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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Picture Darkens
MEXICO · Report · 05 May 2016

Hard indicators published in April painted a more somber picture of the Mexican economy, beginning with a 14.2% plunge in the number of cars and light trucks exported in March, and an 11% fall in the number made, despite record domestic demand. Manufacturing export activity in general has shrunk,...

​Farewell to Davutoglu..and parliamentary democracy
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

At the day the EU Commission proposed lifting the visa barrier to Turkish citizens, president Erdogan decided to dismiss premier Davutoglu, denying him the biggest victory of his brief career and demonstrating convincingly that parliamentary democracy is dead in Turkey. To remind readers, Erdogan...

Reuters news
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

Replying to your queries, I'm posting the Reuters news item in Turkish I referred to in my morning update ANALİZ-Davutoğlu ile anayasa başta olmak üzere bazı konularda fikir ayrılığına düşen Erdoğan, AKP'de olağanüstü kongre için harekete geçebilir - Reuters News 03-May-2016 05:25:30 PM Ercan Gur...

The PGR torpedoes Lula’s political future
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2016

The decisions by the Prosecutor General of the Republic (PGR) this Tuesday seriously compromise Lula’s political future. In addition, they reinforce the definitive impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and place the pre-eminent figures of the Lula-PT movement in a precarious situation, possibly making th...

A 'Greek tax' may be manufactured in Brussels?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 May 2016

Today's local press in Budapest is quoting Financial Times that the EU Commission is about to announce a plan to force those member states that refuse to take in refugees allocated to them through a mandatory quota system to pay a penalty of €0.25 million per refugee. Most probably, this would no...

​Turkish politics to remain under heavy fog
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 May 2016 · 1 response

I don’t intend to turn this website into a daily blog, but stability in Turkish politics is evaporating very rapidly. I felt it incumbent upon myself to warn my readers that according to some news outlets premier Davutoglu might offer his resignation to president Erdogan tonight. While I find the...

Disinflation Illusion Continues
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised once again on the downside in April, coming in at a better than expected 0.8%, m/m, thanks to a very sharp fall in food inflation – the latter constituting the best April on record, since the new series began in 2003. Twelve-month CPI-inflation hence dropped fur...

A hike announcing future hikes
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 May 2016

As we anticipated, on April 30 President Maduro announced a 30 percent minimum wage effective on May 1. This is the first time since 2008 that a hike is enacted on May 1 without announcing further steps. We hold to our view that there will be four wage hikes this year, and Maduro’s statement that...

​Earthquake in AKP
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 May 2016

In our recently published Quarterly Report, I predicted that political risks might begin to be discounted by markets as early as by June or July. One of these risks was the growing rift between president Erdogan and PM Davutoglu. Developments on Friday and over the weekend might possibly expedite...

Week of May 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2016

The Impeachment Committee in the Senate is expected to approve the admissibility of the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff on Friday. The PMDB will release a document detailing proposals for education and healthcare, and against corruption. The PSDB will decide on its participation in an eventual Teme...

The MNB's educational foundations are now officially world-(in)famous
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2016

Today, the case of the MNB's educational foundations, which have become a key political issue domestically over the last two weeks or so, have made it to the front page of the Economist. The paper describes the case as a stupid political scandal, and indeed it is one of that type, most probably w...

An increasingly fragile financial sector
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 May 2016

• China’s financial system is becoming increasingly complicated and confused (not to mention confusing), and this is most likely a consequence of a contraction of PBoC reserves (after two decades of expansion) and what we can only assume is a rising amount of unrecognized bad debt, which ties up ...

Q1 2016 preliminary results: 6.1% GDP growth and a decline in unemployment
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 May 2016

The Central Bank announced that economic activity starts up strongly in 2016. Official figures set GDP growth in Q1 2016 at 6.1% compared to q1 2015. Although in January the short term indicator of economic activity reflected a relatively low growth, in February and March activities picked up sig...

The Labor Market Continues to Deteriorate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 May 2016

The clearest reflection of the severe recession, which is far from over, is the worsening of the labor market. The consequences are a reduction in the level of employment and real wages, accentuating the contraction of household consumption and reducing tax receipts, making the fiscal adjustment ...

Resilient Yet Vulnerable
TURKEY · Forecast · 01 May 2016

After a very rough start into the year, Turkish markets are benefitting greatly from the dramatic improvement in global risk appetite. Thanks to this supportive backdrop and with headline inflation in cyclical decline, largely owing to lower food prices and base effects, the CBRT has started anot...

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