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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Urgent: Improve Migration Policy
HUNGARY · Report · 14 Sep 2015

The influx of Middle Eastern refugees is placing rising pressure on Hungary, and is becoming the country’s top political issue. The government has two options, neither of them favorable for Fidesz or for Hungary. The country could either defy the EU, blocking the entry of new migrants and allowin...

Weekly Tracker: September 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Sep 2015

After devastating PKK attacks on Turkish security forces, Turkey experienced near-riots in the West, which may get worse if a cease-fire is not declared. This is not a likely scenario, but Ankara doesn’t have a viable strategy to combat terror, either. But we remain optimistic for a lasting solut...

Inflection points
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Sep 2015

We extend our forecast horizon to 2017. We envision a short-term policy path that’s unsustainable. Hence dramatic forks (“inflection points”) lie somewhere in the road ahead, at which regime change, major policy reform, and default on the sovereign debt become real possibilities. When Venezuela w...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The government reacted with dissonance to the news of Standard & Poor’s downgrade of Brazil’s investment grade rating. The Ministry of Finance lamented the rating agency’s decision and is trying to find alternatives to counteract the negative impact of the announcement. In an interview with TV...

Economics: A Pass-through Effect to Come
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The increase in producer prices as tracked by Mexico’s national Producer Price Index (PPI) suggests that the higher costs will eventually translate into a higher rate of consumer inflation. We should note the need to analyze the rise in producer prices from various angles. One of these is rela...

Politics: Government Re-launch Fails to Lift Off
MEXICO · Report · 10 Sep 2015

Hopes that this year’s State of the Nation Report and President Enrique Peña Nieto’s accompanying nationwide address might signal a major change of approach and policies were dashed last week as seemingly self-critical introductory remarks quickly gave way to self-serving and questionable claims ...

On Q2 Growth: “Damn the Torpedoes…”
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2015

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 3.8% in Q2, y/y, thanks to a sharp increase in domestic demand (6.8%, y/y), which made a 6.7 pps contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. The contributions of net exports and inventories were negative, broadly in line with expectations, shaving ...

Industrial Production and Weakening of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2015

The steep drop of industrial output in July (Graph 1) threw another bucket of cold water on the estimate of GDP for the third quarter, which will almost certainly show further contraction. On the demand side, neither household consumption nor gross fixed capital formation changes this scenario. T...

Week of September 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2015

Despite the holiday, this will be a busy week. Vice President Temer and PMDB leaders meet with governors to discuss the financial situation of the states. Congress analyzes the presidential vetoes. The Senate may vote on the repatriation bill. The Sugar-Alcohol sector discusses CIDE with governme...

Guatemala: High turnout but heading for a runoff
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Sep 2015

There was a high turnout in yesterday´s general elections. According to preliminary results, the turnout was slightly above 70% of registered voters, a figure relatively high given the political situation of the last five months, which clouded the electoral campaign, and also the call for "no vot...

Stalking Elusive Recovery
PERU · Forecast · 07 Sep 2015

In our scenario, business confidence will strengthen only a bit in coming months, then rally after the April 2016 general elections. We believe the next government will pursue market-friendly policies, and build alliances in Congress geared to passing urgent structural reforms. That would also pa...

Continued Struggles on Old Fronts
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 07 Sep 2015

Russia’s security challenges in the North Caucasus region continue as the federal law enforcement and local elites dispute control over the situation. In some republics, the federal center has more power while in others it is forced to rely entirely on the local leadership. However, in both cases...

Christine Lagarde impressed with Ukraine’s progress.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Sep 2015

On September 6 Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, visited Kyiv. During this visit she expressed her optimism about observed results. “I am extremely encouraged by the progress that has been achieved in the past few months” said Ms. Lagarde. “In a difficult environment, macroecon...

Weekly Tracker: September 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2015

On the day of the publication of our monthly report last Tuesday, the police raided the headquarters of pro-Gulen KOZA-IPEK Holding on charges of money-laundering. We remain concerned that a new crackdown may be in progress, which may spill over to KOZA-IPEK’s media arm, and other dissident press...

Guatemala: President Pérez resigns
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 03 Sep 2015

After all doors closed, President Otto Pérez Molina today submitted his resignation to Congress.On Tuesday, September 1, Congress stripped Pérez's immunity by an almost unanimous decision (125 votes in favor), including several congressmen from his own party. On Wednesday, September 2, the Consti...

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