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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

El Salvador: Fiscal Showdown
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2016

Intense political negotiations over fiscal issues are underway in El Salvador. Many analysts (us included) have anticipated a payment crisis for several months, as the opposition ARENA has refused back new borrowing. The party conditions its congressional support upon reaching consensus on a fisc...

Economics: Mexico Shares Some China Woes
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2016

One of the risk factors that endures as a threat to the performance of the Mexican economy over the medium term is the health of the Chinese economy, especially its financial markets. Concern has mounted in the past few months in response to official data pointing to a slowing of economic activit...

Politics: Graft, A Many Ringed Circus
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2016

Federal officials have begun in recent days to respond to years of complaints regarding widespread corruption at the state level by issuing arrest warrants for two out of at least six high profile cases of gubernatorial malfeasance. It has yet to been seen just how seriously those and other cases...

President Bachelet appointed Mario Marcel as President of the Central Bank
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2016

As expected, President Bachelet appointed the Board Member Mario Marcel as President of the Central Bank. This will become effective in December, when Rodrigo Vergara leaves his current position.

​The consequences of the municipal elections in Chile.
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2016

Municipal elections were held across Chile on Sunday, and the results were a surprise to Chile’s political class – even the winners. For the most part, it was a good day for the opposition, which won more votes, more mayors and more council members nationwide. Chile Vamos won 38.4% of the popular...

Improved Expectations, With A Growth Challenge Ahead
PERU · Forecast · 26 Oct 2016

We continue to envisage a relatively optimistic scenario for the Peruvian economy, though certainly less optimistic than the authorities do. GDP grew by a stronger 4.2% y/y in the first eight months of 2016, due to an 9.5% expansion of primary sector activity, driven by the production ramp-up of ...

The MNB announced two additional steps to loosen monetary conditions today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2016

Apparently, the MNB is not satisfied with its previously announced policy of reducing the stock of bank placements into its 3-month deposit facility to HUF900bn by year end, marking a HUF1076bn decrease from the level recorded on September 21, the day immediately before that announcement. Today, ...

Settle in for a Long Wait
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 25 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The government’s new tax reform plan is crucial for restoring fiscal health, and preserving Colombia’s investment grade. We expect it to be approved in a watered-down, though still decent, form by December, as the political scenario for its passage is far from ideal. That should be enough to make...

Turning point
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2016

The focus of political conflict is no longer the recall referendum. It has turned to constitutionality and legality of Maduro’s government.

Week of October 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2016

A week full of important events ahead: The House may conclude the second round vote on the Federal Spending Amendment. The Accounts Court of the Union (TCU) rules on whether the BNDES must return R$ 100 billion to the Treasury. In the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the trial on retirements could ha...

What Will be the Size of the Easing Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2016

Various controversies exist in the financial market regarding the execution of monetary policy. One of them refers to the size of the total cut in the interest rate. Another involves the pace of the initial movements by the Central Bank. The past few days have been marked by critiques by those wh...

Frustration over Economic Activity and the Reaction of Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2016

Last week a large number of indicators were disclosed strengthening the expectation of further contraction of GDP in the third quarter. If this is confirmed – and the probability is high – Brazilian society will be “rewarded” with the worst recession since CODACE (Committee for Dating Economic Cy...

Elections Offer Turning Point Opportunity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Ecuadorians know that the 2017 electoral stakes are high: their choices could define the continuation or the end of a political and economic model that has lasted for 10 years, supported by many, but hated by many, too. The departure of a charismatic leader, the economic crisis and the vulnerabil...

Week of October 23
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Turkey’s political uncertainties proliferated with daunting speed since the beginning of October, some of which are not yet fully grasped by the international investment community. We now believe a presidential referendum commands 75% odds, though timing is uncertain. Polls show Erdogan’s support...

​Oops!... He did it again
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Oct 2016

Last month, when President Rodrigo Duterte said he was cancelling military exercises and other cooperation with the U.S., the general reaction even from inside government was, he couldn’t possibly have said that or even if he did, it couldn’t possibly be what it sounded like. But he did say it. A...

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