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Weekly Tracker: October 16-22
TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2016

Turkey’s Executive Presidency saga resurfaced once again, as MHP leader Bahceli invited AKP to submit its constitutional proposal to parliament. AKP is expected to comply with the request, but it is still not certain whether the article will garner enough support -- of 330 votes -- for a referend...

Re-Elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2016

The United Russia party won an unprecedented 343 out of 450 seats in the lower chamber of the Russian parliament. More than two hundred of those seats were secured according to the first-past-the-post system. Other parties represented in parliament saw their number of seats cut by 2-4 times. Unpr...

Inflation creeps higher to -0.4% y/y
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Oct 2016

Inflation in September increased to -0.4% y/y from -0.7% last month. This CPI print was in line with consensus, following a downward surprise last month. Inflation excluding energy moved lower to -0.3% y/y in September from -0.1% in August. Housing prices remains the main culprit impacting inflat...

Economics: Shallow Budget Cuts in Jeopardy
MEXICO · Report · 13 Oct 2016

The proposed spending budget for the Mexican federal government in 2017 reduces programmable spending by 228 billion pesos compared to the approved budget for 2016, which would bring this spending category to about the same level as what was authorized and spent in 2012, in constant peso terms, a...

Politics: Security Continues to Erode
MEXICO · Report · 13 Oct 2016

Insecurity and violence have returned to the center of public debate in Mexico, as recently the news and social media have focused on several high profile crimes. Even though such incidents have been a constant occurrence for years, none had become a central political issue except for the events...

SA Minister of Finance vs President Zuma: The Final Act Approaching
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The SA political economy stage has become noisier, busier and more confusing over the past 24 hours. Generally speaking, the country’s governance dynamics has become akin to a complex plot of modern day movie, with a mix of suspense, thrill, drama, law, and political skull-doggery, playing out in...

​ATTENTION: Turkey could be heading to a presidential referendum
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Oct 2016

On Tuesday, the leader of the nationalist opposition party (MHP) Mr. Bahceli bashed President Erdogan for overstepping his authority, a case which became extremely acute after the aborted coup attempt. He invited him to step back, or instruct AKP to amend the constitution to transition Turkey to ...

Government shows strength and approves Federal Spending Amendment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Oct 2016

​The government obtained an important victory in the House of Representatives in guaranteeing first-round approval of the constitutional amendment that limits federal spending. The score was 366 votes in favor, 111 against and two abstentions.

Minister of Finance Under Attack Again: Can it be the President's Last Attempt?
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2016

Hot on the heel of President Zuma's potential reinstatement of 837 cases of fraud, corruption and racketeering, together with Public Protector's statement that she is going to go public about the case of State Capture (with President Zuma as the key role player) on Friday this week, the National ...

Week of October 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016

The fiscal austerity effort will see its first big test in the House this week. There are some obstacles: dissatisfaction within the governing coalition, obstruction from the opposition and the Wednesday holiday. Nevertheless, the main text should be approved. President Michel Temer presents Soci...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The result of the municipal elections (mayors and council members) on October 2nd unquestionably defined a new outline of the political scenario in Brazil. If any doubts remained about the end of the PT’s cycle in power, the vote tallies laid them to rest. The economic recovery has been much s...

Caution About the Start of Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Oct 2016

The most recent economic activity indicators were disappointing and make it probable that GDP will contract further in the third quarter this year. Apparently the recession will be a bit longer than was expected a few weeks ago, and the latest numbers strengthen the forecast that the monetary eas...

Another unusually big fiscal cash surplus in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2016

The NGM has just reported a HUF 272 billion (9.4% of GDP) central government cash surplus for September. This reduced the cumulative Q1-Q3 deficit to just HUF 2 billion, meaning that on cash basis, the central government budget fully balanced over this period. The cumulative deficit fell from 3.8...

In Uncharted Waters
TURKEY · Report · 09 Oct 2016

We concede that AKP’s Gulenist purge is mutating into an all-out crackdown on dissent, with Alevites and Kurds also coming down under the hammer.The purge is unlikely to end in the next three months, with the number of affected at least doubling from the current headlines. The magnitude of the st...

PC growth slows but business sentiment improves
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2016

Several indicators are pointing to slower PC demand. This follows rapid growth of 10% SAAR in Q2. Slower growth in June-Aug is apparent in chain store sales, retail trade, consumer imports and debit card purchases. The Poalim consumer confidence index declined 3.1 points in September but remains ...

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