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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal Results, Pension System and Politics
PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2015

The fiscal results to September 2015 released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance showed an overall deficit of the NFPS of $903 million (-2.3% of GDP[1]), smaller than last year’s (-5.8% of estimated GDP1). Although this figure represents sound public finance management, the main reason the de...

Turning Point?
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Dec 2015

New national accounts data brings encouraging news: though below consensus expectations, growth in Q3 was higher than in Q2. This is at least anecdotal evidence of a possible turnaround, especially if the trend persists. Growth was reported at 4.73% in Q3, up from 4.67% in Q2, though still dow...

The Fiscal Disaster and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

There is little hope of any improvement in the fiscal picture: the most recent numbers reveal that over the past 12 months, the central government has accumulated a recurring deficit of more than 1% of GDP; the recession continues to erode revenues; and there is no political support for approval ...

Coexistence or new government?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2015

With December 6 (“6D”) National Assembly elections a week away, surveys continue to show the opposition leading by 10 to 30 percentage points. However, with a still-large share of undecided voters, an unequal distribution of seats that gives the government a built-in advantage, and the government...

Week of November 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

This will be one of the tensest weeks of President Dilma Rousseff’s second term. The president of the House has promised to examine the impeachment requests by Friday, December 4. The vote on changes to the 2015 fiscal target is scheduled for Tuesday.

The South African Economy Avoids a Recession but Continues to Struggle
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 30 Nov 2015

South Africa’s Growth: The South African economy has entered a difficult period once again; the most recent major one was the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Risks to the outlook remain on the downside, with a myriad of unfavorable conditions facing the economy. The country, however, narrowl...

Change in the Monetary Policy Signal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

Although keeping the SELIC rate at 14.25% a year, the Central Bank signaled that it might return to a tightening cycle. At the last COPOM meeting, two directors voted for a hike of 0.5 percentage point, and the communiqué omitted the previous comment that the interest rate would be maintained “fo...

Bad news, good news
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Nov 2015

So many events are developing so fast that I couldn’t cover them all in the Weekly Tracker. In this update I’ll report on the murder of the Diyarbakir Bar Association Chairman Mr. Tahir Elci (bad news) and the summit agreement between Turkey and EU (very good news) regarding refugees and the open...

Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Nov 2015

Though Sen. Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) leads all the scenarios in which he appears as a candidate for the 2018 presidential elections, the news in the most recent Datafolha poll is that former Senator Marina Silva (Rede), who placed third in the 2010 and 2014 elections, is a threat to both Aécio and f...

Weekly Tracker: Nov 29 - Dec 5
TURKEY · Report · 29 Nov 2015

The downed jet fighter crisis between Turkey and Russia will not fade away soon. Russia’s real motive is to disengage Turkey from all Syrian affairs, for which it found the perfect excuse. The crisis is likely to escalate in the military and economic dimensions, raising Turkey’s risk premium perm...

What Now?
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Nov 2015

Will Finance Minister Mauricio Cárdenas leave the government in the next political shuffling, to follow the siren call of a 2018 presidential candidacy? Rumor has it that he might. And the rumor may have merit, since President Juan Manuel Santos’ Partido de la U lacks a credible candidate – and i...

Conflicting signals from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Nov 2015

It usually does not look very elegant to return to any story with a markedly different conclusion within a few days' time. But this time around we need to do exactly this. As it happened, just one day after a senior staff member of the MNB (Mr. Virág, executive director) made a rare and specific ...

Economics: Congress’ Tinkering with the Budget
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

As we analyzed in previous issues of Weekly Trends: Mexico Economy since October 26, the changes the Mexican Congress introduced to President Enrique Peña Nieto’s original 2016 Revenue Law propose an increase of 16.9 billion pesos. In contrast, lawmakers left the president’s public deficit propos...

Politics: Two Seats to Fill on High Court
MEXICO · Report · 26 Nov 2015

President Enrique Peña Nieto has sent the Senate two alternative lists of candidates from which to choose the two people who are to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court being left by Justices Olga Sánchez Cordero and Juan Silva Meza, who are concluding their 15-year terms on the bench. This is the...

GDP at 6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Nov 2015

The economy’s 3Q15 performance, with growth accelerating to 6% on strong domestic demand, was generally in line with what we expected. The main source of higher growth last quarter was government spending. Public consumption rose 17% and public construction jumped 41%. Improved government expendi...

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