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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 15
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Brazil Economics databank Oct 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 4
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 18
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 25
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Hungary databank Oct 18
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India databank Sep 24
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Mexico databank Sep 11
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Oct 10
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Russia Economics databank Oct 11
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Oct 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - GEORGIA'S ELECTIONS AND CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA OU...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Economic Risk Balance 2017-2018
MEXICO · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
The economy is growing more rapidly, nourished by domestic consumption and non-oil exports, but risks remain, including US protectionism, rising inflation and political uncertainty.
In Need of a Confidence Boost
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Growth remains fragile, and private sector investment will be the chief determinant of meaningful expansion, but the current political turmoil has led to low confidence among business and the consumer.
Fundamentals vs. Rabbits
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Sep 2017
Turkey’s risk profile is set to rise gradually, probably culminating in a series of elections to begin by mid-2018. Growth this year has been saved, but in the absence of new “tricks” or “rabbits” it is likely to slow next year to around 3%.
Politics: Presidential Ratings Near Rock Bottom
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The latest GEA-ISA nationwide poll of registered voters shows President Enrique Peña Nieto’s disapproval ratings have reached historical highs as the public displays a deep sense of pessimism about how things are likely to evolve in the election year. The administration might possibly glean sn...
Week of September 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2017 · 1 response
The second PGR accusation against President Michel Temer begins its progress in the Lower House. The rapporteur will be chosen on Tuesday, September 26. The Lower House and Senate will also vote on Political Reform proposals. Congressmen will try to reach a deal with the Ministry of Finance on th...
How much equity capital is needed for India’s banks?
INDIA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
In a banking crisis, banks are over-leveraged. We use historical experience to identify certain levels of leverage, which we claim are normative values for the maximal permissible leverage of a bank. We work out the additional equity capital that should go into Indian banking in order to achieve ...
The Rise of the Tourism Industry
INDONESIA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The tourism industry has become another prime mover of the Indonesian economy. Long experiencing relatively slow growth, the industry has gotten increasing attention from the new government. In fact, optimism abounds that in the next few years, the tourism industry will become one of the largest...
Economics: Pros and Cons of Revised NCPI
MEXICO · Report · 25 Sep 2017
In light of the need to regularly update how inflation surveys are conducted to in order to better track consumers’ actual consumption patterns – reflecting changes in consumer preferences for products and services, their availability and relevance to consumers, the sorts of venues in which the p...
New Indications on Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2017
Against a backdrop of anchored inflation expectations and a negative output gap, the Central Bank has induced a decline of the market real interest rate below the neutral level. The indication in the most recent Inflation Report is that the SELIC rate can remain stable for a long period – probabl...
A failed (and unconstitutional) attempt to modify ACP’s budget: Beyond Barria’s case
PANAMA · Report · 25 Sep 2017
Article 220 of Panama's Political Constitution asserts that The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) will present its budget proposal to the Cabinet, which in turn is subject to Congress for its examination, approval, or rejection (Chapter 2, Title 9 of the Panamanian Constitution). This is the basis of ...
How Far Does Moreno Want To Go?
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2017
The ongoing animosity between President Lenin Moreno and former president Correa and the evident lack of support of a majority of legislators still loyal to Correa is a direct threat to the stability and success of this government. However, it has also opened an interest opportunity for More...
Winter Is Coming
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2017
The referendum by Iraqi Kurds, assuming it is held, doesn’t pose a major threat to Turkey’s unity, but its aftermath is almost certain to require Turkish involvement in Iraqi affairs in unpleasant ways. Turkey’s descent into the Middle Eastern “event horizon” will accelerate as Turkish Forces mak...
Did the MNB get what it wanted this week?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2017
Well, no one can ever be sure, but we think it largely did. But what was it actually they wanted?What they did is well-known, yet a short summary might be useful:1. They cut their inflation forecast quite sharply. Even though they still expect headline CPI-inflation to reach the 3% target in Q2 2...
Rains from Hurricane María leave damages well beyond expectations in the East and Northeast
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Sep 2017
As expected, Hurricane María did not hit directly the DR territory but dropped massive amount of water in the East and Northeast of the country.The damages are well beyond expectations. Severe flooding have ocurred in densily populated areas of Duarte, María Trinidad Sánchez, El Seybo, La Altagra...
Waiting for the 19th Party Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Sep 2017 · 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: • Economic activity continues to slow in China, according to the most recent monthly data, and credit continues to accelerate, pretty much in line with what we expected. We have to be very careful, however, about how we interpret the economic activity d...