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Unprecedented fiscal data: a general government surplus in Q1-Q3 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jan 2017

Well, it is perhaps no great surprise any more, given the release of a very strong net financing capacity number about a month ago. Yet, it is history because it is unprecedented. The government's ESA2010 balance, the main indicator watched by the EU and everyone else, was a surplus equivalent to...

The $5 billion surprise
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

On 29 December 2016, Venezuela issued a $5 billion bond due in 2036, with a 6.5 percent coupon, after five years without dollar-denominated issues. The manager is Haitong International Securities / Haitong Bank, S.A., based in Hong Kong. The legal framework for this bond is the 2016 Indebtedness ...

Good-Bye High Growth/High Inflation, Hello Stagflation
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2017

Consumer prices rose by a much higher-than-expected 1.6% in December, with the 12-month rate ending the year at 8.5%, up from 7% in November, markedly worse than both the Bank’s 7.5% estimate, and our somewhat higher forecast. The jump in food prices is partly to blame, but increase is broad-base...

​Turkey starts New Year with old nightmare
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2017

Violence cast a dark shadow on New Year’s Eve in Turkey as a lone gunman killed 39 and wounded 65 in the famous night club Reina of Istanbul. The assailant is still at large and believed to be affiliated with ISIS. The assault is a serious economic and sociological blow to Turkey. The first half ...

Recovering from Privatbank’s Nationalization
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Dec 2016

The recent nationalization of Privatbank, Ukraine’s largest private bank, has significantly changed the national economic climate. Everything proceeded as smoothly as could be expected, despite fears of potential panic at the FX market. The Ukrainian economy will never be quite the same. Firs...

The Year of Living Dangerously: Slower growth, higher unemployment…and Odebrecht
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2016

Real GDP growth fell to 4.8% y/y in Q3 compared to its reported 5.2% growth during the previous quarter. We expect 2016 y/y GDP growth rate to be around 5% based on results up to Q3 (4.9%). We see no reason for a rebound in Q4, and indicators continue to suggest a growth rate below the 6% estimat...

Two Holiday Gifts
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Dec 2016 · 1 response

Santa brought Argentina two Christmas gifts: a promising reduction in the monthly inflation rate, and an impressive outcome for its tax amnesty plan. The fall in monthly inflation will permit two policies that may favor economic activity recovery, and provide fiscal support to the Central Bank...

​3 wishes for the economy in 2017
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Dec 2016

1. Before the cock crows on January 28 to usher in the Year of the Rooster, the Finance Department's tax reform package would have been sponsored by the Ways and Means Committee Chairman in the House of Representatives where tax bills are supposed to originate. This would send a strong signal tha...

More Questions than Answers
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Dec 2016 · 1 response

The end of 2016 is characterized by uncertainty over the future. In politics, 2017 will be dominated by questions of presidential succession, and what kind of government Colombia’s next leader will run, after taking office in August 2018. We find the latter question the most intriguing and impor...

Ending 2016 With Greater Hope
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Dec 2016

This report marks the final 2016 report on the Indonesian economy. At the beginning of the year, hope abounded that the Indonesian economy would be greatly supported by government infrastructure spending. Indonesian corporations and businesses were also relatively optimistic, as measured by the B...

COSTA RICA: The Central Bank announced its Macroeconomic Program 2017-2018
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Dec 2016

Just before Christmas, the Costa Rican Central Bank announced its Macroeconomic Program for 2017-2018. There are no major changes in its policy framework: The Bank´s monetary policy will continue to pursue an Inflation target of 3.0% ± 1.0 p.p., using the policy rate as its main instrument. T...

Voters Taking a Wait-and-See Stance
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Dec 2016

Ecuador is experiencing a revolting yearend, due to several corruption scandals linked to government officials, and to severe social disruption over mining issues in the large Morona Santiago province. The web of corruption discovered in Petroecuador has reached its highest officials, has impl...

Much of fiscal window-dressing is going on around year end
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Dec 2016

The Economy Ministry have announced that they expect a HUF991bn (2.8% of GDP) cash deficit for the general government in full-year 2016, which they expect to translate into an ESA2010 deficit of 2.1-2.3% of GDP, up from 1.6% of GDP in 2015. In addition, the ÁKK have just said that the government'...

Looking Back and Ahead of 2017, while Mexicans Brace for Trump
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2016

Official economic indicators released during the month of December reaffirmed the role that domestic consumption has been playing throughout the past year. A case in point was the report on private consumption for September showing a 12 month rate of growth of 3.6% that marked an improvement over...

Fiscal accounts off target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 26 Dec 2016

GDP is likely to close 2016 with a 6.7% increase with respect to 2015. From January thru September, GDP growth reached a remarkable 6.9%. We estimate that in Q4 it will clinch at 6.5%. Inflation remains very low and the annual rate is likely to close below a third of the lower range of the tar...

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