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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Erdogan speech underwhelms, hopes rest on road map
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 May 2017

As I expected, Erdogan’s long-winded acceptance speech after his election to AKP chairmanship was frustratingly vague on promises of reform and restoration of democracy. Erdogan will now focus on overhauling his party, the local administrations and the bureaucracy to create a seamless machine to ...

Week of May 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 May 2017

The political crisis continues. Brazil’s Bar Association presented a new impeachment request against President Michel Temer, for a total of eight. The opposition is pressuring Rep. Rodrigo Maia to make a decision regarding these requests. On Wednesday, the STF will decide whether to suspend the i...

Short Term Consequences of the Political Crisis
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2017

Last week started with an increase of optimism. The probability of approval of the social security reform looked better and asset prices began a new round of appreciation. These factors, together with the weak economic activity and falling inflation, led to stronger bets on a steeper decline of t...

Starting Off Slow
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 May 2017

This year is off to a weak start in terms of economic activity. GDP expanded by a modest 1.1% in Q1, the lowest since 2009, indicating that the Government’s forecasts of 2% growth for 2017 might be too optimistic. Economic activity seems a lot weaker than what both the markets and the Government ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 21 May 2017

The politics section has been penned before AKP’s Extraordinary Convention where President Erdogan was expected to make a major policy speech. The first essay is dedicated to explaining why it is hard to take promises of a more liberal order or more democracy seriously. Erdogan’s primary objectiv...

After Me, Comes the Flood
ECUADOR · Report · 19 May 2017 · 2 responses

In the past days the Assembly by mandate of President Correa cancelled all bilateral investment agreements with around 15 countries included China and the United States. The argument behind is that those agreements have brought more harm than benefits to Ecuador because of the biased ruling of i...

Possible Scenarios for the Political Crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2017 · 2 responses

Given the gravity of the political crisis, the Temer administration is in dire straits. The country has been completely submerged in uncertainty, much greater than when the former president of the Lower House, Eduardo Cunha, decided to authorize the impeachment process against President Dilma Rou...

Economics: Energy Reform’s Stubborn Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2017

Three years since the energy reform was signed into law positive results have been recorded but there remains much work to be done in strengthening state-owned companies. One of the most successful aspects of the energy reform has been the enthusiasm with which investors have responded to the bi...

Temer at risk following news of audio recording
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 May 2017

According to journalist Lauro Jardim, from O Globo newspaper, the owners of JBS stated in their plea bargain deal to the General Prosecutor of the Republic (PGR) that they recorded Michel Temer authorizing the purchase of the silence of the disbarred former president of the Lower House, Eduardo C...

1Q17 GDP at 6.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 May 2017

The headline GDP growth rate itself was unsurprising as far as we are concerned. We already noted in our just released Quarterly Report (“Settling In”) how early indicators pointed to a slower growth rate vs. 1Q16.Markets, on the other hand, were disappointed having expected a number closer to 7%...

Really bad news from the European Parliament to PM Viktor Orbán
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 May 2017

Today, the European Parliament voted by 393 votes against 221 with 64 abstentions that in Hungary, there is a serious deterioration in the rule of law and democracy. The resolution calls for:- the launching of Article 7(1) of the Lisbon Treaty. MEPs instruct the Committee on Civil Liberties, Just...

Prime-minister Groysman presents pension reform, still to be approved by the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 May 2017

Today Prime-minister Volodymyr Groysman finally presented to public his proposal on pension reform. He suggested increasing years of service (before being vested in a pension) up to 25 years from 15 years previously (35 years by 2028). At the same time, retirement age was left unchanged at 60 yea...

Politics: The Emerging Face of Organized Crime
MEXICO · Report · 16 May 2017

The attack on an Army unit last week in the town of Palmarito Tochapan in which four soldiers and four civilians were killed during the confrontation, is just the latest incident in a long but accelerating history of fuel theft and smuggling nationwide, and a problem that exemplifies the ways in ...

Q1 GDP: Nicely robust, but no great surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 May 2017

Q1 GDP, preliminary, came out at +1.3% qoq, +3.7% yoy on sda basis this morning, without any sectorial details being reported for the time being. CEE economies typically did well on the same indicator, as reported by the Eurostat also today: Romania +5.6%, Poland +4.1%, Slovakia +3.1%, Czech Repu...

Reasons for Hope
CHILE · Presentation · 16 May 2017

The long-expected recovery has not yet arrived. The government’s reform agenda has impacted confidence, and the positive investment cycle ended with the decline in the price of copper. However, the economy seems to be coming out a double dip, with agriculture and services the champions. Given tha...

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