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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No clear and present danger
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Aug 2017

We will start our official coverage next week, but seeing how EM currencies became suddenly popular once again after Yellen and Draghi speeches at Jackson Hole, I felt it was incumbent upon me to give a run-down on political risks to determine whether they could derail the TL rally. The brief ans...

The MNB turned the strengthening forint back from EURHUF 302 this morning
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2017

Well, we told you so. We have warned our readers repeatedly in recent reports that:- given the industrial recovery in the Euro Area and improving producer prices paid to domestic manufacturers, the MNB was likely to welcome some forint appreciation from the previous EURHUF 310-315 levels;- but an...

Getting to know you?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Aug 2017

Over the course of 10 trading days in recent weeks, the peso lost P1.30 against the US dollar depreciating from P50.19/$ to P51.49/$ on August 22, its weakest so far. Analysts have been scratching their heads not so much over the direction of movement (which most had expected in light of weaker e...

Week of August 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2017

The government must send Congress the announced fiscal adjustment proposals. The government must also present party leaders with the new text for the Refis provisional measure (MP 783/17). In the Lower House, the priority is the vote on Political Reform. Rep. Luiz Carlos Hauly (PSDB-PR) will pres...

Fundamentals vs. Rabbits
TURKEY · Forecast · 21 Aug 2017

A benign global backdrop and massive stimulus measures will produce another year of strong growth, it looks like, but this doesn’t change the discomforting fact that Turkish economy continues to live on borrowed time. Secular growth outlook remains cloudy, while the usual imbalances – a hefty cur...

The Return of Growth, But Slow
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Aug 2017

The economic activity numbers for June drastically reduce the possibility of contraction of GDP in the second quarter. The shining light was the performance of retail sales, leading to an estimate of strong growth of household consumption in the three months through June. Thus, although doubts pe...

Economics: New Wage Dynamics and Inflation
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2017

The disproportionate rise in formal sector employment since 2013 that has served as one of the main drivers of the internal market has not been matched by a similar rise in payroll compensation, which when deflated has registered a mere annual 0.5% increase since 2013. It fell 0.9% during the fir...

Politics: PRI Doubles Down on Old Strategy
MEXICO · Report · 21 Aug 2017

Heading into the PRI’s national assembly observers were especially anxious to see whether the party might resist any bending of rules to pave the way for an historically unpopular president to hand pick his choice of successor, or decide to offer something of substance in its vision for Mexico in...

Bracing for an Anemic 2017
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Aug 2017 · 1 response

Growth projections of above 2% for 2017 now look rather remote, given Q2 results. Economic activity expanded by just 1.3%, similar to in Q1. H2 growth would have to top 3% for GDP to grow by the 2% the government forecasts, which now seems unlikely. This will probably lead to renewed congressiona...

The General Government Reached a Surplus in H1 2017
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Aug 2017

Robust economic growth continued in Q2, with GDP growth just marginally weaker than in Q1. The leading source of strength remains an uninterrupted recovery of manufacturing and construction output. In addition, retail trade is slowly gaining momentum again, and tourist services are picking up at ...

Bond Default Recaps: Recapitalization Patterns
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Aug 2017

As the economy slows and bad debt increases, the outcome of the current round of defaults, along with related programs like the debt-for-equity swaps, tell us a lot about what China will do and not just what it says it will do. We believe this initial pool of defaults provides a clue to how the s...

2Q17 GDP growth: As expected
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Aug 2017

Government announced today that the domestic economy grew 6.5% in 2Q17, behind China’s 6.9% growth clip but ahead of Vietnam’s (6.2%) and Indonesia’s (5%). As forecasted in our past quarterly reports, private consumption and investments continued to slow but growth rates were generally solid, wit...

Q2 GDP data shows continued robust growth, with some confusion caused among analysts
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Aug 2017

Real GDP growth for Q2 was reported at 3.6% yoy on sda basis, just slightly down from 3.8% in Q1, this morning. This was above the otherwise nicely accelerating 2.2% yoy growth recorded in the Euro Area, but lower than the yoy growth figures reported for most of those other EU members in the CEE ...

Fiscal policy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Aug 2017

The government announced on August 15 the new fiscal targets for 2017 (from a deficit of R$ 139 billion to R$ 159 billion) and 2018 (from R$ 129 billion to R$ 159 billion), in addition to measures that aim to reduce spending, including the postponement (for one year) of salary increases for civil...

Same Old Same Old
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 15 Aug 2017

The President’s second State of the Nation Address (SONA) in July suggests that year 2 of the Duterte Administration will be much like year 1. Our central growth scenario of 6.5% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018 is unchanged from our last report, although we now expect greater contribution from exports ...

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