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Continuity ++
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Jan 2018

​His job was going to be “the most important appointment” that President Rodrigo Duterte was going to make.That was what Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez told the President, who was then less than a year in office, about his upcoming choice for the next governor of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipin...

Enjoy it while it lasts
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2018

The politics section of the Monthly advances the hypothesis that markets are underpricing Turkey’s political risk. In our heuristic approach, we assert that conventional measures of country risk, such as CDS spreads or TL option volatility are swamped by exuberant risk appetite, masking the long-...

The “Turkish Trilemma” and the Road to November 2019
TURKEY · Presentation · 26 Jan 2018

* On the global front, we have “growth euphoria”, with “synchronized” growth and “secular stagnation (possibly) morphing into secular expansion”? * But caution is advised -- sharp divergence between geopolitics and markets, long term productivity concerns, etc. Need to be watchful of, among oth...

Turkey Conference Call: Turkey in Syria: Understanding the bigger picture
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2018

Afrin is just the start of Turkey's Syria ordeal. Why is Turkey in Afrin and what are the risks? How does "Operation Olive Branch" increase the potential for a US-Turkey clash, and what are the implications for the markets?

What to expect when you are expecting
CHILE · Report · 26 Jan 2018

Felipe Larraín is the future (and past) finance minister. During his previous term, asset-liability management was driven more by political — and to some extent populist — considerations than by economic rationale. Hopefully Larraín will not do the same thing he did at the beginning of the decade...

The high cost of political survival
PERU · Report · 25 Jan 2018

This administration has been thrust into permanent conflict, as its lack of a significant presence in Congress is forcing it to wrestle with a huge opposition. Though a motion to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski on the grounds of “permanent moral incapacity” failed, due to a fracture withi...

Prime rate up by 1.5 ppt to 16.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018

The Central bank increased prime rate by 1.5 ppt up to 16.0% from Jan 26. It was totally unexpected for the market: consensus was that prime rate will be unchanged. Such sharp increase in prime rate might mean that the Central bank sees inflation speeding up. Provisional estimates of January CPI ...

Once more on the MNB's interest rate swaps
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018

Well, seems one can never be entirely up to date. Just as we were writing our previous note on the new interest rate swaps (MIRS) yesterday, the MNB put out a statement to announce an amendment of the rules. The amendment has to do with the with the sales procedure, and it came despite the fact t...

Brazil Politcs Conference Call: After the appeal - the next steps for Lula and the PT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2018

With former President Lula leading in the polls, the results of his sentence appeal will have strong repercussions on the country's electoral outlook. What choices will he have and how will they impact the country's politics going forward?

Trump-Erdogan phone summit: Lost in translation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces, aided by Free Syrian Army (FSA) brigades are gradually encircling the Kurdish-majority Afrin province of Syria in Northwest. Clashes are getting fierce by the day with casualties mounting on both sides. Afrin invasion is only the beginning of Turkey’s long and arduous adventure in...

Lula convicted by higher court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Jan 2018

The Regional Federal Court of the 4th Region (TRF-4) decided unanimously (3-0) to convict former President Lula of the crimes of passive corruption and money laundering after receiving bribes from the construction company OAS in exchange for Petrobras contracts, sentencing the former president to...

COSTA RICA: February elections are key
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Jan 2018

Costa Ricans will vote on February 4th to elect a new president, two vice presidents and 57 legislators. There are 13 presidential candidates, and the electoral process could last until April 1st, when a runoff between the two top candidates will take place if no one wins least 40% of the vote i...

Bond investors seem to be a bit disappointed
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Bloomberg wrote this morning on the most recent correction that took place on the Hungarian government bond market over the past few days:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-24...In fact, the HUF bond market started this year with a great deal of optimism, with the 5-year government b...

The new cabinet: Piñerismo
CHILE · Report · 23 Jan 2018

In presidential systems, and especially in those with coalition governments, cabinet formation takes on different meanings. People watch for how cabinet posts are distributed among political parties, how close to gender parity the cabinet is, what the ideological leanings of individual ministers ...

The first sign of recovery, in the labor market
INDIA · Report · 23 Jan 2018

Some data about the labor market is now visible through the CMIE Consumer Pyramids household survey data. This shows that the demonetization and GST events made for difficulties from Sep-Dec 2016 to May-Aug 2017. In Sep-Dec 2017, conditions stopped worsening, and by one indicator, have started i...

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