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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The signals from the Central Bank: What can be expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Feb 2018

In the communiqué of the decision that lowered the SELIC rate to 6.75%, the Central Bank indicated a high probability that the easing cycle was over, but the minutes left the door open to one more cut. More important than discussing whether the cycle will end at 6.75% or 6.5%, however, is recogni...

It will be difficult to stop Fidesz in April
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

In January, Fidesz continued its strengthening trend in opinion polls, returning after three and a half years to the high level of support it enjoyed around the latest local government election in October 2014. Fidesz is quite clearly set now to win a comfortable constitutional majority at the Ap...

U.S. deal hopes, stark IMF warnings
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2018

The U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson left Turkey with promises of empathy, cooperation and compromise, but cynicism runs high in Ankara. America’s ability to persuade Kurds to withdraw from Syrian city Manbij to the eastern shore of Euphrates Rivers is seen as the litmus test of credibility ...

President Ramaphosa ushers a new era in South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Feb 2018

A few minutes ago,President Ramaphosa delivered his first State of Nation Address (SONA), emphasizing the dawn of a new era, an era of hope and reconstrution. He committed himself and his incoming government to ethical leadership, a departure from his predecessor, and reversion to the type of lea...

A gap between reported and true GDP?
INDIA · Report · 16 Feb 2018

There is a remarkable divergence between reported nominal GDP and a sensible nominal output proxy in the period after the CSO changed the methods for GDP measurement. This has interesting implications for how we think about fiscal economics.

China’s bad debt problem: Underestimated NPLs still a big threat to China’s banking system
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 16 Feb 2018

There have been a number of external estimates of China’s bad loans. The most widely utilized number was provided by the IMF, which analyzed 2,871 companies to estimate what percentage was not generating enough cash to pay interest expense. It arrived at an estimate of 15.5% of total corporate lo...

Federal intervention in Rio de Janeiro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Following reports of escalating violence in Rio de Janeiro, President Michel Temer has decided to decree federal intervention in the public security of the state. President Temer will sign the Intervention Decree in the Public Security of the State of Rio de Janeiro today, February 16, during a c...

Election bulletin: Huck exit benefits Alckmin
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2018

TV Globo personality Luciano Huck (no party) has stated that he will not run for president, putting an end to increased speculation about a possible candidacy. Huck’s exit benefits Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), as it reduces the likelihood that a new candidate without ties to traditional politics will ...

RRR cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Feb 2018

On the eve of the lunar new year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio from 20% to 19%, releasing about P90 billion into the financial system. The move was a surprising one coming on the heels of a higher than expected January inflation rate and at a time when mark...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Feb 2018 · 1 response

The unanimous confirmation of Lula’s conviction by the TRF-4 court, with increase of his prison sentence, has made the probability of his appearance on the ballot in October remote. This development has focused attention on the center of the political spectrum, and negotiations are ongoing to for...

Q4 GDP growth above expectation, points to a (somewhat) weaker forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Feb 2018

GDP growth for Q4 2018 came out this morning at 1.3% qoq, 4.8% yoy on sda basis, the latter up from an upwardly revised 4.2% yoy in the previous quarter. This was clearly above expectation (market: 4.1% yoy, our forecast: 4.4% yoy), a great part of the positive surprise coming from the revision o...

Zuma's era ends in 24 hours!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 14 Feb 2018

At last, Zuma's missteps, tactics and strategies check-mated him. He has been put in a no-win binnary position:"resign before mid-night, or tomorrow at 14h00 the Parliament will remove you via a vote of no confidence supported by the combined ANC, EFF and all other opposition parties." To reach t...

Foreign exchange potpourri
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2018

The government and the central bank returned to the forex scene with Exchange Agreement 39[1] after a six-month hiatus. The official explanation of the pause is that the sanctions imposed by the United States made fund transfers impossible. The changes make up a medley of advances and setbacks...

A Sirius year
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 13 Feb 2018

Macroeconomic prospects look bright in the Year of the Dog with global growth returning to around 4% in 2018. Philippine GDP growth is expected to remain among the fastest, at 6.8% this year. Apart from rising world demand, domestic activity will gain from higher household spending and public c...

Colombian elections: Opinion versus machinery
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Feb 2018

From 2019 onwards, every high school graduate would have free college education in public universities, at a yearly cost of 14 trillion COP, approximately 1.5% of GDP, to be financed by reducing other less important public investments, such as the 4G road system. By constitutional mandate, the ju...

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