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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

2017 budget deficit target appears overly optimistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Sep 2016

2017 revenue target rather challenging The big question lies in next year's budget which is fairly expansionary on the spending side, but aims at maintaining the 2.9% GDP deficit target. Much will depend on the level of economic activity, but without the "one time" factors witnessed this year the...

Week of September 11
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2016

We are now worried about domestic politics not necessarily because there is a witch-hunt or AKP is turning more authoritarian, but because the government might be losing control of the Gulenist purge. The country is becoming more chaotic by the day, with AKP staring down the threat of losing its ...

Growth: Slowing and Still Very Low Quality
TURKEY · Report · 09 Sep 2016

TURKSTAT released the National Income Accounts data for the second quarter of 2016 today. GDP grew by 3.1%, y/y, and slightly lower (3%) in working day-adjusted terms, which was broadly in line with our (somewhat lower than consensus) forecast. The first quarter growth was revised down slightly t...

Fiscal deficit steady at 2.2% GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2016

The fiscal deficit reached 2.6bn ILS in August and 5.2bn since the beginning of the year (compared to 3.4bn this time last year. The rolling 12 month deficit remained at a low level of 2.2% of GDP (similar to last month) . We note that the fiscal deficit is targeted for 2.9% this year, while the ...

Economics: Time to Get the Fiscal House in Order
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2016

For some years now, at least since 2013, we at GEA have established the need to periodically make an adjustment of public finance so as to “accommodate” the foreseeable pressures of public spending both on the level of social expenditures and what is needed to meet the country’s infrastructure ne...

Politics: What was the President thinking?
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2016

Why did President Peña Nieto decide on such a huge and ultimately costly political gamble in hastily rolling out the diplomatic carpet for his high profile meeting with Donald Trump last week? The political blowback has been searing, with an initial opinion survey showing that over 80% of Mexican...

South Africa’s Economy Expands in 2Q 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2016

According to the official gross domestic product (GDP) data released by Statistics South Africa today, the economy expanded by 3.3% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized basis; the highest since the 4.1% recorded in the last quarter of 2014. Today’s higher than expected performan...

GDP recovery in Q2 was driven by net exports, positively for the HUF and inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Sep 2016

This morning, the KSH published its detailed GDP numbers for Q2. According to those, the sharp recovery of GDP (+1% qoq, +1.5% yoy, sda) that followed a rather negative outcome (-0.8% qoq, +0.7% yoy) in Q1 was driven predominantly by a surge of net exports, rather than by domestic adsorption. In ...

Saber Rattling and Political Conflict
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Sep 2016

August was a turbulent month. First came the disturbing news of Russia’s buildup of military forces on the borders of mainland Ukraine. The Kremlin also officially blamed the Ukrainian military for organizing a terrorist attack in Crimea, which added to the frayed nerves of the international co...

​State of national emergency
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2016

Malacanang today issued Proclamation 55, two days after President Rodrigo Durterte declared a state of national emergency. The Proclamation commanded the Armed Forces of the Philippines, together with the Philippine National Police, “to undertake such measures as may be permitted by the Constitut...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2016

Now that the long impeachment process is over, it is beholden to President Michel Temer, freed from the constraints of interim status, to fulfill the promises made to those who supported him during that process and to burnish his biography as the person responsible for defining a new political cy...

Week of September 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2016

The September 7 holiday means reduced political activity in Brasília. The Senate will try to vote on two important provisional measures of interest to the government. The STF will analyze another appeal by Rep. Eduardo Cunha, who hopes to avoid disbarment. In the economy, we highlight the minutes...

The Start of Monetary Easing is Approaching
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Sep 2016

The communiqué from the last COPOM meeting left the door – formerly shut – ajar to starting a monetary easing cycle. The committee conditioned that decision on: a) limited persistence of the food price shock (read “lower food prices”); b) deceleration of the components of the IPCA more sensitive ...

Inflation: Another Cut Now Very Likely
TURKEY · Report · 05 Sep 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised somewhat on the downside in August, dropping by 0.3%, thanks to a sharper than expected fall in food prices. The 12-month rate hence declined to 8.0%, from 8.8% in July. Producer prices rose modestly by 0.1% (August 2015: 1.0%), which helped to reduce the 12-mon...

BOI likely to revise growth forecast upwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Sep 2016

Highlights:Rate stability for September came as no surprise but BOI tone more hawkish.The monetary statement noted upward growth surprise in Q2.Labor market approaching full employment.Risk to achieving growth target no longer significant.Yet, forward guidance maintained with accommodative policy...

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