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All Eyes on the Referendum
TURKEY · Forecast · 12 Feb 2017

Economy remains weak and the political atmosphere toxic, which makes the road to the presidential referendum, scheduled for April 16th, crucial as well as rocky. If AKP loses the referendum, Turkey could enter an existential crisis. If it wins, which is our base-case scenario for now, it gets a l...

Moreno and Lasso Probably Disputing the Presidency
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2017

According to the Electoral Law, February 8th was the last day to publish presidential polls results before the elections on February 19th. These last publications are not much different from the ones provided back in January 24th. Around 30% of Ecuadorians still have not yet decided whom they wil...

Economics: NAFTA Renegotiation Scenarios
MEXICO · Report · 10 Feb 2017

Three weeks have passed since Donald Trump assumed the office of president of the United States, and Mexico’s productive sector remains gripped by uncertainty as to the repercussions of potential changes to United States trade policy. With a zealous commitment to implementing a poorly conceive...

President Zuma’s 2017 State of Nation Address: Not Much Inspiration, and Much Humiliation, Insults, Pepper Gas and Eviction
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

President Zuma’s State of Nation Addresses (SONA) 2017 was a lot more dramatic than his 2016. His speech was delayed by an hour due to melodramatic, eventful, violent and humiliating display of political theatrics. Armed with last year’s Constitutional Court’s judgement that President Zuma had vi...

Monetary Policy for 2017
INDIA · Report · 09 Feb 2017

Inflation has declined, and the outlook for inflation is soft. Demonetization is likely to have induced a slowdown in the economy, which will feed back into soft inflation. We expect weak output growth in calendar year 2017 across a variety of output measures. In order to achieve the inflation ta...

Politics: State of Mexico Contests Key for 2018
MEXICO · Report · 09 Feb 2017

Voters will elect new governors in Coahuila, Nayarit and the State of Mexico and choose new municipal presidents in Veracruz in June. All four contests serve as early indicators of how electoral preferences are shaping up in relation to the three parties currently enjoying the strongest polling r...

GDP surges 4.5-4.8% in 4Q16, officials say
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

GDP surged 4.5-4.8% y/y in 4Q16 the Head of State Statistics Service Igor Verner reported at the Cabinet meeting yesterday. This means that in 2016 GDP increased 2.2% y/y which is much above our estimates (we projected 1.4% y/y). If the estimate proves to be correct it’s definitely good news. At ...

​Monetary policy stance changed to neutral
INDIA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee took yet another unanimous decision on policy rates. This time, in its third meeting, the unanimous decision was to keep the policy rate unchanged, and to change the stance of monetary policy from “accommodative” to “neutral”. It is difficult to understand how a deci...

Fresh data, old themes
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2017

Two new pieces of statistics, one on the government budget and one on industrial output, seem to reinforce the old trend: robust performance on financial equilibrium, combined with a weak showing on economic growth.1. The good news is about the January cash balance of the central government, whic...

Escalation in Donbas - But Notable Reforms and Economic Growth
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Feb 2017

The situation in eastern Ukraine deteriorated in late January, with volunteer squads beginning a trade blockade against the occupied territories. This move was supported by ordinary Ukrainians, who are increasingly unhappy over rising utility rates. Ukraine still imports coal from the occupied te...

Finance Minister speaks: land reform, potential Eurobonds and accusations against the chief tax collector
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2017

Yesterday, on Feb. 6th, Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk gathered journalists for a meeting and shared with public few interesting points. Firstly, he stated that the law on agri-land circulation will be submitted to the parliament by the end of May. It was agreed with the IMF. Previously, the...

AKP stuffs Wealth Fund with choice assets, eyes securitized borrowing abroad
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Feb 2017

Starting with a State of Emergency decree on Sunday, the AKP administration began stuffing Turkey’s fledgling Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) with prime assets from its privatization portfolio and other state holdings. Ziraat and Halkbank, two state-owned commercial banks, Turkish Airlines, Turkish P...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2017

As usually happens in times of crisis, in 2017 the political and economic scenarios will continue to be symbiotically intertwined. That interdependence is evident, for example, in the behavior of asset prices, which continue to be commanded by events that affect the joint probability of two hypot...

Week of February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2017

The government will present details about the economic stimulus measures announced late last year. President Michel Temer receives a visit from President of Argentina Mauricio Macri in Brasília. On the agenda for the meeting are Argentina’s new policies for the automotive sector. In the Lower Hou...

What Does Industrial Production Say About the Speed of Recovery?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2017

Brazil is nearing the end of the long and deep recession that began in the second quarter of 2014. In phases like this it is common for some sectors to start recovering while others are still contracting. This is one of the reasons to avoid making inferences about economic trends based on high-fr...

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