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Part III: Has the recession ended? Equity market valuation
INDIA · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary Equity market valuation is all about two things: projected earnings growth and the discount rate required by the market. In the past, Indian equities have obtained high valuations on the strength of the high growth rate of earnings. For a long time, there has been a nice set of ...

Euro zone headwinds 2
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jul 2015

Five years ago, tremors from Europe’s troubled periphery countries[1], originating in Greece, rocked global financial markets. While this led to some volatility in local financial markets, the impact was temporary and the magnitude of asset price declines relatively small, reflecting the minimal ...

Economics: Latest Data Bodes Ill for 2H15
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary For some time, information regarding the relative strength of the Mexican economy has been volatile and in some instances points to apparent contradictions. The same can be said of the indicators released to date for the first four months of 2015. A few weeks ago the National St...

Politics: Officials Dither as Crime Rates Grow
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Executive Summary This past Friday, the authorities released their latest monthly report on the number and rates of major crimes (intentional homicide, kidnapping and extortion). The data corresponded to the month of May and revealed some troubling trends. The number and rate of intentional homic...

Rating sovereign credit
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Jul 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The recent turmoil in China’s stock markets have changed the mood among investors who expected, perhaps foolishly, that they would have a chance to get out quickly at the first sign of trouble. It is hard to say what impact this will have on investor psy...

Inflation Accelerates
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Inflation continues accelerating. We forecast the July monthly CPI inflation rate at 13.0 percent, close to our revised June estimate (13.3 percent). The second minimum wage increase of 10 percent decreed by president Maduro in May 2015 enters into effect in July. We forecast that the shortage in...

Part II: Has the recession ended? Balance sheet problems of banks and borrowers
INDIA · Report · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the official GDP numbers are showing an optimistic picture, trusted firm databases suggest that the recession which began in Q1 2012 has not ended. In the second part of our discussion of the recent GDP figures and business cycle conditions, we look at the current balance ...

Fragile Stability
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabiliz...

Electoral Economics
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary While the fiscal imbalance continues to deteriorate, activity indicators have been showing signs of improvement over the last months. Such relatively “benign” economic change ahead of the elections is no coincidence. Contrary to 2014, the Government has not only relaxed its fisc...

Week of June 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Jun 2015

President Dilma Rousseff is in the USA with the goal of attracting investments to the country, especially in the area of infrastructure.The Senate receives the bill on payroll tax exemptions and the provisional measure on the minimum wage.It also discusses the rules requiring Petrobras participat...

The Weakening of the Labor Market According to Three Data Sources
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jun 2015

The result of the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) published last week strengthens the perception that the job market is getting weaker. The PME estimates the figures on employment in the formal and informal sectors in six metropolitan regions, and according to the latest results the 12-month grow...

Government Losing Steam
PERU · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala’s regime is rapidly losing its ability to govern, as his party has lost its plurality in Congress. Many members of the ruling party have defected, and Humala no longer has the congressional support he needs in order to advance major structural reforms. T...

EL SALVADOR: President Earns Low Marks for His First Year
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jun 2015

Executive Summary We give El Salvador’s new presidential administration a low grade for its first year in office. Growth is still sluggish, and other troubles persist, such as uncontrolled public debt. The adverse business climate is reflected in low private investment, driven by the government’s...

Hungary is looking ahead to incalculable Greek events with healthy fundamentals
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jun 2015

Most recent events with regard to Greece have proven to be genuinely incalculable, and so it may continue in the forthcoming days and weeks. As the potential capital market consequences on Europe and perhaps even more on the eastern side of the continent may be significant, it is good to remember...

Weekly Tracker: June 28-July 4
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Heads up!If a large variety of Turkish news sources are to be believed President Erdogan and PM Davutoglu already ordered the military to march into Syria to defend Turkey’s borders. We don’t quite find the news sensible, but remain very alarmed about the prospect of Turkish boo...

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