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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Power was absolute, but not everlasting
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Political events have evolved with amazing speed in Ecuador since May 2017, when President Moreno took office. The new president has managed to dismantle the almighty power structure of former President Correa, who finished as the “head of all powers” (as he referred to himself), dominating execu...

Tightening interbank liquidity
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Chinese banks have been caught in the middle of stronger regulations and rising pressure from new competitors, particulary the internet finance companies. Under new rules discussed late last year that banks are starting to put in place, guaranteed wealth management products have been forbidden, r...

Multiple exchange rates are back again
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2018

For some time, the government has been looking for ways to channel remittances trough the Dicom system to the central bank. We estimate this inflow at about $1 billion a year, the government seems to believe it’s around $3 billion. The huge gap between the Dicom rate and the price of the dollar i...

Shift in the monetary policy? In short, (9am BA Time) a press conference from Dujovne after Sturzengger´s resignation
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2018

Federico Sturzenegger resigned as president of the Central Bank. Former finance Minister Luis Caputo, which is one of Macri’s most trusted ministers, takes the role as head of the local monetary authority. Treasury Minister Dujoven, re-units Finance Ministry and Treasury under his commands. With ...

Senator Bautista, close ally of Leonel Fernandez, sanctioned by the US Treasury on corruption
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 14 Jun 2018

Early this week, under the so-called Magnistky Law, the US State Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Senator Felix Bautista, a close ally of former President Leonel Fernandez, for engaging in corrupt acts, including in relation to reconstruction efforts...

MNB still sees no problem with the weak forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jun 2018

Another relaxed comment came from the Monetary Council, this time from Gyula Pleschinger. Speaking today, he saw no reason to change the MNB's existing loose policy, despite the continuation of the forint's slide to EURHUF 322 today. He said the weak forint may temporarily push up CPI-inflation t...

Orange is the new black
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

​The polls for the presidential runoff race show Ivan Duque ahead of Gustavo Petro, with a clear advantage in the so-called “coffee-growing zone” and center-eastern provinces. These are relatively affluent zones, which with Bogotá, Cali, Cartagena and Barranquilla, compose Colombia’s core of weal...

Economics: Mexico enters the tariff fray with duties
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jun 2018

Not long after the European Union and Canada detailed the import taxes they were imposing on US goods in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs the Trump administration had activated, Mexico followed suit with its own list of US products on which it would impose retaliatory import duties. Lab...

What we can learn from the Datafolha poll and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The Central Bank announced an offer of US$ 20 billion by the end of the week to contain the rise of the dollar. The truckers’ demands are still on the agenda. The National Oil and Gas Agency begins a public hearing today, June 11, to collect proposals from the market for regulation that defines t...

Politics: AMLO significantly extends his lead
MEXICO · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The most recent GEA-ISA national poll of registered voters, which was conducted in late May following the second presidential candidates’ debate, shows that Andrés Manuel López Obrador has significantly expanded his lead over the rest of the field, as the slight bounce Ricardo Anaya enjoyed after...

The political and economic consequences of Martinelli’s extradition
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2018

On June 8, the Department of State accepted the request of the Panamanian Government to extradite former president Ricardo Martinelli (RM) to Panama, after being held for a year in a Federal detention center in Miami. He will be returning to Panama today. In principle, this outcome is a victory f...

Some shekel weakness likely in upcoming summer months
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Jun 2018

Wage growth accelerated significantly in Q118 and is supportive of some inflationary pressure. The fiscal deficit remained subdued through May but is likely to reach the 2.9% of GDP target by year-end. Zoom in: We expect some shekel weakness in the coming months, which is likely to boost infl...

Consumer (and construction) drives Q1 growth
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2018

The Turkish economy grew at a somewhat higher than expected 7.4% rate, y/y, in Q1 (2%, q/q), which was primarily driven by a surge in private consumption. The latter expanded at a whopping 11% rate (4.2%, q/q), driven by non-durable consumption and services (Table 1; Graphs 1-3). More broadly,...

Hyperinflation at full speed
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

We revised up our inflation estimate for May 2018 to 107 percent, from 102 percent in our previous report. Accumulated inflation for January-May 2018 rises to 2,186 percent and the year-on-year rate for May goes up to 29,360 percent. We forecast a slight slowdown in the June monthly rate to 1...

Last week’s storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

What was the cause of the storm that beset the Brazilian market last week? There was no single cause, but rather a series of causes. One was the abrupt, but not unexpected, end of an external bonanza period, characterized by low international interest rates and an abundance of foreign capital flo...

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