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EL SALVADOR: Growth and inflation at status quo
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Sep 2018

El Salvador’s revised short-term economic outlook for 2018-2019 was unsurprising, with only minor changes in key or sensitive macroeconomic indicators. We reaffirm our prediction for real GDP growth of 2.2% y/y in 2018, and 2.4% in 2019. We are also maintaining our inflation forecast, meaning tha...

A further bit of a problem with EU transfers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2018

We have written a lot about the prospective problems with Hungary's access to EU transfers in the next medium-term budget period, i.e. between 2021-2027. However, it seems now that access to part of the country's EUR25bn EU development transfer quota, set for the current seven-year budget period ...

A great leap…in the wrong direction
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Sep 2018

The Maduro regime is trying to find a way to provide minimal standards of living without giving up power or rents. In recent statements and actions, including a grand stabilization plan announced on August 17, Maduro comes off as someone open to pragmatism and responsible public administration to...

Central Bank in coordination with the Treasury
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 25 Sep 2018

While local economic activity is practically on hold today as the government suffers its fourth general strike lead by the labor unions (GCT), and the economic team lead by Dujovne re-negotiates with the IMF the Stand-by agreement, the market received the news that Central Bank President Luis Cap...

Economics: A Look Back at Peña Nieto’s Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2018

As one presidential administration draws to a close and another prepares to take the reins of power, President Enrique Peña Nieto’s sixth and final State of the Nation Report to Congress provides a good starting point from which to assess the main achievements and failures of his six-year term an...

The second round will tend to be close and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2018

The electoral campaign enters its final phase: only two weeks are left before the first round (October 7). Two presidential debates are scheduled, on September 26 and 30. President Michel Temer takes part in the opening ceremony of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. On Friday, September 28, the ...

Politics: Public bullish yet skeptical on AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2018

The results of the most recent quarterly survey on governance in Mexico by GEA-ISA reaffirm the extent to which President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to enjoy considerable social support, and just how optimistic many voters are about how his administration will perform in general....

The CA surplus continues to decline, but FDI remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Sep 2018

The current account surplus continues to decline while net FDI remains robust. Housing completions increased sharply in Q218, supportive of subdued rental prices. Non-housing credit growth is slowing and is likely to restrain household spending. With the shekel strong and the inflationary environ...

The last COPOM meeting before the elections
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Sep 2018

At the last meeting before the elections, the COPOM kept the SELIC rate at 6.5% a year. Although the slow pace of economic recovery is working in favor of price stability, if progress is not made on the agenda for reforms, leading to fiscal consolidation, the risks will grow, weakening the real a...

PM Orbán has just passed an important hurdle in EU politics
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2018

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the catastrophic vote against Hungary in the European Parliament on September 13, which we wrote about in our September report, has also brought about something positive for PM Orbán's government, implying relief in an important question. One scenario after the vote ...

ILFS default and what comes next
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2018

Non Bank Finance Companies (NBFCs) have succeeded in India given the difficulties of banks. They have somewhat bank-like assets with bond market financing. Fixed income mutual funds have become an important method for channeling household and corporate treasury money into the bond market. But the...

Start spreading the news, off to NYC
TURKEY · Report · 23 Sep 2018

The next milestone in Turkey’s journey between salvation and damnation arrives this week, as President Erdogan travels to NYC to meet with investors and most likely to hear from the American administration about the cost of not complying with its requests. Emboldened with a diplomatic victory in ...

Essential CIS Politics: Russia emerges from the difficulties of the past month
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2018

Russia has emerged from the difficulties of the past month. Regional conflicts bubble on, but no major escalation is expected. CIS republics continue to hedge with new patrons – notably China.

President Ramaphosa unveils South Africa’s economic stimulus package
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2018

With SA’s economy in the doldrums, declining for a while, President Cyril Ramaphosa promised the country a stimulus package that would help revive the ailing economy – South Africa is currently in a technical recession as a result of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during H1 2018.

South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite mounting pressures
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Sep 2018

​The SA Reserve Bank has announced that it is keeping the benchmark interest rate, the repo, unchanged at 6.5% - so the prime interest rate stays put at 10%. The Bank has changed the repo rate only once so far in the current year, when it cut the rate by 25 basis points amid the then markedly dec...

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