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MPC: Back to Square One
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jan 2016

As expected, the Bank has left all interest rates unchanged today (Graph 1), most likely because of heightened volatility in global markets. As we had noted earlier, like in our last Tracker, regardless of what is meant by “simplification”, i.e. whether it is a cut of the O/N lending rate or the ...

Week of January 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2016

With the goal of rekindling her relationship with social movements, President Dilma Rousseff may take part in the World Social Forum. Minister Nelson Barbosa travels to Davos for the World Economic Forum. The Central Bank decides whether to increase the benchmark interest rate (Selic). PMDB leade...

Double-edged Sword
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Jan 2016

The Economic Emergency Decree is a political operation aimed at preventing the opposition from offering an alternative to Maduro’s political model and policies. Maduro intends to circumvent the "forced cohabitation" with the new opposition-controlled National Assembly by seeking powers to run the...

Economic Activity: More Black Clouds on the Horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jan 2016

Each new round of data on economic activity has been bringing new negative surprises. The most recent results are no different, and now the signs are that GDP in 2015 contracted by 4%, with a high probability that this outcome will be repeated in 2016.

A Rating Upgrade in Late 2016?
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2016

Hungary had a successful year in 2015, with robust, though decelerating, GDP growth, zero inflation and a stable currency, combined with growing employment, improving fiscal balance and a massive external income surplus. Supporting external factors were low oil prices, robust growth of foreign de...

Weekly Tracker: January 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jan 2016

Turkey bombed ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq in retaliation for the Istanbul terror strike, but unless Erdogan decides to take on the fundamentalist terror organization, the outlook for substantive measures is bleak. We expect more terror attacks from ISIS. PKK is about to be defeated in the urba...

Economics: Prospects Mixed, But Lifted by the Recapture of a Drug Kingpin
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2016

Fall indicators have generally been mixed. Several released in December suggested a strengthening economic direction for Mexico, including a slight sequential firming of the leading indicator for October. This was the first positive result from this indicator for 14 months, largely reflecting a f...

​Terror attack in Istanbul: This one is very different
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2016

The terror attack, attributed to an ISIS member, entering from Syria, was almost inevitable. The entire media knew and reported that more than 30 ISIS suicide bombers were loose in Turkey. The National Intelligence Agency and police were fully concentrated on catching Gulen operatives and HDP mem...

Another MNB step towards de-sterilization announced today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2016

Today, the MNB announced that it will discontinue to offer 2-week deposits after April 30, 2016, raise the total volume of interest rate swaps offered at tenders by 20% and further improve the pricing of IRS contracts. The MNB intends to implement the first of the above by gradually reducing the ...

Revised MTP: More Overtly Pro-Growth
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jan 2016

Today the government released the revised Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2016-18, which, contrary to our expectations, contains some important changes in the macro aggregates, compared to the previous MTP released in October. The details of the general macro framework and central government budget...

Week of January 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2016

President Dilma Rousseff sanctions the repatriation law and the 2016 Union Budget. The Central Bank releases the GDP preview (IBC-Br) for November. On Wednesday, January 13, workers in the air travel sector present a counterproposal in salary negotiations with the airlines. They have been ready t...

Frontal Collision
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jan 2016

The new National Assembly was peacefully seated on 5 January 2016 but the risk of surprises hasn’t been wiped out. Maduro’s strategy is to fuel conflict and to preclude the new assembly from legislating and from controlling and auditing the government. It rests on the Supreme Tribunal of Justi...

Back to Issues at Home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Jan 2016

President Putin demonstrated his willingness to protect team members, especially under pressure from opposition. A top level law enforcement official’s family turned out to be involved in multiple illegal activities, and the issue was brought up publicly to the President himself, yet there have b...

Inflation: a Worrying Picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jan 2016

Inflation in 2015 reached 10.67%, more than 4 percentage points above the top of the target interval. The main problem, however, is not the past behavior of inflation, but rather the perspectives for 2016. First, inflation is extremely resistant to falling. Second, the present recession turns to ...

Weekly Tracker: January 10-16
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jan 2016

A bi-partisan commission of 4 parties should soon begin to draft a new Constitution. The exercise is expected to run aground in about six months, however, because AKP insists on an Executive Presidency. The failure of the commission might result in a referendum or early elections. Turkish secu...

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