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Odebrecht Bribery Scandal Shakes Government and Society
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 31 Jan 2017

The revelations from the Lava Jato investigations in Brazil, and from a U.S. Department of Justice investigation into illegal practices of Brazilian companies, are shaking the continent, and the Dominican Republic, too. The hottest topic is an extensive bribery scheme that the Odebrecht construct...

New offensive in Donbas: 7 soldiers killed, Avdiyivka metallurgical coke plant stops operating
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Jan 2017 · 9 responses

Over the last few days Russians and separatists unfolded heavy attacks on Ukrainian positions. Officials reported 7 Ukrainian soldiers killed. Yesterday Avdiyivka metallurgical coke plant (belongs to Rinat Akhmetov) was seriously damaged with shelling and was finally stopped. The total town of Av...

Week of January 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2017

Congress and the STF resume activity this week. The presidents of the Lower House and Senate will be elected, along with elections for other important posts in both houses. The Supreme Court may decide on the rapporteur for the Lava Jato case, to replace Teori Zavascki. The government may send La...

The politics of China’s economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Jan 2017

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The most important event in 2017 is the Party Congress that will be held towards the end of this year, in which a large number of the top leadership will be retired or promoted. Any useful analysis of the Chinese economy must begin with the political ...

New priorities and dialogue opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2017

With the threat of a recall vote out of the way but the risk of complete social breakdown high, Nicolás Maduro is trying to impose order, stabilize the economy, and recover popular support in anticipation of elections the regime will have to submit to sooner or later. A new identity card will hel...

What Can be Expected Regarding the Behavior of Credit?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2017

Although further contraction of GDP in the first quarter cannot be discarded, there are already clear signs that the economy is ready to start a period of recovery. The continuity of the reforms and indications that the monetary easing will be intense have improved the risk perceptions and streng...

Volunteering squads block trading with occupied territories
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Jan 2017

Last week volunteering squads started trade blockade of occupied territories of Eastern Donbas. Unlike previous efforts this time it looks like the story might be much more serious. The point is that new effort to stop trading with Eastern Donbas was undertook amid growing irritation about huge h...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Because CHP appealed to the Constitutional Court to have the constitutional reform bill declared null and void, the date for the referendum is still not certain. However, AKP is running scared, as even its constituency is having doubts about the wisdom of an executive presidency. Latest poll data...

The Central bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 14%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017

Today the Board of Directors of the Central bank decided to keep policy rate unchanged at 14%. Inflation threats related to doubled minimum wages as well as recent volatility at the FX market stand behind such a decision. Given that prices indeed will speed up over the upcoming weeks (we already ...

Politics: Was Chapo a Free Gift to Trump?
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2017

Last week marked the end of an epoch. Following his improbable victory and a bumpy transition, Donald Trump assumed the office of President of the United States. This fact does not change everything for Mexico, but it does change a great deal. The new occupant of the White House has been very...

Economics: Muted Effect of GOP Tax Plan’s Border Tax
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jan 2017

In recent weeks one of the aspects of the Trump presidency that has generated the most uncertainty in Mexico is the way in which it has posed restricting imports from other countries and promoting US domestic production. Of particular concern is the Republican Party’s fiscal reform proposal, whic...

4Q16 GDP grew 6.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017

Data released today showed the domestic economy growing 6.6% in 4Q16, sliding from the election-driven 7% growth clip in earlier quarters.Production accounts traced the slower growth to weather-related agricultural losses and moderating industry growth, particularly private construction.These are...

Mislead and Succeed
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Jan 2017

The government has played a masterful hand, using the Odebrecht scandal regarding bribes paid to Ecuadorian government officers to cover up the more costly case​ of Petroecuador, in which top officials such as Carlos Pareja Yanuselli are involved. Ecuadorians seem to be more preoccupied with...

No change at today's rate-setting meeting, soft policy stance maintained
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2017

No one on the market expected the MNB to announce any policy change today, and the Monetary Council met that strong consensus expectation. The base rate remains at 0.9% and the O/N interest-rate corridor at -0.05-0.9%. Previously, the MNB said that it is going to offer HUF125bn at tomorrow's 3-mo...

The Reserve Bank Gives Economic Growth a Fighting Chance as it Refrains from Raising Interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jan 2017

In a move that did not surprise the markets, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate at 7% per annum, leaving the prime overdraft rate at 10.50%. The latest inflation data (December 2016) shows an acceleration in the inflation rate ...

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