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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cock Not Bull
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 17 Feb 2017

​Against a backdrop of policy uncertainties globally and locally, we are expecting GDP to grow 6.5% this year of the rooster, sliding to 6.3% next year; not quite the bullish picture that government envisions, i.e., of growth accelerating to 7-8% by 2018. Our outlook, moreover, entails a rooster...

Economics: Troubling 2016 Budget/Debt Results
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2017

At the end of January the Ministry of Finance released preliminary data on the public finances for year-end 2016. The data pose many points of concern, and from various angles. It confirmed a considerable rise in financial investment (170.1%) primarily resulting from the Energy Ministry's inject...

Politics: Rules of the 2018 Candidate Game
MEXICO · Report · 15 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The basic rules are essentially in place for the presidential succession process in which Mexico will be fully immersed in less than six months, along with the corresponding congressional and local races that will be in play June 3, 2018. Opposition parties appear to have given up on proposals fo...

CNT/MDA Poll: Disapproval on the rise
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Feb 2017

The CNT/MDA poll released today shows an increase of 7.4 percentage points in negative evaluations (bad/very bad) of the Michel Temer administration. Between October 2016 and February 2017, there was a reduction of 4.3 percentage points in positive evaluations (great/good). Regular evaluations os...

Starting a New Cycle
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Feb 2017

The Russian leadership is cautiously optimistic about future relations with the United States now that Donald Trump has taken office. Although their interactions have been very limited, Moscow thinks that having a favorable bargaining position in the Middle East may result in persuading the US to...

The country is on fire, but not the economy
CHILE · Report · 14 Feb 2017

Chile is being pummeled by natural disasters. This time, more than one million acres of forest in the center and south of Chile have gone up in flames. Although the initial lag in the government's response may indicate some slow decision-making, the true culprit is a Chilean state woefully unprep...

Weaker GDP, faster inflation, little surprise
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2017

Two important pieces of data, Q4 GDP and January inflation came out this morning. In sum, GDP growth continued to decelerate and the preliminary Q4 number was moderately weaker than expected, whereas inflation rose markedly in yoy terms, predominantly driven by rising fuel prices, and it met exac...

Inflation dynamics remain strong
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017

​Prices are usually reset by businesses in Venezuela at the beginning of each year. In January 2017, price increases were intense reflecting expectations associated with the accelerated rise in the parallel market rate in November (+86 percent) and December (+ 52 percent) and its continued rise, ...

En route to Nicaragua?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The government seems interested in having elections soon and seeks to implement conditions á la Nicaragua 2016 to ensure victory. On February 7, the National Electoral Council (CNE) convened 56 opposition parties, including all those forming the Democratic Unity Table (MUD) to re-enroll. The req...

Tense days in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Feb 2017

First, let me give you what you need to know: Turkey’s High Election Board officially announced the referendum date as 16th of April. We have a few new polls, two of which show YES votes ahead, one the other way around. Once again, the loud agonizing streaming from the AKP and MHP camps suggests ...

New Guidelines for Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

An important change has occurred in the government’s orientation regarding credit. Less emphasis is being given to the use of official banks, which was a marked characteristic of the economic policy in the period after the international crisis, and was intensified under the so-called “New Economi...

Week of February 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

President Michel Temer may announce the new appointee to the Ministry of Justice, replacing Alexandre Moraes, who was appointed to the STF. The Special Committees on Pension and Labor Reform will discuss work schedules. The agenda in the Lower House contains the bill that reopens the deadline for...

A Tough Row to Hoe
PERU · Forecast · 13 Feb 2017

We’ve revised our growth forecasts downward to 3.6% for 2017 and 3.8% for 2018- 2019. Albeit less rosy than official forecasts, our outlook for the Peruvian economy remains upbeat. The government is striving to speed along previously delayed PPP projects, while cutting red tape for investment,...

The Labor Market: Opposite Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Feb 2017

It is known that the labor market is one of the last to recover after the end of a recession. Therefore, the unemployment rate should continue to rise in the coming quarters, but some positive signs have started to appear. At the same time the jobless rate continues to climb steeply, wages have s...

Stable 2017 Expected, Despite Global Uncertainties
CHINA · Forecast · 12 Feb 2017

Given China’s strong fiscal condition, we expect the country to enjoy stable growth in 2017, global uncertainties notwithstanding. GDP rose 6.7% y/y in 2016, down 0.2 pps from 2015, and admittedly the lowest recent yearly rise. Fixed asset investment was up 8.1%, down 1.9 pps from 2015. After the...

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