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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic Recovery in Danger of Being Derailed by Political Turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Apr 2017

Summary and Assumptions: • South Africa’s Growth: Economic growth in South Africa for 2016 came at a post 2008/09 financial crisis low of 0.3%. Real growth however tuned negative during the last quarter of 2016 as it contracted by 0.3%, following a growth rate of 0.4% in the third quarter of 201...

A year of Groysman Cabinet: None is Ready to Change the Government
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Apr 2017

On Friday, April 14th there expired a year of immunity for the Cabinet of Volodymyr Groysman. Now the parliament will be evaluating Prime-Minister performance. Politicians, experts and journalists actively discuss achievements and failures of the Cabinet. General impression – the key political pl...

​Attention shifts from legitimacy to hawkish policies
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Apr 2017

CHP, HDP and at least two of the dissidents of nationalist MHP are lodging complaints about voting irregularities with the High Election Board (HEB). I hear a torrent of allegations about voter intimidation and wholesale theft or doctoring of votes, of which one sample is linked here but I’m unab...

Week of April 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2017

Another short week due to the Friday holiday (Tiradentes). The rapporteur of Pension Reform presents his report on Tuesday, April 18. Once again, the Lower House tries to vote on the bill on states’ debt. This week’s Talking Points: • The political impact of Fachin’s list • Temer’s reaction...

What’s Happening With Real Retail Sales?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2017

In February, the IBGE (national statistics office) estimates that real retail sales took a large step upward, but clarifies that this is due to a methodological revision, which is done periodically. Apparently, the increase cannot be interpreted as a trend change, but rather only a once and for a...

Country Overview
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 17 Apr 2017

Rising deficits and net debt-to-GDP demonstrate a deterioration of the fiscal situation, despite the recent tax reform and Ecopetrol profits. The government’s addition to the budget (7.7 trillion COP) underscores the need for increased revenue. The economy is slowing and inflation is declining, s...

​Erdogan promises capital punishment, as opposition furious about irregularities
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2017 · 3 responses

Since the chairman of the High Election Board (HEB) certified (unofficially) the YES victory, I can declare Mr. Erdogan the first executive president of Turkey. The margin was slim; YES side garnered only 51.4% of the eligible votes. The resilience of the NO vote, despite the almost insurmountabl...

YES camp wins a narrow victory, I suppose
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2017

As I write these lines, PM Yildirim is giving his victory speech, because Turkey’s semi-official news agency Anatolian Agency announced the results of the presidential referendum. The constitutional amendments granting president Erdogan broad executive powers were approved by a margin of 51.3% to...

Clouds on the Horizon
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Apr 2017

​Venezuela made the first heavy payment of 2017 on April 12: $2.1 billion in principal and interest on the Pdvsa 2017 bond and $122 million in interest on the Pdvsa 2027 and 2037 bonds. But another $8.2 billion are still due this year: $3.9 billion on Pdvsa bonds, $2.2 billion in sovereign bonds,...

The Central bank cuts policy rate by 1 ppt down to 13%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Apr 2017

Today the Board of Directors of the Central bank cut policy rate by 1ppt down to 13%. This decision was quite surprising after Valeria Hontareva, the Head of the Central bank announced her resignation from May 10th. We expected the Board of Directors to take a pause till the day new Head of the C...

Economics: Public Finance Challenges Grow
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Reports released last week by the Ministry of Finance provided insight into the recent evolution of the Mexican economy as well as the recent evolution of, and prospects for, both public finance and the country’s macroeconomic context. On one hand, the ministry published public sector financi...

Politics: Further Evidence of a PAN-Morena Race
MEXICO · Report · 12 Apr 2017

The polling data regarding the 2018 presidential election points to some clear trends. The incumbent PRI’s prospects have worsened considerably. Just since our November poll the percentage of those who picked the PRI as their choice in the presidential contest fell seven points to 19%. A year...

​BCRA tightens again monetary policy, will the economy stand the pressure?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 12 Apr 2017

In Yesterday’s Monetary Policy Meeting, the BCRA decided to raise its reference rate by 150bps. It maintained the 75bps spread around it to define the 7 days active and passive repo rates. This represents the first hike since February 2016 and brings the reference rate back to where it was in Nov...

How is investment faring?
INDIA · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Micro data about investment is reliable and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, we are now able to observe the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jan-Mar 2017 quarter. The broad picture of a stalling of aggregate nominal investment under imp...

Inflation risk from rice policy?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Apr 2017

Many economic watchers have raised concerns about recent increases in consumer prices. From below 2% in the 16 months to August 2016, the headline inflation rate climbed past 3% in February and March 2017, with the BSP expecting the uptrend to continue through 3Q17, when inflation is forecast to...

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