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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal Policy: More Transparency, but the Situation is Difficult
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2016

Last week the fiscal policy data for December were announced, incorporating the payment of the “budget rollovers” (pedaladas) from previous years. The good news is that 2016 is starting without the hangover of liabilities from past years. However, although the fiscal statistics are now more trans...

Both Growth and the Yuan Will Stabilize
CHINA · Report · 01 Feb 2016

Real GDP was up just 6.9% in 2015, down 0.5 pps from 2014, and its lowest growth rate for 25 years. This is causing great consternation in international markets. Yet the weakening growth trend is diminishing. GDP in Q4 was up 6.8% y/y, down only 0.2 pps from Q1, while H2 growth was stable. The sl...

Weekly Tracker: Jan 31- Feb 6
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2016

Peace talks in Geneva are finally underway, but expectations for a break-through to end the five-year war are very low. Meanwhile, Russia is cooperating with PYD, the Syrian Kurdish entity, to encircle Turkey from the South, a harbinger of more regional tensions to come. The campaign to put do...

El Salvador: When it Comes to the Economy, We Disagree
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

Recent government estimates of economic activity are controversial in the business sector, which complains that government is painting an inappropriately optimistic view of the economy. Businesspeople question whether growth based on private consumption financed by remittances, and by the tempora...

Is This Going to Work?
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

The official forecast for the central government deficit is 3.6% of GDP (around 30 trillion pesos) this year, up from 3% last year and 2.2% in 2014. But this year’s deficit might be closer to 4.2% of GDP, as keeping it at 3.6% depends on spending cuts. The budget was based on overly optimistic as...

Projections stand in spite of turbulent economic and political environment
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

We summarize in this document the impact of some key events in order to assess the economic panorama for Panama this year. Some of them are of internal nature: The new banking regulations (adding to the likely increase in the cost of funds to local banks) that may increase the lending rate...

Dominican Republic: Medina is ahead in voting preferences...but not as much as previously thought
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Jan 2016

A new survey by Asisa Research, a well-known poll firm, found that if elections were to be held today, President Danilo Medina (PLD and allies) would get 54.8% of the votes while Luis Abinader (PRM and allies) would get 38.6%. Guillermo Moreno, nominated by Alianza Pais and allies, would get 3% o...

The SARB Kicks off the Year by Raising the Repo Rate by 50 basis Points
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted to increase the repurchase (repo) rate, the country’s benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points during its first meeting of the year in 2016. This has brought the repo rate up from 6.25% to 6.75% per annum. The i...

Starting 2016 With New Determination
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jan 2016

Executive Summary Walini is the name of an unproductive tea plantation outside Bandung, the provincial capital of West Java. At the time of this writing, President Jokowi broke ground for the development of the first high-speed train to connect Jakarta and Bandung. The 140 kilometer distance b...

GDP in line with expectations
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2016

GDP grew by 6.3% in 4Q15, bringing the full year average to 5.8%, a notch above our 5.7% forecast for 2015. We note the following demand-side developments: 1. Growth in household consumption accelerated to 6.4% as the peso’s depreciation made up for the slower dollar remittances (1.7% vs 5.4% ave...

Economics: Factory Exports Weak Despite Peso
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Mexico’s manufacturing exports turned in a mixed performance over the course of 2015, as automotive shipments continued to grow (although the pace of expansion has tended to slow), while the main components of the non automotive segment experienced contractions. Given the extent to which the p...

The State of South Africa’s Public Finances before the 2016 Budget Speech
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Heading towards the 2016 budget speech to be delivered on February 24, the state of South Africa’s national government finances has come under scrutiny because of the myriad of challenges that are currently faced by the country including, but definitely not limited to, low economic growth. On Jan...

Politics: The 2018 Contest Remains Wide Open
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2016

Elections this year in 13 states will necessarily act as a filter ahead of the 2018 presidential contest, which unofficially got off to an unusually early start that predates even last year’s midterms thanks to a combination of Peña administration setbacks, the unrelenting stumping of Andrés Manu...

The New Finance Minister’s Task: Mission Impossible
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2016

The new finance minister takes office with the simultaneous mission of pursuing the fiscal adjustment and stimulating the economy, pulling it from a long and deep recession. He is faced with a veritable mission impossible. Due to lack of conviction and political support, he’s unlikely to propose,...

MNB has strengthened its easing bias
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Jan 2016

In general, we are not the kind of people who prefer deriving the likely course of monetary policy from Monetary Council talk to looking at what the MNB is actually doing in its everyday regulation of the money market and, indirectly, the HUF exchange rate. But today, the Monetary Council, which ...

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