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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Alea iacta est
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Dec 2015

In this report, we are going to revise some of the political and economic challenges that Macri will face, in order to better understand the announcements he is expected to make soon after swearing in. Those challenges include the lax monetary policy fueled not only by the monetization of the ...

Picciani’s exit increases distance between the PMDB and the government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2015

The removal of Leonardo Picciani from the leadership of the PMDB in the House is another important chapter in the distancing of the PMDB from the government. This is the party’s second move against the Planalto Palace in the last 24 hours. The party is still divided on the issue of the impeachmen...

Government defeated in the first battle of the impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2015

The government was defeated in the first battle of the impeachment. With 272 votes in favor and 199 against, the Floor of the House of Representatives approved an alternate composition of the Special Committee to review the impeachment, proposed by dissidents of the allied base and by members of ...

Inflation moved up from near-zero in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2015

The two years long era of zero (or negative) inflation may have been finally over in November, as the yoy rate of CPI-inflation jumped to 0.5% from 0.1% in October and a below-zero level previously. This was one decimal point lower than market (and our) expectation, so essentially no surprise at ...

Reversal in Current Account Deficit Contraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Dec 2015

Figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on the balance of payments today show that the current account deteriorated in the third quarter of 2015, thereby reversing an improvement that had been taking place since the third quarter of 2014. The deficit on the current account balan...

China’s rebalancing timetable
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Dec 2015

Last week’s announcement by the IMF – that the RMB would join the four currencies that comprise the SDR – set off yet a new round of speculation about the future value of the RMB. On balance and over the medium term there are stronger economic reasons to keep the RMB steady than to devalue th...

Slow Reform Sows Discontent
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Dec 2015

There’s been a disturbing level of discontent over the progress of reforms.We at first thought this was linked to demands for populist solutions. But local elections show that this is not so: Ukrainians are irritated that new elites are returning to their traditional corrupt ways of “doing busine...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Dec 2015

The recession, which deepened further in the third quarter, should continue in the last three months of the year, bringing the GDP contraction for 2015 to 4%. Given political uncertainty at the current exceptional levels, which hampers any attempt to change the country’s ruinous fiscal situation,...

Week of December 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Dec 2015

The impeachment battle begins. In the Federal Supreme Court, Minister Edson Fachin may decide on the case questioning the divergences between the Impeachment Law and the Constitution. In the House, the Special Committee to analyze the impeachment will be installed.Former President Lula meets with...

Fixed Capital Investments – Further Decline
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Dec 2015

The worst news that came from the disclosure of the GDP data for the third quarter was the behavior of gross fixed capital formation. Measured at constant prices, the investment rate fell to 17.9% of GDP, below the level during the 2008 crisis (18.2%). In the monthly data, all GFCF components sho...

Weekly Tracker: December 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Dec 2015

The crisis between Turkey and Russia is climbing by the day in words as well as in deeds. On the domestic side, President Erdogan wants constitutional change at once, while PM Davutoglu prefers to wait for two years. The two leaders could soon clash in other policy areas as well. In Cyprus, all v...

Guide for December 6
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2015

What’s at stake? All 167 seats in the unicameral National Assembly are up for grabs on December 6: 113 deputies will be elected individually (by name, not by parties) and 54 will be chosen from party lists, allocated following the D'Hondt method.

South Africa Takes a Giant Leap East
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 04 Dec 2015

South Africa is currently hosting President Xi Jinping for the 6th China-Africa Forum, being held for the first time on the continent, aiming to restructure the relationship with China from that of a "perceived new colonizer" to an effective partner in development. China, too, is keen to recast t...

Growth Rise Driven by Oil Output
MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2015

GDP grew far more than expected in Q3, at a 12-month rate of 2.6%, vs. the market consensus projection of 2.3%, according to a preliminary report. Commerce, the weightiest of the three main sectors, grew most robustly, with its 4.8% y/y expansion surpassing consensus growth predictions of 3%. ...

One Swallow Does Not A Summer Make
CHILE · Forecast · 03 Dec 2015

We have revised our forecasts: (i) We now expect GDP to grow 2% in 2016, down from 2.5% previously; (ii) The current account deficit will be around 2% of GDP in 2016 and will increase another percentage point of GDP in 2017; (iii) The fiscal deficit will be close to 4.0% of GDP both in 2015 and 2...

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