a constitutional majority in the National Assembly. Amidst conditions of rapid wage and employment growth, there is hardly ...

Comments on Xi Jinping’s Speech at the Party Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Oct 2017 · 1 response

​For all the ink that will be spilled on it I think there was nothing in today’s speech by Xi Jinping that is likely to cause anyone to change his mind about China's economic prospects, nor was there ever likely to be. This was meant to be a political speech and to check all the necessary boxes. ...

President Zuma and His 12th Nuclear Cabinet Reshuffle
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2017

Yesterday, in a fairly uncermonious manner, and uncharacteristically during day time, President Zuma introduced his 12th Cabinet reshuffle in 8 years. Mostly, he re-arranged his ministers' portfolios, even some who were appointed a mere 6 months back were moved around. He brought an staunch and y...

Political Protests: Interim Results
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2017

Political protests on October 17 have impressed the authorities. The downtown of the city was flooded with police and military. And it looks like police exceeded the number of protesters. The very action was predominantly peaceful except for few minor clashes. Recall the protestors demand (a) ant...

Kirkuk reverts to Baghdad, Kurds in disarray
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

The disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk rapidly fell to Iraqi Army, as Kurdish peshmerga forces withdrew after putting up symbolic resistance. It appears that divisions between deceased national hero Mr. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) tacitly cooperating with the approaching Iraqi Army, ...

Big Political Action might Reveal Authorities’ Intentions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

Tomorrow, on October 17 there will be a big political action (demonstration) in support of reforms. At least it was advertised as a big one. In fact it will be a critical day for those who still are struggling for changes at the country. Reformation zeal has faded. Elites are returning to “busine...

Week of October 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

The Lower House CCJ is expected to vote on the accusation against President Temer on Thursday, October 19. Portions of Lúcio Funaro’s plea bargain deal revealed by the press could influence discussions. The Senate decides whether to reverse the STF decision that removed Aécio Neves (PSDB) from h...

Localizing elections
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

The United Russia party won Moscow’s municipal elections with 67% of the seats in all the assemblies. However, in several small assemblies, opposition candidates also won some seats and even won majorities. All interim governors appointed by the Kremlin throughout 2016-2017 won their regional...

Retail Sales
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

Household consumption continues to be the driving force of the current recovery, and as is logical, its tendency is closely accompanied by real retail sales. In August, however, real retail sales in the restricted sense dipped slightly. We believe this movement is temporary and does not change th...

Economics: GFI Offers Little Hope of Strong GDP
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

Fixed investment has been trending lower this year as both the public and private sectors have scaled back construction expenditures, and spending on machinery and equipment has been lackluster. Machinery and equipment investment are still expanding, but growth rates fail to approach the kind...

Politics: Splits and Quakes Reshape 2018
MEXICO · Report · 16 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s announcement October 6 that she was resigning from the PAN to run as an independent may have shaken up the 2018 campaign. As the PAN’s best known presidential hopeful, Zavala was drawing roughly the same support in polls as her main rival within the PAN, party chairman Ricardo...

Leverage, Debt Service and Increased Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Oct 2017

On the aggregate demand side, the driving force of the economy is the expansion of household consumption, which is being strongly stimulated by monetary policy, in particular the persistently low market real interest rate. That stimulus comes not only from the preference for present over future c...

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