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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More “Temporary” Tightening, As Expected
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rate by 75 bps today, to 11.75%, while keeping all other short term rates intact (see chart). The move, which is a compromise of sorts -- because it raises rates temporarily through liquidity operations without altering the fram...

Official Ban on Cargo Traffic with Donbas
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Mar 2017

Forceful dismantling of one of the block-posts, which prevented coal supplies from Donbas, triggered quite dangerous developments. Few parliamentary parties Samopomitch (led by Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyy) and UKROP (funded by oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy) made very harsh public statements and star...

Watch out on March 28: an advance warning on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2017

Two weeks ahead of the next regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council on March 28, when the next quarterly inflation report is also due to be discussed, please be warned that the otherwise somewhat uneventful Hungarian central bank policy is facing an interesting situation. Thi...

One Year Before the Election
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2017

The new deputy head of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Kirienko, launched his first large-scale initiative to improve regional governance ahead of the 2018 presidential election. Several regional governors having issues with local elites or regional economic development were replaced with...

Inflation slows down in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2017 · 2 responses

We forecast a slowdown in the monthly inflation rate to 16 percent in March. However, the annual rate accelerates sharply to 592 percent (from 550 percent in February). Our March forecast reflects our assumption of a 28 percent decrease in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slight...

​Turkey’s spat with EU: How serious is it?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Mar 2017

Living in Turkey is waking up to a new “crisis” each day. This week’s flavor is a big tiff with Netherlands, which started with the expulsion of the Minister for Family Affairs Mrs. Fatma Betul Sayan Kaya from the country because she was trying to hold an impromptu election rally in Rotterdam. Mi...

Intense Monetary Easing and Gradual Resumption of Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 13 Mar 2017 · 1 response

The recession is ending – GDP has almost stopped shrinking – and the steep drop in inflation has allowed an intense cycle of real interest rate easing. Although the outlook is for renewed growth, this will not happen immediately. Expansion in the first two quarters of 2017 will be small, leading ...

Week of March 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Mar 2017

The government holds the auctions for the airports of Florianópolis, Porto Alegre, Salvador and Fortaleza. The Senate may analyze the proposal on the repatriation of undeclared funds held by Brazilians abroad. Based on information from Odebrecht’s plea bargain deal, the Prosecutor General of the ...

Forceful Unblocking of Trading Routs to Donbas Started
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Mar 2017

The Secret Service of Ukraine and Special Forces of Police started forceful unblocking of trading routs to Donbas today, leaders of the blockade reported in social nets. At least one block-post had been dismantled. Secret Service officially confirmed arrest of 43 alleged ‘saboteurs’. Leaders of t...

Why Do We Maintain Our 0.5% Projection for Growth in 2017?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2017

For some time now we’ve insisted that economic recovery this year will be slow, and in addition to this the GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016 was greater than projected. With this, the negative carry-over to 2017 is slightly more than previously projected, reaching -1.1%. Were it not ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2017

Referendum polls don’t grant much joy to the YES camp. Bizarre events to stoke up conservative-nationalist votes are to be expected, while a cancellation of the referendum can’t be ruled out, either. As we write these lines, a Turkish minister was declared persona non grata in Netherlands, whi...

BJP's landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh
INDIA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2017

The BJP witnessed a landslide victory in the biggest Indian state of Uttar Pradesh (U.P). The results could help pave the way for a shift in Indian politics away from identity politics towards issues of governance. The state of Uttar Pradesh has primarily relied on caste and religious identity is...

Scandals and Accusations Everywhere
PERU · Report · 10 Mar 2017

The Odebrecht affair continues to stir havoc in politics and the economy. Besides the imprisonment of a former Alan Garcia administration vice minister, and the arrest warrant for ex-President Alejandro Toledo, new accusations have surfaced suggesting that ex-President Ollanta Humala’s wife Nadin...

Building Fiscal Credibility
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Mar 2017

As we leave behind the more leisurely summer months of January and February, economic and political activity returns to a more vertiginous path. President Macri’s Address to the Nation, at the opening session of Congress on March 1, and Treasury Minister Dujovne’s presentation of new quarterly fi...

Land reform on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled the third review for Ukraine for March 20th. No one expects surprises. A $1 billion loan is down the road. Now it’s a big question what should be done for next wire. In my opinion, the land market will be the main issue for fifth review. We see the ice was finall...

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