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Zuma Defiant, snubbing the ANC's NEC
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Feb 2018

Last night at the hour of midnight, the ANC President, Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC Secretary General, Ace Magashule, were instructed by the ANC's NEC to deliver a personal message to President Zuma: resign or face the ANC NEC's recall. Zuma sent them back with a sharp and short message of defianc...

MNB-friendly inflation data out for January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Feb 2018

CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy in January, as released by the KSH this morning. The yoy rate was unchanged from December. Fuel prices rose by 1.5% mom, meaning that non-fuel inflation was 0.2% mom, the same as in January 2017, and 2.4% yoy, the latter also unchanged from December.Core infla...

Economics: Public finance bodes ill for 2018
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2018

Last week's preliminary report on public finance for the end of 2017 may have shown a long awaited drop in spending, but that was mainly a statistical distortion resulting from the failures of past years to bring it under control. There is very little room to expand revenues, rein in spending and...

Politics: Did Corral outmaneuver the Peña gov't?
MEXICO · Report · 12 Feb 2018

A little over a week ago the curtain fell on the political stand-off that had pitted the Chihuahua state and the federal governments against one another in recent months. At a joint February 3 press conference, Chihuahua Governor Javier Corral and federal Minister of the Interior Alfonso Navarret...

Zuma's defining moment today
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2018

Today, the fate of President Zuma is to be "finalised" at the emergency meeting of ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC)- which is the highest decision-making body of the Party. Last week, all indications were that ANC President, Cyril Ramaphosa, was making good progress in reaching an amicabl...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2018

As Turkey and its allied militia slowly but surely advanced into Kurdish-held Syrian canton of Afrin, President Erdogan unveiled an ambitious plan to resettle Syrian refugees along the border, which reinforces our view that Turkey intends to stay in Syria for the long haul. The plan is clever, bu...

No choice election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2018

Russia’s leadership was surprised to see the list of people associated with the Kremlin that was prepared for the US Congress at the end of January because of the lack of depth and detail of the list. However, there is a dominating expectation that more sanctions will eventually follow, and the c...

The government can still reverse the boomerang effect on expectations of the new inflation target
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Feb 2018

Heightened uncertainty about monetary policy after the change in the inflation target has increased expected inflation for 2018; however, the government can still reverse the undesired effect of this new inflation target (15% per year), announced on December 28. The President of the Central Ba...

One swallow doesn’t make a summer
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2018

We revise down our monthly inflation rate for January 2018 to 82 percent based on new information available. This is below our December estimate (90 percent) and our preliminary forecast for January (112 percent). This slowdown is temporary, in our view, and mainly reflects the reduction in food ...

(Failing to) fake out the IMF
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Feb 2018

Relations with the IMF have become a real headache for the presidential administration. Ukraine’s creditors have made it clear that an independent anti-corruption court is a must. The president’s office has tried to circumvent that demand, by submitting a bill to the Verkhovna Rada that set unrea...

Zuma exit: chaos, confusion and political drama
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2018

Yesterday SA’s governing party, the ANC, was thrown into a deep blend of mixed messages, ambiguous optimism, and unprecedented actions. First there was an announcement for an emergency meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC), to be convened on behest of the Party’s president, Mr C...

COSTA RICA: Undecided voters overturned the election results
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 06 Feb 2018

Our January 24 report explained in detail the main elements of February 4 presidential and congressional elections, including the survey results at that moment. Given the high volatility of political support due to the large proportion of undecided voters, we didn’t make any guess on the possible...

Is the end of the cycle in sight?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2018

In this report we provide a brief review of the tendencies for inflation and GDP growth in 2018. Despite the projection for expansion of GDP, by around 3%, the GDP gap is still negative, and even with the real interest rate below its neutral level, inflation will converge to the target of 4.5%. H...

2018 is looking like 2017
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 06 Feb 2018

Thanks to significant economic recovery in Q4, real GDP growth in 2017 was 4.6%. Until September, economic activity was falling, and running at a cumulative 3.9%. In December, y/y inflation climbed to 4.2%, still within the 4.0% ± 1.0% target range. Inflation returned to normal levels, as the pos...

Inflation rises
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Feb 2018

The inflation rate rose to 4% in January, exceeding the 3.5% median analyst forecast for the month. Data show a full 1% increase in average January prices over the December price level, with notable increases in food prices, particularly fish and vegetables, apparently weather-related, and a rang...

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