NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...

Congress Likely to Rubber Stamp Unremarkable New Budget
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 27 Oct 2015

Economic activity continues to grow at a healthy clip, rising an estimated 7.1% in Q3 and 6.7% y/y, with accumulated January to September growth at 6.4%. Inflation in September reached 0.16%; accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year stood at 1.33%; and y/y inflation was 0.39...

No Man’s Land
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 26 Oct 2015

The October 25 Colombian elections have shown that Colombian politics nowadays is “no man’s land”. Despite the fact that Vargas-Lleras is the front-runner for 2018, these elections left him as a lone ranger, without firm multi-party support. On the other hand, the loss by the political left in Bo...

Week of October 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Fiscal matters will be the focus of the week, with the release of the new public accounts deficit. The TCU may analyze the government’s “fiscal maneuvers”. In the House, we highlight the vote on the bill that allows for the repatriation of funds held by Brazilians abroad. In Brasília, the PT disc...

The Crisis and the Conflict Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Brazil is not experiencing a balance of payments crisis: the current account deficits have been shrinking sharply and the reserves are plentiful. What exists is interplay of fiscal and political crises. The government does not have the strength to achieve the fiscal adjustment necessary to curb t...

Resolving NPLs in China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Friday’s announcements on new monetary easing measure were expected by the market and do not imply any change in policy direction. They are largely a response to continued slowing but I do not expect them to interrupt the decline in GDP growth. - Unfortunately measures that relieve debt serv...

Guatemala: Jimmy Morales elected president
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Jimmy Morales, of the right wing party PCN-Nación, won yesterday´s second round presidential election against Sandra Torres, of the center-left party UNE. Although the total turnout was low (only 54% of people registered went to vote), Morales won by a wide margin (69% to 31%). He will be sworn i...

Monetary Policy: A New Signal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2015

The COPOM kept the interest rate at 14.25%, but stopped indicating the intention to attain the inflation target of 4.5% in 2016. Because of the deepening recession and inflationary shock coming from the loosening of fiscal policy, the Central Bank announced it will maintain the SELIC rate at 14.2...

Local elections: pro-reformists forces lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2015

On October 25th Ukrainians have been electing local MPs and mayors of the cities. Interesting that new law on local elections was approved in July 2015 just few months before the voting. As a result, rules of the game were totally changed and created a lot of confusion. In essence, there were int...

Ballotage it is! And Macri even managed an initial lead over Scioli.
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2015

With so far 76% of the votes accounted for, the prelaminar results indicate that there will be a second round presidential election on November the 22nd, i.e. Scioli did not manage to win in the first round. Not only did the governor of the Province of Buenos Aires miss the 40% hurdle (so far wit...

Weekly Tracker: October 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 Oct 2015

This week’s Tracker is solely dedicated to election results and coalition scenarios. October polls assign very little odds to an outright AKP victory, but the party might produce 270-275 seats, sufficient to be tempted into a third election. In case of a hung-parliament, AKP-CHP is the most li...

MNB desterilization proceeds with no impact on interest rates and EURHUF, watch Polish elections on October 25 though
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2015

It has been roughly a month since the MNB's reform of monetary policy tools, and after the latest auctions on October 21, it is time to look at the results so far. Here is a list of what we have found: - The stock placed by banks in 3-month deposits, the new main sterilization instrument, has ris...

SA Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS)
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Oct 2015

In the midst of chaos and the exchange of stun grenades between the police and protesting students within the precinct of the Parliament, Minister Nene delivered his 2015 MTBPS. While the university students were adamant that education fees should be frozen, and even be eliminated altogether, the...

Sour Drink
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Oct 2015

Q1 and Q2 GDP shrinkage, of -0.1% and -0.3%, confirmed widespread fears that Ecuador is in recession. No one was surprised. But officials have been slow to react, only recently talking about economic adjustments they admit might be a “sour drink for the population.” Minister of Finance Fausto ...

The policy framework remains intact
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Oct 2015

President Maduro’s announcements on October 20 send a message to his radical followers: the government deepens economic controls and will stay on course even if it were to lose control of the National Assembly. The announcements hurt business expectations, deepen the recession and leave intact th...

Panama’s Tax Information Stance Amidst Pressure from the International Community
PANAMA · Report · 21 Oct 2015

Executive Summary In recent years, a new focus on transparency and exchange of information, efforts led by the G-20 and implemented and monitored by the OECD, has been in the forefront of the international agenda. Many countries and multilateral organizations are shifting their policies to move a...