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President Zuma's sunset week
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Jan 2018

South Africa is once again abuzz with speculations and excitements about President Zuma. This time it is not about what Zuma will do, rather what will be done to Zuma. This is a regime change for Zuma's decade of unquestioned control and dominance. Whereas during the past decade he had all the le...

Our take on current protests
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 08 Jan 2018 · 1 response

2018 starts off with social conflict. Riots began shortly after the municipal elections, the final event of the electoral cycle that allowed Maduro to hold on to power thanks to a new social contract: the promise of subsidized food in exchange for votes. The "Pax Madurista" turned out to be short...

Week of January 8
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jan 2018

Congressional representative Cristiane Brasil (PTB-RJ) takes over as Minister of Labor on Tuesday, January 9. Rede will define the pre-electoral agenda for Marina Silva, the party’s presidential candidate. On Saturday, January 13, state leaders of the PT party organize an act in defense of former...

A new vice-president was elected
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Jan 2018

After three months of political uncertainty, the destiny of former Vice-President Jorge Glass, sentenced to six years of prison, was sealed this past Saturday when legislators voted for Deputy Vice-President Maria Alejandra Vicuna to continue in office. Vicuna, once an enthusiastic Correista who ...

The resumption of investments: At what pace?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jan 2018

There are no longer any doubts that Brazil’s economy is recovering, and that its driving force, on the aggregate demand side, is household consumption. Although fixed capital investments grew in the third quarter of 2017 after a long sequence of declines, there are no indications yet of anything ...

Some things to watch for in 2018: Part One
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Jan 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Because China still has debt capacity, GDP growth in 2018 will be broadly equal to whatever Beijing sets as its GDP growth target. It is extremely unlikely, however, that Beijing will set the target at anywhere close to the level that allows regulat...

Political and economic update
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jan 2018

After a jury found former Halk Bank EVP Hakan Atilla guilty of 5 charges, fears of wide-spread fines or sanctions on Turkish banks rose. Ankara, too, seems aware of the danger, reportedly initiating backchannel talks with Washington D.C. to mitigate the damage.The White House is likely to present...

Stability
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 04 Jan 2018

Very little is left unknown as Putin announced his candidacy in the upcoming March 2018 presidential election while Alexei Navalny was denied registration. No other opposition leaders are putting up a fight because the very predictable outcome is not worth their investment. With no real oppositio...

Government expects the 2017 fiscal deficit below target
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2018

The Economy Ministry released the government's new macro forecast the other day. In this, they estimated the 2017 fiscal deficit at 1.9% of GDP, exactly the same level as the 2016 actual, and conveniently below the 2.4% annual target. An important contribution to this relatively good result was a...

Hakan Atilla found guilty, worst-case scenarios operative
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2018

A jury found a former VP of state-owned lender Halkbank, Mr. Hakan Atilla, guilty on 5 charges, including bank fraud and conspiracy to violate U.S. sanctions law. Judge Richard Berman scheduled Atilla to be sentenced on April 11. He may face 30 years in prison, or more. His lawyers will appeal th...

The systemic risk of private-public partnerships
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jan 2018

• Regulatory Arbitrage. China is promoting Private-Public Partnerships (PPP) as the new way to stimulate the economy and bypass restrictions on local debt. • Local Debt. This is implicit debt of local governments. Holders of Rmb1.28 trillion of domestic LGFV bonds and $34.0 billion of foreign LG...

There is no free lunch, Q.E.D.
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2018

Consumer prices rose by a higher-than-expected 0.7% in December, but thanks to base effects (e.g., food), the 12-month rate has eased to 11.9%, from 13% in November. Likewise, producer prices eased to 15.5% in December from 17.3% in November but needless to say, headline inflation remains highly ...

Three wishes for the economy in 2018
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 01 Jan 2018

1. Much more activity under Build Build Build (BBB), government’s massive P8.1 trillion medium-term infrastructure program that has been likened to a battleship that will be hard to stop once it has gathered momentum. The passage of the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Act puts s...

A nice Christmas gift from the EU Commission
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2017

In our December report, we wrote that the parallel achievement of the government's end-year spending targets, especially to disburse HUF 2500 bn to local beneficiaries under EU development programs in full-year 2017, and compliance with the legal requirement to reduce the gross debt ratio during ...

Sweet and Sour Year End
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Dec 2017

The year closes with a mix of good and bad data and news. Politically, the government managed to pass its economic agenda through Congress (tax reform, fiscal responsibility, transfer to provinces, social security, financial transaction tax and 2018 budget ), with the support of the traditional P...

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