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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of April 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2017

The general workers’ strike scheduled for Friday is expected to see significant support and bring chaos to cities throughout the country. The Lower House may conclude voting on states’ debt. Labor Reform is also on the voting agenda. The Special Committee on Pension Reform discusses the report by...

Inflation Continues Falling
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2017

For the first time since January 2010, inflation accumulated over the preceding 12 months is now below the target, and all signs are that the deceleration process will continue in the coming months. The recession is nearing its end, but the tendency will be for very slow recovery. This, along wit...

Can Moreno Govern a Divided Country?
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2017 · 1 response

President-elect Lenín Moreno refused all invitations to debate during the two months of campaigning – as he was probably self-conscious about his nonetheless-evident weaknesses. After a complicated and almost violent campaign that ended with a recount of close to 1.2 million votes, he was finall...

Time for a Strong Macro Stimulus
PERU · In Brief · 23 Apr 2017

After a disappointing GDP growth in February (0.7% y/y), leading indicators suggest a much worse performance for March – the monthly impact of El Niño phenomenon at its peak. A negative growth rate for that month is expected, and we would not be surprised to see GDP dropping by as much as 1% y/y ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 23 Apr 2017 · 1 response

We begin by laying out the evidence about the fairness of the referendum voting. From a legal viewpoint, the High Election Council ruling to count the unstamped ballot slips weakened voter security and made it difficult to detect fraud. On the other hand, there is not enough evidence that the HEC...

Another failed attempt to arrest ‘big fish’
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2017

Last Thursday, on April 20th National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) put under detention another well-known rent-seeker Mykola Martynenko. Martynenko is the purse of ‘People’s front’ party led by ex-prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He was arrested under suspicion of abusing $17.28 million of fund...

Time to Move On
INDONESIA · Report · 21 Apr 2017

The gubernatorial election in Jakarta was accomplished peacefully. Police backed by the Army did a great job in defusing the mobilization of people from outside Jakarta who would have liked to oversee the election and indirectly might have intervened in the polling process. The quick count by all...

Lula’s electoral potential increases, the PSDB leads rejection and opens field for outsider candidates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2017 · 1 response

​Ibope released a poll to measure the electoral potential of possible pre-candidates in the 2018 presidential race. The poll was conducted on April 7-11, before the release of the content of the Odebrecht plea bargain deals.

OK given to an agreement between Odebretch and the Office of the General Attorney
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 20 Apr 2017

In what can be interpreted as a victory for the government, yesterday a judge approved the terms of an agreement between Odebretch and the Office of the General Attorney through which the firm accepts to cooperate with the investigation on kickbacks on infrastructure projects and agrees to pay a ...

Hopes for Deliverance
CHILE · Report · 20 Apr 2017

The latest economic activity data are discouraging, with growth at only about 1% in February, and manufacturing production and real retail output negative, y/y. Though lending to the private sector rebounded in March, banks in Q1 saw a deterioration in the conditions for lending supply and demand...

Is the legitimacy debate relevant?
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Apr 2017

It is my duty to provide objective and relevant coverage of political events in Turkey. Objectively speaking, I see evidence serious enough to suggest that voting irregularities in the presidential referendum warrant a very serious probe. But, is the legitimacy of the ballot relevant? Could the o...

Central Bank set the budget deficit at 2.8% of GDP, 0.5 points above target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 19 Apr 2017

The Central Bank has released its preliminary report of the performance of the economy of the Dominican Republic in 2016. Although figures for aggregate GDP growth, employment, inflation, external accounts and monetary aggregates are not different from what it has been made public before, the ban...

PM Orbán on a Collision Course with the EU
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2017

Following a relatively uneventful period in politics, PM Orbán has suddenly gotten onto a direct collision course with the EU, in addition to apparently alienating a large number of domestic intellectuals in recent weeks. This came after he launched an attack on civil organizations and the Centra...

El Salvador Misses April Payment of Pension Certificates
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 18 Apr 2017

The facts: on Friday April 7th, 2017, the government started to miss debt payments to the private pension funds (Certificados de Inversión Previsional through the trust fund for pensions created in 2006), to finance annual outlays of the PAYG system (currently close to $500 million yearly). By mi...

Early Spring Galvanization
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2017

The largest street protests in five years took place in Moscow and almost one hundred other locations following Alexei Navalny’s Anticorruption Foundation’s publishing a report accusing Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of corruption. Although the protests were curbed by the police, they played into...

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