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Is Xi Jinping in control of the Chinese economy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Presentation · 20 Feb 2018

Xi Jinping is both Chairman and CEO of China, which has led to ineffective policy making: no one is “driving” supply side reform. But while reform has been limited, there are signs of risk reduction in the financial sector, and local governments are providing some solutions.

China buys the world: The domestic politics of China’s foreign direct investment
CHINA ADVISORY · Presentation · 20 Feb 2018

There is a suspicion that there is a collective brain that directs Chinese companies’ actions, and that recent outbound acquisitions have been directed by pervasive government planning. However, China’s ambitions are complex, and there is no invisible hand. State and market capital will continue ...

Politics: Mobs targeting local politicians
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2018

With roughly four and a half months to go before Election Day 2018, violence against politicians is reaching unprecedented levels; just since September 19 local politicians including current and former municipal presidents, and those looking to run for such offices, have been murdered. The fact t...

Economics: Unpopular reform a major success
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2018

Round 2, Phase 4 of tenders provided the most eloquent example to date of just how successful Mexico's 2014 energy reform is proving to be. The largest single group of exploration and production blocks that Mexican regulators have auctioned to date drew an unprecedented level of participation fro...

President Ramaphosa’s fiscal headache or a chance to start proving himself...?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Feb 2018 · 1 response

New South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has inherited a fiscus that is in a dire state. For instance, National Treasury announced a projected tax revenue to fall short of the 2017 Budget estimate by R50.8 billion (during MTBPS 2017), the largest downward revision since the 2009 recession. Eve...

​Rumors of Kurds ceding Afrin to Assad creates new scenarios for Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Feb 2018

Turkey’s Syria adventure is one of the most complicated stories ever to be told by Yours Truly, wherein the subtext changes daily. I write this note in the hourly hours of Tuesday, 20th of February, when several reports suggest Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG, allied with PKK) and President Assad had reach...

Week of February 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Feb 2018

This week Congress will focus on the Lower House and Senate votes on the federal public security intervention in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Former president Lula should release a Letter to the Brazilian People at a PT event on Monday (19). Tuesday (20) is the last day for his lawyers to prese...

The signals from the Central Bank: What can be expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Feb 2018

In the communiqué of the decision that lowered the SELIC rate to 6.75%, the Central Bank indicated a high probability that the easing cycle was over, but the minutes left the door open to one more cut. More important than discussing whether the cycle will end at 6.75% or 6.5%, however, is recogni...

It will be difficult to stop Fidesz in April
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

In January, Fidesz continued its strengthening trend in opinion polls, returning after three and a half years to the high level of support it enjoyed around the latest local government election in October 2014. Fidesz is quite clearly set now to win a comfortable constitutional majority at the Ap...

U.S. deal hopes, stark IMF warnings
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

The U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson left Turkey with promises of empathy, cooperation and compromise, but cynicism runs high in Ankara. America’s ability to persuade Kurds to withdraw from Syrian city Manbij to the eastern shore of Euphrates Rivers is seen as the litmus test of credibility ...

President Ramaphosa ushers a new era in South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Feb 2018

A few minutes ago,President Ramaphosa delivered his first State of Nation Address (SONA), emphasizing the dawn of a new era, an era of hope and reconstrution. He committed himself and his incoming government to ethical leadership, a departure from his predecessor, and reversion to the type of lea...

A gap between reported and true GDP?
INDIA · Report · 16 Feb 2018

There is a remarkable divergence between reported nominal GDP and a sensible nominal output proxy in the period after the CSO changed the methods for GDP measurement. This has interesting implications for how we think about fiscal economics.

China’s bad debt problem: Underestimated NPLs still a big threat to China’s banking system
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Feb 2018

There have been a number of external estimates of China’s bad loans. The most widely utilized number was provided by the IMF, which analyzed 2,871 companies to estimate what percentage was not generating enough cash to pay interest expense. It arrived at an estimate of 15.5% of total corporate lo...

Federal intervention in Rio de Janeiro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Following reports of escalating violence in Rio de Janeiro, President Michel Temer has decided to decree federal intervention in the public security of the state. President Temer will sign the Intervention Decree in the Public Security of the State of Rio de Janeiro today, February 16, during a c...

Election bulletin: Huck exit benefits Alckmin
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2018

TV Globo personality Luciano Huck (no party) has stated that he will not run for president, putting an end to increased speculation about a possible candidacy. Huck’s exit benefits Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), as it reduces the likelihood that a new candidate without ties to traditional politics will ...

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