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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Drama in IL&FS and its implications
INDIA · Report · 17 Sep 2018

IL&FS is a financial/infrastructure conglomerate with a consolidated balance sheet of about Rs.1 trillion. Reflecting the difficulties of the economy and the financial system, this firm has been under credit stress for many years. Some of its subsidiaries recently defaulted. This could potentiall...

The disappointing real retail sales and consumption numbers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Sep 2018

One of the hopes for stronger recovery in 2018 was the acceleration of household consumption in 2017. More specifically, the hope was that the combination of lower real interest rates and reduced household debt service ratios would lead to maintenance, or even elevation, of the quarterly growth r...

In stable, but critical condition
TURKEY · Report · 16 Sep 2018

Turkey breathed a sigh of collective relief, as pressure from Turkey and the international community forced Assad to back off from an assault on Idlib City and the CBRT, contrary to consensus, over-delivered. Yet, this is most likely only a brief respite, before even more daunting contests of wil...

Saving and raising
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2018

United Russia predictably won most regional elections in dozens of Russian federal entities due to severely limited competition as most opposition candidates were not given a chance to participate. Despite landslide victories in the largest and most important ones, United Russia supported candida...

Datafolha: Bolsonaro leads; Ciro and Haddad fight for Lula’s supporters
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2018

A new poll released yesterday(September 14) by Datafolha presents important information: * Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is on a trajectory of growth. While he made gains within the margin of error (two percentage points), compared to late August, he gained four points and has practically secured a spot ...

China’s debt-strapped consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2018

Chinese consumption has been a major contributor to China’s GDP, adding an estimated 60% to GDP growth. In addition, the government increasingly has been turning to private capital, including savings from private citizens, to pay for infrastructure and other stimulus projects through bond sales, ...

A new battle cry
PERU · Report · 14 Sep 2018

The short-lived calm after Martín Vizcarra’s assumption of the presidency was shattered by the president’s bold July 28th Independence Day speech, in which he proposed controversial reforms to address the major ongoing judicial scandal. The president’s proposals include change in the political re...

Joy of a Victory: Ukraine Wins London Court Appeal on “Russian Bonds”
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2018

So, London judges finally recognized that politics was important part of a $3 billion deal between ex-president Victor Yanukovitch and Russian authorities. For Ukraine that’s a critical turning point in all disputes about Russian aggression and damages that Russian military intervention created. ...

Replacement of candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2018

Due to the delicate recovery process faced by presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL), Arko Advice has been frequently questioned about the possible consequences of a candidate’s death on the electoral race. Before we provide any answers, we would like to make it clear that we are hoping for ...

MPC: Back from the brink, again…
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Sep 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the policy rate (weekly-repo) by a markedly higher than expected 625 bps to 24% at today’s meeting, from 17.75% earlier. As all funding was being provided at the O/N rate of 19.25%, the move corresponds to a 475 bps hike, de facto, assuming all funding will no...

The European Parliament voted to initiate an Article 7 procedure against Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Sep 2018

For the first time in its history, the European Parliament today voted to call the European Council to start an Article 7 procedure against a member country, and this member happens to be Hungary. As well-known to most readers, the Article 7 procedure is a reconciliation and sanctioning mechanism...

Will RBI defend the rupee?
INDIA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2018

The Indian rupee has depreciated sharply in the first week of September. Since 3rd September 2018 it has been the fastest depreciating currency in Asia.There seem to be three key factors at play. First, EM currencies are under pressure. Second, India is a large oil importer and global oil prices ...

An enormous inflationary shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Sep 2018

The measures announced on 17 August by president Maduro created turmoil, on top of the enactment of monetary reconversion and increases in regulated prices, and contributed to an upsurge in inflation well above the already worrying acceleration we predicted for the month. Its direct impact will b...

IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky
UKRAINE · Report · 11 Sep 2018

The IMF remains the key to many issues in Ukraine. News of the September 6th arrival of its mission signaled that a deal had been reached with Ukrainian authorities. On August 29th, however, the Cabinet extended existing residential gas rates for another month, which confused observers. We remain...

Beto Richa arrest and Palocci revelations hurt the PSDB and the PT
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2018

Two new facts are creating additional wear on the PSDB and PT in the race just as Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) and Fernando Haddad (PT) are in an intense contest with their adversaries to secure a spot in the runoff round. On Tuesday morning, September 11, the former governor of Paraná and candidate fo...

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