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SA Minister of Finance vs The President- Week 2
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Aug 2016

During the past week, the SA political economy scene has been the stage for a high level drama, unfolding episode by episode in full view of the nation. The main actor, the Minister of Finance; the script writers, it is believed to be, the President and his men. The goal, it appears, is none othe...

End of the Recession and Outlook for the Current Accounts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Aug 2016

In 2014 the current account deficit reached US$ 104 billion, as of when it has been declining, to US$ 27.9 billion in the 12 months through July 2016. In the past two months, the annualized monthly deficits (seasonally adjusted) have been higher than those over the previous 12 months (Graph 1), i...

Rate stability despite upward growth surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Aug 2016

The rate hold decision was expected but we note that the BOI was surprised by the strong growth in q2 (3.7% Saar). Generally indicators are positive and the labor market robust. Inflation surprised on the upside in July and the the CPI excluding energy and government price cuts is up 0.8% YOY. Ho...

​Q3 off to good start with strong job growth and PC demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Aug 2016

Initial data for July suggests strong growth in Q3. Job creation remains robust, up 0.5% m-o-m.Unemployment points to near-full employment labor market (4% for ages 25-64).PC growth remains strong in July, with chain store sales up.Service exports are accelerating rapidly (21.9% SAAR in Q2).With ...

Still Constructive on Politics
TURKEY · Report · 26 Aug 2016

Turkey’s foray into Jarablus, Syria brings in its wake many unknowns. We treat the risks and returns from a prolonged stay of the Turkish Army in Syria in depth, concluding that it is a very risky gamble that might pay off. Biden’s visit to Turkey was a strong signal that the U.S. is afraid of...

Guatemala: Showdown
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Aug 2016

The next 18 months will be crucial for Guatemala. The country has exited from major crisis mode, but still has not embarked upon an optimistic path. H1 had a “business as usual” feel. The economy grew just above 3.1% y/y in H1, with inflation within the Central Bank’s 3%-5% target range. The f...

Astonishing GDP, employment and CAD figures for H1
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 25 Aug 2016

On Wednesday, the Central Bank reported GDP preliminary figures for H1 2016. Results are, once again, surprising: a 7.4% growth compared to H1 2015. This remarkable expansion of economic activity was mainly driven by an extraordinary expansion of production in Q2, when GDP registered an 8.7% grow...

Why the IMF Raised its Growth Outlook
CHINA · Report · 25 Aug 2016

The IMF in June raised its 2016 growth outlook for China to 6.6%, a 0.1 pp uptick from its April projection, even though Brexit prompted the Fund to slice its global growth forecast for 2016 by 0.1 pp, to 3.1%. The growth upgrade for China shows that the IMF is optimistic about the major refo...

Economics: Public Finance Looking Vulnerable
MEXICO · Report · 25 Aug 2016

Over the course of 2016 the Ministry of Finance has exerted effective controls over public finance. As we analyzed in the June 27 issue of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy, the government decided to lower spending for 2016 by 132.4 billion pesos, with austerity measures including the elimination of ...

Politics: New TRIFE Key to Electoral Legitimacy
MEXICO · Report · 24 Aug 2016

Although Mexico has made great strides in building a democratic electoral system over the past 40 years, problems remain – for example, extensive use of illegal campaign funding, ineffective regulations on media access, widespread vote buying – that undercut the legitimacy of the elections and pr...

The MNB is urging the government to loosen fiscal policy further
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2016

1. Yesterday, the Monetary Council left the base rate and the Bank's O/N rates unchanged at its regular monthly rate-setting meeting, just as expected. This left the forint roughly unchanged around EURHUF 310, or more accurately, the forint even appreciated a little bit.2. In its communiqué, the ...

SA Minister of Finance Under Political Pressure Again
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Aug 2016 · 1 response

Yesterday afternoon, the SA organised crime fighting unit, The Hawks, revived their public pressure on Mr Paravin Gordhan, the SA Minister of Finance. Whatever the legal merit or otherwise of the Hawk's case against Minister Gordhan, the real reason for piling political pressures on him has serio...

“Our boys” are in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2016

According to official Turkish sources, a Turkish Joint Expeditionary Task Force and Coalition air craft has initiated the liberation of ISIS-held Syrian town of Jarablus at 04:00 am Wednesday morning. The objective of the mission is to prevent new flows of migration, deliver aid to civilians, cle...

Increase in TES issuance for 2016
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 23 Aug 2016 · 1 response

A decree was published last Friday, authorizing the Ministry of Finance to increase its TES issuance by COP 8 trillion. The decree mentions that these additional resources are meant to finance outlays for 2016. However this is not the case, as it would imply an increase in the deficit for 2016, w...

MPC: Easing Continues, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2016

​The Monetary Policy Committee cut the O/N lending rate by another 25 bps today to 8.5%, from 8.75% earlier, while the O/N borrowing and weekly-repo rates were kept unchanged, at 7.25% and 7.5%, respectively. The width of the corridor dropped further to 125 bps (its lowest level ever), while the ...

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