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MPC Delivers Consensus, Ends Simplification
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N Lending and Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rates by 75 and 100 bps, to 9.25% and 11%, respectively, while keeping the O/N Borrowing and Weekly Repo rates unchanged at 7.25% and 8%, respectively (see chart). It was hard to speak of a consensus prior to th...

Another Insipid Quarter for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Jan 2017

• South Africa’s Growth: South African economic growth was erratic during the first three quarters of 2016, with even the relatively high growth recorded during the second quarter proving to be unsustainable as GDP growth rate dipped to only 0.2% in the third quarter. Furthermore, the third quar...

Week of January 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2017

The death of Supreme Court Minister Teori Zavascki will continue to have repercussions. President Michel Temer is looking at replacements for the open seat in the STF, while the debate on how the Court will choose the new rapporteur of the Lava Jato cases continues. We discuss this matter in dept...

​The budget after demonetization
INDIA · In Brief · 23 Jan 2017

The demonetization exercise, that the government claimed was a bold move against black money, could set the tone for the forthcoming budget on February 1, 2017. It appears to have been successful as a political strategy that persuaded people that the government wishes to punish the rich and corru...

Inflation on a Steep Downward Path
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jan 2017

The most recent results show that, after all, there is nothing wrong with Brazilian inflation. In the second half of 2016, claims were frequently heard that Brazil suffered from a serious pathology – the strong inflation inertia – which kept prices rising steeply even during a long and deep reces...

Ricardo Sanguino, new president of BCV
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Ricardo Sanguino is the new president of the BCV, appointed by the President of the Republic for a 7-year term. The National Assembly doesn’t have a say in this matter. Changes to the Board of the BCV may follow. Sanguino has been a member of the National Assembly since 2000 and presided over the...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response

With the Grand Assembly approving the constitutional reform bill, Turkey will hold a referendum on Executive Presidency during the first week of April. We assign 60% odds to Erdogan winning the ballot. Main downside risks are economic slowdown, terror and MHP supporters turning their back to the ...

Lagarde is positive about next wire for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2017

Today the IMF Managing Director Cristine Lagarde met President Petro Poroshenko in Davos, reported Interfax-Ukraine news agency. Ms. Lagarde said to journalists that Ukraine and the IMF are finalizing the remaining technical details to provide the next tranche. Our sources in the Cabinet and the ...

The Implications of Minister Teori Zavascki’s Replacement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2017

The press has confirmed that Minister Teori Zavascki, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), has died in an airplane crash off the coast of Rio de Janeiro this afternoon. Teori was the rapporteur of the cases in the Lava Jato Operation.The main doubt following his death concerns the rapporteurshi...

Economics: Blowback from Botched Price Hike
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017

During the last days of 2016, the federal government announced it would authorize an increase in gasoline and diesel prices that would take effect during the first days of January. We at GEA believe that while the price hike may have been justified by the rise in oil prices and foreign exchange ...

Politics: Governability in Question
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017

Following a couple of weeks of unexplained gasoline shortages, the government announced on December 27 that on New Year’s Day gasoline prices would rise by 20% on average, this following years of assurances by President Enrique Peña that the energy reform would do away with such "gasolinazos". Fe...

Election Policies and a Labor Shortage will Dominate in 2017
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2017

Fresh data reflects the continuation of weak growth into Q4 2016. Evidence of this was decreasing output in industry and construction, weakening external trade dynamics and decelerating wage and retail sales growth, as shown by the October, and partly November, statistics. 2016 GDP growth is u...

Dealing with an age-old problem
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2017

In the heat of the summer campaign, then candidate Rodrigo Duterte promised to raise old age pensions for private sector employees, a proposal that was vetoed by then President Benigno Aquino. Told by his economic managers after he won that granting pension increases without a compensatory revenu...

Draft of the IMF Memorandum
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jan 2017

Yesterday media published a draft of the IMF memorandum (see attached). Someone from the Cabinet shared with journalists a version of the document. It’s not a final one and very likely the official document will be pretty much different. But still it’s of interest what is currently discussed with...

Week of January 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2017

Two important international events: the World Economic Forum (Davos) and the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the US. The federal government negotiates a fiscal recovery agreement with Rio de Janeiro, which could be announced by next week. The PT discusses filing a case against the ...

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