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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Corozal did not materialize… Economy continues its trend
PANAMA · Report · 31 Mar 2017

In 2016, Panama’s GDP grew 4.9%, deaccelerating for a fifth consecutive year. The leading sectors in the economy were: education services (which grew 10.9%); electricity, gas and water supply (10.6%); mining (8.4%); construction (8.3%); and financial intermediation (6.6%). On the other hand, agri...

Less Austerity, More Intelligence?
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Mar 2017

Last week the Ministry of Finance presented a COP 7.7 trillion budgetary addition to Congress -- its first in nine years. This more than undoes the spending cut approved when the budget passed in Q4 2016. Under the label of “intelligent austerity,” the Ministry of Finance had earlier introduced a...

Jakarta Election Fever
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Indonesian politics in the past few months have been heavily influenced by the gubernatorial election in Jakarta. The incumbent governor, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, famously known as "Ahok", has been challenged by Anies Baswedan. Ahok has double minority status; he is both Chinese and a Christian, w...

South Africa: A New Minister of Finance & A New Fiscal Dispensation
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017 · 1 response

Malusi Gigaba is South Africa's new Minister of Finance, and his deputy is Mr Sfiso Buthelezi. Previously, Gigaba has been Minister of State Enterprises before, and in the recent past he was Minister of Home Affairs. He is a staunch Zuma supporter, and the face of new generation of ANC leaders. D...

President Zuma Strikes: Sfiso Buthelezi is new Deputy Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017 · 1 response

The much awaited cabinet reshuffle happened, and it was swift and far reaching. After a blistering attack by the SA Communist Party earlier today, Zuma strikes to assert his authority without concerns for politics or economics. Not only is Minister Pravin Gordhan sacked, but also a large number o...

SA Minister of Finance: Pravin Gordhan Sacked
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

It is now confirmed that Pravin Gordhan is sacked as the SA Minister of Finance. His replacement is not yet formally announced. Most likely candidates is Mr Sfiso Buthelezi as the replacement for Pravin Gordhan, and Brian Molefe is a likely Deputy Minister of Finance....

President Zuma's Reshuffle Update
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

President Zuma is reported to have sacked 9 ministers and 6 deputy ministers. All details are not out, but it is almost certain that Minister Gordhan and Deputy Minister Jonas would be amongst the 15. TV station ANN7, the Gupta Family's TV station, has just reported the news. The official preside...

President Zuma's High Risk Road
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

Earlier this evening, at around 19h00, President Zuma convened an emergency meeting of the ANC Top 6, he called a number of ministers to stand by too. This is the strongest sign so far that he may have made up his mind to take the high risk road after all. If he reshuffles, both Minister of Finan...

GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth and Stability Expected
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Guatemala experienced a year of adjustment in 2016, after the political turmoil of 2015. The new administration spent its first months negotiating a learning curve, given President Jimmy Morales’ lack of political experience. It was also a year of adjustment to a new political balance in Congres...

Economics: Wages Start Lagging Inflation
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Initial labor market data for 2017 reveals weakness in real wages, which fell 0.6% year over year in January 2017, an erosion that resulted primarily from an acceleration of inflation to 4.72% that same month. In this context of resurgent inflation, the 1,361 wage reviews conducted under federal ...

Politics: Death Spiral Raises Crime Alarm
MEXICO · Report · 30 Mar 2017

Public security in Mexico appears to have embarked on a downward spiral, including the murder of three journalists in less than a month and large-scale prison breaks in the past ten days, which played out against a resurgence of intentional homicides nationwide. There were 2,098 cases of murder l...

Zuma's Cabinet Reshuffle Plan: His Plot Backfires big time
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

Over the past 24 hours a ground swell of political pressures have targeted Zuma, piling focus on him and his allies and cronies so as to push him to back off. This morning, the SA Communist Party and Business Leadership SA , and many others including x-President Motlanthe have come out calling fo...

The Beast and Beauty
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

The tale is a bizarre one. Barely nine months in office, both President Rodrigo Duterte and his deputy, Vice President Leni Robredo, are facing the prospect of impeachment. In the former case, the complaint filed before congress went on recess in mid-March sought to impeach the President for amon...

​Nation Security Council Meeting and Fool’s Gold
TURKEY · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017

I know everyone is focused on the presidential referendum, but there is little new to report there. In my poll-of-polls the NO camp pulled ahead a smidgeon farther, thanks a new one by centre-left SONAR which gave it a 51-49% edge. I still maintain AKP will find a way to win with 55% probability....

President Zuma and Pravin Gordhan: Shifting the Risk Burden
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017

President Zuma convened a meeting of his cabinet earlier this evening to discuss the sudden recall of Minister Gordhan forcing him to abort his no-deal roadshow in London. Tomorrow the cabinet will brief the nation on the outcome of cabinet deliberations. But it appears that the President's push ...

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