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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African Reserve Bank Continues its Rate Hike Pause
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2016 · 1 response

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has once again decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 7%. This marks the third consecutive time that the SARB did not change the repo rate since increasing it during the MPC’s March 2016 meeting. The prime lending rate has also ef...

Economics: Risk Sources Cloud Fiscal Outlook
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2016

Mexico’s Ministry of Finance submitted its 2017 Economic Package to the Mexican Congress on September 8. The package includes the proposed Federal Revenue Budget, the General Economic Policy Criteria and the draft of the Federal Spending Budget. The various components of the 2017 package po...

Politics: Budget Bodes Ill for Public Security
MEXICO · Report · 22 Sep 2016

A good way to determine a government’s priorities is to see how it spends public resources; judging by the budgets and spending of the current administration public security does not appear to be one. The current presidential administration has from day one lacked a clear policy on security quest...

MPC: Easing Continues, More to Come
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2016

​As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the O/N lending rate by another 25 bps today to 8.25%, while the O/N borrowing and weekly rates were unchanged, at 7.25% and 7.5%, respectively. The width of the corridor has hence dropped further to 100 bps, while the spread between the O/N lending...

MNB cut access to 3-month deposits in line with expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2016

Arguably, the MNB's decision of yesterday, to leave its interest rates unchanged and to reduce the stock of monetary sterilization through 3-month deposits to HUF 900bn by end-2016 was much less sensational than S&P's decision to upgrade Hungary last week. This is no criticism, of course, as cent...

Week of September 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2016

President Michel Temer makes an official visit to the US to participate in the 71st UN General Assembly. He will also meet with investors to try to attract investment in Brazil. Congress will try to conclude the vote on the LDO (Budget Guidelines Law), which establishes a R$ 139 billion deficit f...

The Indications from the Financial Stability Report
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Sep 2016

​There are various signs that economic activity has bottomed out between the second and third quarters, but there are no signs that recovery will be brisk. The Central Bank’s Financial Stability Report for the first half of the year offers new evidence that the rebound will be slow. Households an...

The best of all worlds: strong growth and low inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Sep 2016

Recent economic indicators have surprised on the upside Q216 growth was revised to 4.0% SAAR (from 3.7%).PMI up 6.9 points in August on strong export orders.Job vacancies/labor market reached 4.1%, up from 3.3% one year ago.Strong growth in Q316 likely to be maintained. Israel's strong external p...

Week of September 18
TURKEY · Report · 18 Sep 2016 · 1 response

It is astonishing that what we, Turks, hold to be a universal truth, namely that Gulen organized the 15th of July coup, is not shared by the rest of the world. Moreover, world media has already passed its verdict. Erdogan is exploiting the putsch attempt to build his authoritarian state. As much ...

On the Brink of a New Era
COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Sep 2016

Since the government struck a provisional peace deal with the FARC on August 24th, Colombians have talked of little else. The deal is to be submitted to a public referendum in October 2nd. Most of Colombia’s political parties are backing the “YES” campaign -- though former president Andres Pastra...

The Economy is Numb
CHILE · Report · 16 Sep 2016

In its latest Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank confirmed its neutral stance on monetary policy. The Central Bank also reaffirmed that the main channel of transmission of monetary policy is the exchange rate. Apparently, the Board believes that at 670 the peso is slightly overvalued. Bank ...

S&P upgraded Hungary to BBB-/Stable: Surprise, surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Sep 2016

Well, so much about predicting rating agencies. This morning we sent out our September monthly, in which we expected no upgrade at all today, though attributing a 30% probability to a potential change in S&P's outlook on its previous BB+/Stable to positive. Yet the agency changed its LT/FX sovere...

Time to Vote Again on October 2
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Sep 2016

The sharp recovery of GDP in Q2 stemmed mainly from a pick-up of net exports, due to a bounce-back in manufacturing and to decelerating import growth as fixed investment fell. On the whole, domestic adsorption decreased on qoq basis. Consumption growth continued to be robust, but it showed no par...

BOI unlikely to shift out of neutral mode despite low inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2016

Following several months of gradually increasing inflation from -0.9% y-o-y in April to -0.6% in July, August witnessed a reversal to -0.7% y-o-y. The main reason was a moderation in housing prices to 1.9% y-o-y to 2.2% y-o-y. The CPI excluding all energy items turned negative to -0.1% y-o-y from...

Chinese Debt Management
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Sep 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: * There is a temptation for policy advisors to propose specific solution to problems only after they have been abstracted from their systemic contexts. In an economy with deep imbalances and strong institutional constraints, however, this can easily bac...

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