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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Starting 2016 With New Determination
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jan 2016

Executive Summary Walini is the name of an unproductive tea plantation outside Bandung, the provincial capital of West Java. At the time of this writing, President Jokowi broke ground for the development of the first high-speed train to connect Jakarta and Bandung. The 140 kilometer distance b...

GDP in line with expectations
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2016

GDP grew by 6.3% in 4Q15, bringing the full year average to 5.8%, a notch above our 5.7% forecast for 2015. We note the following demand-side developments: 1. Growth in household consumption accelerated to 6.4% as the peso’s depreciation made up for the slower dollar remittances (1.7% vs 5.4% ave...

Economics: Factory Exports Weak Despite Peso
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Mexico’s manufacturing exports turned in a mixed performance over the course of 2015, as automotive shipments continued to grow (although the pace of expansion has tended to slow), while the main components of the non automotive segment experienced contractions. Given the extent to which the p...

The State of South Africa’s Public Finances before the 2016 Budget Speech
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Heading towards the 2016 budget speech to be delivered on February 24, the state of South Africa’s national government finances has come under scrutiny because of the myriad of challenges that are currently faced by the country including, but definitely not limited to, low economic growth. On Jan...

Politics: The 2018 Contest Remains Wide Open
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Elections this year in 13 states will necessarily act as a filter ahead of the 2018 presidential contest, which unofficially got off to an unusually early start that predates even last year’s midterms thanks to a combination of Peña administration setbacks, the unrelenting stumping of Andrés Manu...

The New Finance Minister’s Task: Mission Impossible
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2016

The new finance minister takes office with the simultaneous mission of pursuing the fiscal adjustment and stimulating the economy, pulling it from a long and deep recession. He is faced with a veritable mission impossible. Due to lack of conviction and political support, he’s unlikely to propose,...

MNB has strengthened its easing bias
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jan 2016

In general, we are not the kind of people who prefer deriving the likely course of monetary policy from Monetary Council talk to looking at what the MNB is actually doing in its everyday regulation of the money market and, indirectly, the HUF exchange rate. But today, the Monetary Council, which ...

A Promising Start
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 26 Jan 2016

The newborn administration has taken the right steps in its first weeks in office with major announcements: first, the removal of FX controls; second, the elimination of export taxes in all agriculture and industrial exports, with the reduction from 35% to 30% in the case of soybean products; thi...

Dominican Rep issued USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 Jan 2016

On 22 January, the Dominican government issued and allocated in capital markets Sovereign Bonds for a total amount of USD 1 bn . The bonds have a term of 10 years and the rate settled was 6.875%. The bonds were previously approved by Congress and the financing is included in the Budget Law for 20...

Medina Still Looks Unbeatable
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 26 Jan 2016

President Danilo Medina, who is running for reelection on the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) slate, holds a 30-point lead over his nearest challenger, Luis Abinader of the Partido Revolucionario Moderno (PRM), according to the latest polling data. Some 57% said they would support Medin...

Week of January 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Jan 2016

For the first time in her second term, President Dilma Rousseff will summon the Economic and Social Development Council. Vice President Michel Temer visits four states ahead of the election for president of the PMDB. The government may announce stimulus measures for the oil and gas sector. The ma...

Weekly Tracker: January 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2016

Turkey is at a very critical juncture with regards to political risk premia. There are a host of issues ranging from Syria to EU, some of which present new troubles to pile on top of the existing ones, and others, which may bring opportunities for markets and the economy. The politics section of ...

Economics: Headwinds Stiffen as Volatility Builds
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2016

The first weeks of 2016 have been marked by a significant devaluation of the Mexican peso along with a similar erosion of value affecting most of the world’s emerging market currencies. In the retail market, the peso was selling Friday at 18.55 to the dollar, a development that alarmed Mexican au...

Politics: Drug Trade and Policy Post ‘Chapo’
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2016

Politics in Mexico during the first two weeks of 2016 has been dominated by the arrest of drug kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, and his eventual extradition to stand trial in the United States. This week we will focus our analysis precisely on the consequences his latest arrest will have ...

Has the Economy Reached “Rock Bottom”?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jan 2016

Prompted by reports in the specialized economics/business press, some clients have asked us if there are any signs that the cycle of contracting GDP is nearing its end. We show here that this is not what is shown by the various confidence indicators from FGV, or our leading indicator of GDP. T...

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