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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa injects some optimism into the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 17 Jan 2018

South Africa’s Growth: The South African economy has managed to grow at a relatively decent rate (2.0%) during the third quarter of 2017, following the surprise 2.8% growth in the second. Generally, however, the country’s economic growth has been stuck in low gear, averaging only 2.1% over the pa...

Stronger than expected opposition downplays growth optimism
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 16 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Negotiations with governors and trade union leaders during November and discussions in Congress during December proved to be more difficult than anticipated in our previous quarterly report.​ Several desirable features of the tax and labor reforms had to be abandoned or postponed. Instead, the...

Politics: 2018 campaign entering critical phase
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2018

As the three coalitions embark on the final month of the preliminary phase of the presidential race, in which they are using the nomination contests -whose outcomes have been a foregone conclusion for some time- to get their candidates better known and polish their image, they also brace for an e...

Economics: Taking stock and looking ahead
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2018

We look for the Mexican economy to essentially sustain its 2017 pace of growth in the coming year and by sector for services to remain the main motor force. We project the agricultural sector to step up its pace of growth and manufacturing to serve as the strongest contributor to industrial growt...

Erdogan serious about entering Afrin
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jan 2018

President Erdogan proclaimed in the most emphatic tones used heretofore that a military operation could commence to purge Kurdish-held Afrin canton and Manbij district of Syria from terror “any minute”. Indeed, Turkish press reports massive force build-up at the Afrin border, as well as detailed ...

Week of January 15
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2018

President Michel Temer has until Friday (January 19) to answer questions from the Federal Police on supposed irregularities in the drafting of a decree that benefited companies from the ports sector. The impasse regarding the appointment of Rep. Cristiane Brasil to the Ministry of Labor persists ...

Has the bond market arrived?
INDIA · Report · 15 Jan 2018

Bank credit to the private sector has grown slowly with the slow realisation by banks and their regulator that there is a serious banking crisis at hand. A natural channel that may get exploited, with inadequate bank lending, is bond market financing. This is particularly important in the field o...

Monetary and fiscal policy: What corrections are necessary?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jan 2018

​While monetary policy is being rewarded by the sharp fall of inflation and clear anchoring of expectations, allowing the interest rate to be reduced to a level that stimulates economic recovery, the perspectives for fiscal policy are alarming. Granted, advances have been made, such as approval o...

Some things to watch for in 2018: Part Two
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jan 2018 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * For all the discussion about enforcing market discipline by eliminating explicit or implicit government guarantees on local-government and corporate borrowings, any credible reintroduction of credit risk is likely to cause an unacceptably large and ...

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 14 Jan 2018

Micro data about investment is reliable, and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe the Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the quarter. The broad picture of weak nominal investment under implementation remains. Private...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2018

Turkey’s relations with the U.S. took another turn for the worse, as Washington hinted at its intention to help PYD-YPG build a “state” in North-East Syria. President Erdogan threatened military retaliation in “one week”. Syria is also poisoning Turkey’s budding romance with Russia and Iran, as A...

Cyril Ramaphosa launches his ANC Presidency
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Today, the ANC celebrates its 106th years, in its customary "8th of January Statement". The Party was formed on 8th of January 106 years back. Its new president, Cyril Ramaphosa delivered a strong and wide-ranging speech in the presence of the party's newly elected National Executive Committee (N...

CPI-inflation in December: A big drop by the headline rate and a small increase in core rates
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2018

Headline CPI-inflation came out at 0% mom, 2.1% yoy in December, the yoy rate down from 2.5% yoy in the previous month. The actual was just 0.1 percentage point below consensus, which we shared, due to a minor surprise presented by fuel prices, which fell by 1.2% mom at the retail level, despite ...

2017 Results Mixed; 2018 Prospects Good
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Jan 2018

Results for 2017 were mixed. Ukraine’s economy is on the rise, and many positive achievements were reached. But 2018 begins with one awful reality: ongoing attacks against the new anti-corruption agencies have revealed to the world just how reluctant the establishment is to give up its rent-seeki...

Slower growth and fiscal misalignment mark 2017
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 10 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Deceleration of economic activity was the main feature of economic performance in 2017. Despite a robust rebound in November, and possibly in December, hopes that real GDP growth would end at 5% faded. Cumulative growth between January and November was 4.2%, and the expected rate for the year ran...

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